I would say in 50 years max this is a solved problem. I estimate 30 years and would go down as early as 20 years.

Chess is not an interesting target for AI Research and not for AGI. Your checkbook doesn't get balanced just beause Magnus Carlsen is doing it for you. You probably don't want him to balance your books i assume.

1. I have not been conditioned, i just understand what it means if you have a lot of compute available to you. Autoresearch becomes feasable, doing a million experiments becomes feasable

2. never? Thats just not true? But yes AI/compute is a significiant part, even with the Navier–Stokes topic: Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpoege said that AI helped them

3. I'm not training these bots and see big issues for society. The most basic ones: Our company spends now millions on AI Tokens and i wouldn't wanna go back. AI helps me to analyse things faster, debug things faster, write code faster etc. and it only gets better. But what does it mean if your devs are now 5-10% more expensive? A reduction of workforce and reduction in budget for consultans.

This is real impact and there are A LOT easier jobs out there on a computer than software development.

Normally technology starts with the most expensive stuff first, we automated away a lot of these things, with AI you start at the bottom. This has significant impact on a lot of normal people. Blender support just got so much better, this will affect a lot of basic blender developers.

And this will continue.

Not having jobs for people in a capatilstic world is not good for society if you dont have an answer for this.

Taking it seriuos and then figuring out its not that dangerious is probably a 1000 times better than the opposite.

And the last Ubuntu LTS patch had the most CVEs fixed i ever seen. After Snowden, you can assume a lot more of what i thought would be 'tin foil hat' might just have happened like a massive exploit scheme of CVEs.

Or things like Stuxnet.

You always had to be an expert somehow, now you can throw compute at it. Just imagine a USA, China, russian or israely hackergroup having their uncensored models running in secret datacenters with very basic prompts because they don't care.

It would be weird tbh if state actors/hackers aren't doing that yet which already shows us one big problem with ai:

AI is technology you have to use now and you have to invest. If you are not, someone else will break into your systems.

And I didn't meant Sam Altman or Dario with the smartest people. I meant the professors who threw their tenure out and went back to the industry, top researchers, mathematitions, nobelarians.

And besides Altman and Daris, Demis, Fei-Fei Li, Lecun, Ilya Sutskever are very well known and are very smart.

We and a LLM are doing the same thing: trying things out while skipping unrealistic/wrong things.

If an LLM can do the same thing as we do but a lot faster, t already won and this is just another example.

But come one don't repeat stuff like this:

"Remember this man has been saying software development will be solved in “6-12 months” forever now."

Don't downplay if people get timelines a little bit wrong. No one could even imagine a system writing and analysing code just a few years back.

These people are trying to handle something very unique. And while they have access to information we do not have, even more peple are absolutly oblivouse that AI/AGI is a real risk to their lives (job loss etc.)

You do understand that the USA would be in a recession without AI right? And that these billions of invest are driipling down into your economy right?

Did I see that I could get rich with bitcoins investing until 100k and selling everything? For sure not. But i already saw basic flaws of crypto when it came out.

Hyperloop? I cried out very early on how dangeriuos this is and how stupid and that no one wants to ride in a small tube without proper precautions (i was wrong here, some poeple really use that las vegas tube).

But lets be clear about LLM: The first thing which motivated me to really look into this was a random YouTube video of someone talking/writing to GPT-3 and ask it to simulate being a mysql server. And it simulated this flawless. A table creation statement, 3 inserts and a working select statement.

That showed me something: The chance that someone trained that 'thing' to be able to simulate a random mysql server was very low. I then tried it and the first thing not happened: I wasn't able to find the flaw. You know when Google IO or Apple Keynotes are happening and you get your hands on any demo and you live in a differen country or speak a different language or you are just not in San Francisco were most demos were maid for, it breaks fast. GPT-3 didn't break fast. I was able to interleave english with german words, no issue.

And i wasn't following LLMs before, i was following progress in machine learning and machine learning started to get more and more traction.

I can now prompt a tremendes amount of generic things to a neural network and it responds very convincing.

I have never seen technology advancing that fast and its quite clear what we have to still build around this new technology. We are not even were we will be and its obviouse.

Only when we build all the stuff (ai layer, ai platforms, ai chips, language and skill specific models, ...) and then starting to see any plateu we can stop keeping an eye on it.

And while we do that, everything just got a little bit better again and another interseting new thing was discoveed about LLMs, AI, AGI etc.

Right now we are in the middle of a reinforcement learning phase which will bring even more.

These 'no consciousness' thing already took jobs from people. I was planing to pay an blender artist money on fiverr for a project, since Opus 5.0 it was just able to do this for me without fiverr.

I don't think these unscrupulous guys are wrong. I'm following this area for a decade and we might have hit an inflection point: We have the compute, apparently we have the money as a society to build this massive amout of compute, we have also everything digital. It doesn't matter what it is, everything we have is digital. Every training material, every best practice tips and tricks everythign is digital.

You can be as dismissive about all of this as you want, but when the economy of a whole planet invest the most money it ever had into one area of research, you should try to keep an eye of where this is going.

And these random technologies? Random people invested in these for different reasons for sure, but the investment into AI is a lot broader with a lot more money behind it. The richest companies on the planet with the smartest people on the planet are doing one thing: Investing in AI.

I have watched YouTube Videos of trusted people and in them the LLM reads a paper and implements the simulation result of the paper.

Yesterday a LLM deciphyered an old text.

LLMs helped to solve a millenium problem.

Give an LLM access to proper compute and it will beat most people on the planet. Do you really think if you would get unlimited tokens and a compute cluster that something like a fable or astra frontiermodel setup couldn't build a better chess engine?

When do you draw the line of LLM is just some stupid thing vs. AI/AGI?

And Zuckerberg bought so much land and bunkers, he is prepared for shit hitting the fan. After all he doesn't care what his platform did to humanity anyway.

Try it out. Ask Opus 4.8 to do anything in 3d. Do the same with Fable or Astra.

Just because you list up some type of random technology, doesn't make it an good argument. Metaverse, Hyperloop and the crypto stuff was clearly garbage from the beginning. Easy to dismiss because all of it had massive faults.

Metaverse: The interface wasn't good, content creation was way too hard

Hyperloop: Savety was never an issue for Musk but it was obvoiuse. Peopel were building tunnels for ages.

Crypto: Yeah just beacuse i let my computer run and waste 1kw of energy doesn't mean its suddenly valuable.

NFTs: 'digital scarcity' yeah right XD

But lets be clear, 5 years ago if you would have asked anyone if they could build a system for a billion dollars which you can talk to and it would code stuff for you and use blender and a coputer, that would have been unthinkable.

We have opened up a potential pandoras box without knowing it. Machine learning is now everywere and the amount of compute we install right now is crazy.

Also i'm pretty sure Lecun didn't get his money from thin air so big companies are invested in this one way or the other.

And an LLM can easily, today, just rebuild a chess engine and beat whatever they need to beat. It doesn't make sense to ask a random LLM for a next chess move. Would you ask a random human to beat a chess master?

We have reached peak learning. Its probalby now cheaper to teach 1 LLM something new than teaching it to 100.000 people.

Blender support got a lot better just this month. So much better that its quesitonable if anyone new/young wants to learn blender today.

What might not affect you, might affect millions across the ocean.

A society no longer creating bullshit jobs because there is no reason for it anymore. You have some AI.

Right now a whole industry is transforming (again) but now filling the automation gap we were unable to do because of a shortage of labor or expertise.

Our society already has peak employmet reached, now AI takes away all the random digital jobs too. Someone building a website? Takes 5 minutes. Someone doing odd jobs on fiverr with blender or any other tool? Takes 5 minutes now.

Regression can happen very fast. The Romens were a high level culture and an empire. Gone.

Today you have more people on the planet then ever, everyone who might want to eat and who needs to work something for it.

AI already replaced people, already makes a lot of tasks A LOT cheaper and faster and human independent.

We never had a proper discussion as a society. Most countries have a social system but look at countries like the united states of america: if you are poor, you are fucked.

And AI is not the only thing which is now peaking: Physical AI / Robots are progressing fast, its clear today already that in 50 years these robots will be better than humans (50 years is very conservative).

If we have 10 more golden years due to restructuring and rebuilding things and preparing everything for agents and robots etc. what happens after these years?

If we have 10 or 20 more of these years, what do you think will happen to all the new kids (yours perhaps too?) and jobs and everything?

Riots? Famine? Mass migration? Mass death? Slums?

And don't respond with "enough people will survive this" bullshit. No one is saying that earth as a planet is not surviving. Its the same thing with climate change...