Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49541983

Points: 1

# Comments: 0

Pre-prints are basically a mailinglist where you post your paper prior to peer review.

The value over a simple mailinglist is:

1. Stable URL and citation to enable other work and discussions to cite and reference it.

2. Versioning of the paper, allowing updates to be made without having mail out the paper, while allowing everyone to find all prior versions

3. Host for a PDF and data that might be quite large

4. Centralized searchable long term archive of scientific papers

5. Scalability, arxiv gets 30,000 submissions a day, no one wants to receive 30,000 PDFs in their inbox everyday

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49350596

Points: 1

# Comments: 0

What the people that can monetize it? Microsoft, X, IBM, Salesforce, Discord, Google

Microsoft would likely buy OpenAI due to their investment and integration with OpenAI. Making Anthropic not that valuable.

Google would likely buy Anthropic due to their investment and ties to Anthropic.

X, Salesforce maybe. Not sure Discord has the money. No idea if IBM capable of growing.

All this changes if Anthropic figures out a moat/sticky product that doesn't just depend on having the best LLM. If they pull off https://claude.com/solutions/healthcare then all bets are off.

My case is based on the assumption that Anthropic will not hit RSI or if it does RSI rapidly hits a wall. Faster your growth curve, the faster you eat all the low hanging fruit and s-curve. I could be wrong here, maybe RSI will cause a hard takeoff singularity by 2030 and just keep going, but if that happens the world fundamentally changes.

Google spending money on competing head to head with your LLMs is a waste of money for Google. If anthropic wins, Google copies their approach, buys anthropic for cheap or both. All the investors throwing money into OpenAI, Anthropic, are just accidentally subsidizing Google's product development. Google shouldn't spend its AI research capital in an arms race with Anthropic but instead should invest in AI approaches that no one else is investigating at scale. That way Google can hedge against LLMs hitting a wall.

There is a real but small danger to Google that Anthropic replaces Google as a search engine, but that is an uphill fight for Anthropic. Google has massive brand recognition, network effects with gmail and chrome, Anthropic can't just copy what works from Google. On the other hand Google can copy what works for Anthropic. Google would have to play poorly to lose that fight.

Probably the worse case for Google is that software becomes so cheap and easy to create and maintain that all of Google's product offerings become commoditized. Even in that world Google has a lock on infrastructure. Perhaps ASI software creation completely removes that as well? If so we are living in a post-singularity world and probably the stockmarket doesn't exist anymore either.

> Still, using certificate in OpenSSH (instead of public key) is easier for me once it starts to scale beyond 5 or more hosts. Even do dual-cert, by host and by user combo, while using brittle OpenLDAP-OpenSSH for other class of users.

SSH certificates are fantastic. OPKSSH wouldn't work without them.

> And smashed all my notes on certificates and OpenSSH on my ad-free, revenue-free, JS-free Pelican blog. It's personal on both note-wise and server.

Will check it out.

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49123867

Points: 10

# Comments: 2

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49113838

Points: 2

# Comments: 0

The solution is not making humans more virtuous but reducing the capability and the harm done that unethical humans can do.

> If we cannot trust them with the very basics of ethical behavior they are absolutely in the wrong job and there need to be very clear consequences.

Police should not be trusted because they are police. There should be audits and controls that prevent abuse and unethical behavior. Small unethical behaviors should result in corrective measures but not termination, since when the punishment becomes too great you create incentives for cover ups or scapegoats. A small number of minor punishments, that catch people as soon as they step over the line, functions better as a deterrent than a large scale punishments that are unlikely to be actually enforced. Granted if a police officer does a major crime, they should face serious consequences, but the goal should be to creating a system that makes major crimes by police less likely. If they know they will get caught for minor crimes, they are less likely to commit bigger crimes.

1. The cost of arrest. Actually sending someone to pick the person up and put them in handcuffs, process and change them.

2. The cost of prosecution. Having lawyers build a case, schedule a judge and courtroom.

3. The cost of enforcement. Putting someone in prison or threatening to put them in prison if they don't pay back what is stolen. Tracking if they paid it back. If they get probation it is cheaper but a probation officer is required.

These are expensive and use limited resources. Policing and governments prioritize these resources for more serious crimes like murder. Constitutional rights, including due process dramatically increase these costs. Mass surveillance made investigation and determining who did what for minor crimes done in public much much cheaper, so we just hit the next cost bottleneck.

The solution to the enforcement bottleneck is automated enforcement. This will likely be rolled out over the next ten to twenty years. If you steal from a store, you get banned from the entire story chain. This means living life very difficult, so you pay a fine. It is likely that stores will make lots of mistakes and flag innocent people, but most people will pay the fine because it is more convenient.

The situation is entirely different in a police state with no constitutional protections. The government can simply lock you out of everything you need to live because you did buy enough Dear Leader portraits this quarter. You can't use your car, can't call a ride share, can't catch a bus, can't buy food, can't get electricity to heat your house to keep your family comfortable. Instead of a fine, you need to walk to closest detention center, confess your guilt, lock yourself in and do manual labor and reeducation until the state allows you to leave. This system requires no guards.

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48404142

Points: 4

# Comments: 0

> I think americans have the false belief that US is some of kind of benevolent force acting for the good of the world and promoting freedom and democracy.

A state can still make mistakes without saying it is good in everyway

No one knows but the Iranian leadership. The Iranian leadership has been famously bad at modeling the intentions and motivations of other nations leaderships. A bolt of the blue decapitation strike, followed by the US having plan if Iran closes the straits which is the obvious response by Iran, does at face value appear to be the work of a madman. Now in the US we might conclude that Trump and Hegseth are just wildly incompetent and unprepared, but it seems likely to me that Iranian leadership see irrationality instead of incompetence.