The impetus for the blockade on the Strait goes away when the US pulls out. Even the UAE said as much as which is why they are currently trying to pass a UN Security Council Resolution stating as much and get the RoW to show enough teeth to get Iran to back down.

You can get decent grads from good schools for $65k.

1. Too big to fail (SalesForce, ServiceNow, ServiceTitan, Shopify). They’re targeting megacorps’ core business operations. Switching costs are too high. They will survive,

2. B2B non-core (PagerDuty, Vanta, Monday, Atlassian). They’re going to have stiff competition and most here will fail or merge/consolidate. They have the most to lose because they’re non-core to a business’s success and pricing pressures will cause many of them will be easily vibecoded with enough time. The large TAM here will attract hundreds of competitors each.

3. Consumer SaaS (Notion, Canva, Grammarly, Dribbble). They're good as dead and can be buried.

The real story is that SOME startups made up of one person (or small number of engineers) will do it, and create pricing pressures against Workday, or DocuSign, or other B2B SaaS.

There's currently no other DA other than Tesla's FSD available in the US that will work on city streets and highways.

CoreCLR NativeAOT is already shipping real games on Nintendo, PS5, and Xbox.

JIT isn't allowed on iPhones either, and this is what NativeAOT solves. Also, .NET is moving WASM support to CoreCLR (rather than mono) in an upcoming version as well.

Looks like we're headed back to the internal IT days of building customized LoB apps.

If there is a magnitude increase in compute (TPUs, NPUs, etc) over the next 3-5 years then even marginal increases in LLM usability will take white collar jobs.

If there is an exponential increase in power (fusion) and compute (quantum) combined with improvements in robotics and you're in the territory where humans can entirely be replaced in all industries (blue collar, white collar, doctors, lawyers, etc).

But now it’s time to better understand why a Powerwall or other wall-mounted units are so much more expensive. I understand UL-listing costs, marketing, warranty, and other things are thrown in, but it’s $75/kwh versus $1000/kwh, a 13x difference.

If even at a $100/kwh price point all homeowners need to get 10-20kwh in batteries just to help peak shave the grid and save tons of money since batteries will be a fraction of the cost of grid power.

A Tesla Powerwall2 retails for about $13k for 13kWh. No way the raw manufacturing costs are $65 for 77 of them.