LLMs are proving to be very much force multipliers of the kind of developer you already are, and of those who report a 10x increase in productivity they're probably all being genuine. Whether that 10x is of careful, thoughtful choices or reckless rough-shod slop though is really an artifact of the developers themselves. I've been saying from the beginning that your effectiveness with LLMs is roughly equivalent to your ability to get effective results out of a real team of human contractors.

I've been working my way up from a 3090 system and I've been surprised by how underwhelming even the finetunes are for complex coding tasks, once you've worked with Opus. Does it get better? As in, noticeably and not just "hallucinates a few minutes later than usual"?

Assuming, of course, that your legal team signs off on their assurance not to train on or store your data with said Enterprise plans.

To be clear, I totally get the idea of running local LLMs for toy reasons. But in a business context the sell on a stack of Mac Pros seems misguided at best.

For the same price in API calls, you could fund AI driven development across a small team for quite a long while.

Whether that remains the case once those models are no longer subsidized, TBD. But as of today the comparison isn't even close.

And you are highlighting exactly what I'm pointing out, which is that if your process is so rigid and overfit that your org is regularly missing out on obvious solutions then the thing you should be solving is the process rather than trying to create "wolves". The concept of a team needing someone that consistently "breaks the rules" so that you can do the right thing is a glaring red flag that you have a bigger picture problem.

It's strange to intentionally try to place or manufacture mavericks within your org for (at least) two reasons:

1. They're emergent phenomena. It's probably more valuable on average to examine WHY someone skipping all of your processes is effective than it is to make the conditions right for someone to become that maverick. Theoretically anyone CAN be that person, but unless something is actively going wrong it probably won't happen.

2. Process exists because it makes your org more efficient. When you start building your teams around the idea of someone explicitly being the maverick(s), ask yourself: "Who exactly is going to reconcile all of this against the framework that the entire rest of the company runs on? Is the rest of that person's team relegated to damage control and cleanup crew, and is that actually more effective than having an equivalent number of mid-level performers all pulling in the same direction?"

In the world of tech, the alleged 10x-er often manifests itself as: Tech Debt, but at High Volume™!

No! Not this time, at least. In hindsight everything was named and organized terribly and it hasn't improved much since.

If you haven't seen it in person, it is now incredibly common for children as young as 1 or 2 to be handed an iPad and driven down an algorithmic tunnel of AI generated content with multiple videos overlaid on top. I've seen multiple examples of children scrolling rapidly through videos of Disney characters getting their heads chopped off to Five Nights at Freddy's music while laughing hysterically. They do this for hours. Every day. It's truly horrifying.

Parents are just as poorly equipped at dealing with this as the children are, the difference being that at least their brains have already fully developed so that there is no lasting permanent damage.

I've been a reluctant MacBook user for 15 years now thanks to it being the de-facto hardware of tech, but for the first time ever since adopting first the M1 Pro and then an M2 Pro I find myself thinking: I could not possibly justify buying literally any other laptop so long as this standard exists.

Being able to run serious developer workflows silently (full kubernetes clusters, compilers, VSCode, multitudes of corpo office suite products etc), for multiple days at a time on a single charge is baffling. And if I leave it closed for a week at 80% battery, not only does that percentage remain nearly the same when resumed-- it wakes instantly! No hibernation wake time shenanigans. The only class of device which even comes close to being comparable are high end e-ink readers, and an e-ink reader STILL loses on wake time by comparison.

I'm at the point now where I'm desperately in need of an upgrade for my 8 year old personal laptop, but I'm holding off indefinitely until I discover something with a similar level of battery performance that can run Linux. As I understand it, the firmware that supports that insane battery life and specifically the suspend functionality that allows it to draw nearly zero power when closed isn't supported by any Linux distro or I would have already purchased another MacBook for personal use.

If just 1% of all software developers are writing near-flawless code to spec, that's still about 287,000 people in the world. They're relatively accessible and the chances of you being able to work with one on a short timetable is actually pretty high.

By comparison: GC's, architects, builders at that level are far, far more rare by the numbers + highly localized + are usually mired in many years-long projects simultaneously. They do not need your business, are paid whatever price they ask, and are usually booked far in advance.

Even so! If you even get the hint that someone in that situation is willing to work with you it will save you far more time and money to wait for that person than to try going with someone available that you feel alright about. If they're readily available, it's because they are not in demand. Think about why that might be. If you can afford to, waiting for the person you actually want to work with is the better option every. single. time.

In the states at least if you're using public transit it's generally as an intentional time / cost tradeoff. That's not a mystery and taking a point-to-point schedule and comparing that against public transit constraints doesn't really prove much.