It's the pure AI companies like OpenAI that will hit the wall.

However, the tech companies are increasing their debt enormously. That's the issue.

I believe that some of the private credit is the banks' own private credit arm! It's absolutely mental: the bank can't lend to them so they have a private credit company/division that can skirt around the rules and still provide the capital!

Also, I bet that the Oracle datacenters aren't for Oracle LLC but Oracle Datacenter No 4 LLC so that if it all goes tits up, Oracle LLC walks away!

Unfortunately, that's not the case. Between the big 5 (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon etc.) they're spending more than $600 Billion in 2026! They don't have that much cash lying around so they're selling bonds!

That's debt!

Not only that, they're increasing the bond sales in Europe! I assume that means they're tapped-out in the US!

All this off-the-books stuff, despite being legal but shady, is still debt! Debt has to be paid by someone.

To sum it up: the AI buildout is a highly leveraged, debt-fueled expansion, not an organic, cash-funded software cycle... this will not end well!

They'll be knackered though, unlike a good Herman Miller chair. :-)

We might even be able to afford RAM again!

That means losses. Big losses for some.

I assume that these off-the-books companies can quite literally be pinched off and the debt becomes the banks' problem, so the primary company, i.e. Meta, Oracle, can walk away but the banks will be left holding the bag.

We know what happened the last time the banks played their stupid games!

It won't be framed as bailing out the AI companies. It will be sold to the public as bailing out their pensions and investments.

It's all about the marketing...

However, my real worry is that governments will make these models illegal in the west. They'll cite national security or some other bullshit.

I genuinely believe that will happen and soon!

People talk about a lack of moat with AI companies... that's their moat: Government intervention!

I use Gemini Pro (got it with my 5TB of Google storage) and for a while it seemed if Google had pulled the rug as I was running out of quota after only a few hours. That seems to have been dialled back a bit lately...

I also use Chatbot with Deepseek V4 Pro and GLM 5.2. However, GLM 5.2 seems to eat tokens like crazy as the context increases. Anyway, there isn't a meaningful enough difference between the two to be honest and Deepseek is pretty magical imo.

The point I want to make is that to me it seems clear that China is totally undermining the West with AI. I'm fine with it tbh. As long as more and more AI is released into the wild, rather than locked behind massive token farms like OpenAI then I'll be happy. Don't get me wrong, I can't run Deepseek on my computer at home but someone can!

The US (and the west) has invested trillions at this point into datacenters, chips, bribery/lobbying but it doesn't look like China has dropped the same levels of cash as the west (that's the way it looks to me, at least!) so they can just roll out new models every so often that are more than good enough.

This level of cash burn in means the west has no choice but for this to succeed or every pension fund and stock will tank! And China knows this, hence the push to release more and more really good models.

Anyway, just my $0.02

Google handle the payment and the subscription too (same with Apple) and that's a very common pattern too.

I understand the skepticism though.

I know it sounds a bit cynical but I think that's the case for me in a lot of ways: I love the idea of being able to play the piano. However, I've given it up many times (I'm 51 now).

I think I just prefer the idea of being a piano player but when it comes down to it, I don't have the willpower/dedication/motivation (delete as appropriate) to follow it through.

My 15 yo son, on the other hand, is hell-bent on becoming a pro hockey player (not necessarily the NHL but that's the goal, of course!) and he's working his ass off 6 days a week at various aspects, and missing out on stuff like playing football down the park with his pals after school on a Friday coz he has training).

So, I think for some of us there is a disconnect between the desire to work hard anc become something, and liking purely the idea of being something... I think they're quite different (for me they are!)

The Guid is purely for an external system to grab onto something that I can tie back to an actual row in the database but the external system does not need to know anything about the backend other than .

You "Login with Apple" or "Login with Google". They manage the login entirely and pass me your id and an access token (assuming you pass their login test). I store that in my DB so that your data from the app can sync (the paid-for app syncs your training data to my backend but I match it only based on the Google/Apple id.)

The alternative is that I build my own auth system and I'd need to store something you can type in the next time, e.g. email/password address etc.

If you have an Android/Apple phone you're already authenticated with them. I just need Google/Apple to say "this guy is cool, let him in" and I then use the id to check if you've paid, sync your training data etc.

On its own, the id is useless! Means nothing and cannot be traced back to a person. I genuinely do not know your name, email, what country you come from, GPS data, CC data. Nothing at all!

I don't want your data.

Anyway, working with Google and Apple I realised that I quite literally do not need to store anything identifiable. The only identifier I store is the Apple id and the Google id and unless you steal those and then hack Google and Apple, they are utterly useless.

I do not store emails, names, addresses, nothing. That's the way I want it.

If the data is ever breached, the only thing hackers will see are many many instances of Connor McDavid, Nate Mckinnon and various other famous NHL player names :)

If more companies treated personal data like it was toxic, we'd have less issues with breaches, however, I see it in my day job where the marketing people want to take as much data as possible, all the time!

I guarantee that without constant supervision, he'd use it for everything.

The internet (to stretch your analogy) is more like a shit load of library books that you have to look through but Gemini is the guy that goes and reads the books for you and tells you the answer.

I'm not saying they don't have their uses for me as an adult (I'm a software architect), but for a 15 year old, they absolutely do not have their uses! At all.

At age 15 you know nothing about life. You should learn it yourself, not be told it!

The Integer id is used for joins and looks ups and such but that's it. If I need to send anything to the frontend or outside of the app/DB then that's the UUID.

My son is 15 and I use Google Family Link to control what he does on his phone: it's pretty open for the most part (I receive notifications of installs) but Gemini is a hard-ban.

We've spoken at length of the dangers.

He says his pals use LLMs frequently and I suspect that's the reason for their test scores: some of them are in the 20% - 40% range for tests whereas my son is 80%+ because he studies past-papers and answers questions in his revision.

I worry for the future coz you can be sure that the AI providers don't care if a schoolchild is using their LLM to answer the homework questions.