Is this a creative way of arguing that landlords are a net loss for the country? Because I would like to remind you that MANY people cannot afford to buy homes, and renting is how they make sure they don't become homeless.

You would also be correct if your risk estimate concluded that Tesla FSD has arguably killed people, makes mistakes humans would not, can glitch, and has no one to hold accountable. For these reasons, you choose not to use it.

It gets worse. People with Down’s syndrome face all kinds of health issues. *Half* are born with heart defects. They have higher risk of hearing loss, vision problems, sleep apnoea, thyroid disease, coeliac disease, digestive problems, epilepsy, infections and leukaemia. They also have elevated risk of dementia later in life.

This is a hellish existence which no one would wish on their worst enemy. It's hell for the sufferers and it's hell for the family.

[There is plenty of data to support the claim that AI continues to improve, even exponentially.](https://epoch.ai/trends)

As for benchmarks I feel compelled to remind you that as soon as a metric becomes a goal, it ceases to be a useful metric. The models optimise for solving the benchmark and we create new benchmarks to assess broader intelligence. As models converge on 100%, progress obviously slows. That doesn't mean intelligence isn't improving fast. It just means that that benchmark is being well served and we need other benchmarks to assess other forms of intelligence.

I would like to take your bet that we're near the top of the curve. I take the side of Geoffrey Hinton, the Nobel Prize laureate scientist known for his work on artificial neural networks. He believes AI is getting better even faster than he predicted. He estimates that every seven months AI becomes able to handle tasks twice as long.

I sense that statistics and benchmarks and research and statements from the world’s greatest academics won’t sway you, so maybe I’ll give you a personal anecdote. I have suffered from a condition my whole life called bile acid malabsorption. It caused chronic diarrhoea, pain, arthritis, dehydration, insomnia, and more. I spent decades searching for an answer. Dozens of different tests. Eventually doctors just said I was depressed and prescribed me antidepressants. They didn’t help. On the bad days I considered ending my life.

In desperation I turned to ChatGPT. Over months I described my symptoms, triggers, diet, timing, etc. We “sparred” with each other over assumptions and ideas. I gave it all my medical history. All the tests. Eventually it concluded that BAM was likely (plus another few options). So I pushed my doctor for a specialist referral. The specialist agreed to a scan based on the symptoms. It was confirmed. I’ve been taking some cheap medication each day now and it has changed my life.

I know others for whom ChatGPT has changed their lives in similar ways. Research shows LLMs are better than doctors already in many cases at diagnosis. They are improving at an exponential rate.

To point, the economic uncertainties around geopolitics, AI, and war, plus irresponsible debt spending by governments and the prospect of QE (and higher inflation), is pushing long term rates steadily higher. There’s a reasonable chance that 30y treasuries are nearing 6% by the end of next year. Remember that rates and bond prices are inversely related. Anyone who holds bonds in this market will likely lose money. Holding to maturity won’t help much either because if inflation continues to rise, as is a major concern, most or all of that 5% yield gets eaten.

This isn’t how valuations work. The PE ratio isn’t fixed. It doesn’t scale with revenue. It’s based on projected future growth. This kind of deal is expected, meaning this deal likely won’t move SpaceX’s market cap much. Certainly not by anywhere close to $1T. That’s +60% of the entire pre-IPO market cap.

Google is doing this because they need more compute and TSMC is booked out for years.

I hope you guys find a better way forward. I have affinity for your people and culture and I think most of you have big hearts and mean well.