Hacker News: JumpCrisscross

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "CEO who fired 900 people on Zoom just before Christmas wants his job back"

JumpCrisscross — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 03:12:19 +0000

> If you think you can amble into being a billionaire in our environment then you’re conceding that capitalism as a system has broken down

Yes. I think you can be a good person and an early engineer at a start-up that gets acquired for billions when the team is still small.

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "The American sports plutocracy"

JumpCrisscross — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 01:29:15 +0000

Equity as in stock

Nvidia Downsizes Plans for $250B Guarantee of OpenAI Data Center

JumpCrisscross — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 01:06:40 +0000

Article URL: https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-downsizes-plans-for-250-billion-guarantee-of-openai-data-center-b56c38d3

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49306518

Points: 6

# Comments: 0

Nvidia discloses $21B stake in SpaceX

JumpCrisscross — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 01:02:55 +0000

Article URL: https://www.ft.com/content/6f66a76d-0b2d-4301-886c-87ecc046731b

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49306491

Points: 14

# Comments: 2

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "Jane Street suffers $15B hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness"

JumpCrisscross — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:55:42 +0000

Sure. It’s still an embarrassing hit they’d want to keep secret, particularly if they’re still in those positions. Paying hundreds of millions to hide a $15bn MtM loss makes sense.

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "Jane Street suffers $15B hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness"

JumpCrisscross — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:52:42 +0000

Nothing about any of that is sketchy. It’s in their mutual interest to avoid a fire sale.

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "Jane Street suffers $15B hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness"

JumpCrisscross — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:20:34 +0000

“By our calculations, Jane Street ponied up a one-off $200mn to do the deal and then locked in a further $200mn of costs per annum, at least in part, to avoid us gawping at their numbers every quarter. Wowsers” [1].

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/28a51284-98cc-4767-a306-0540d2656...

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "CEO who fired 900 people on Zoom just before Christmas wants his job back"

JumpCrisscross — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 21:17:51 +0000

> to get into the billions of dollars of net worth, you need to both ignore more and more problematic things

Need is too strong, especially if it’s just for becoming a billionaire. One can absolutely amble into that situation. Where I tend to agree is if you choose to keep those billions versus transitioning to charity.

Jane Street has paid up large to avoid its numbers leaking out

JumpCrisscross — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 20:11:50 +0000

Article URL: https://www.ft.com/content/28a51284-98cc-4767-a306-0540d265687f

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49303975

Points: 5

# Comments: 0

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices"

JumpCrisscross — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:54:52 +0000

Than Australia? Probably not.

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "In Australia, a home battery boom has helped cut wholesale power prices"

JumpCrisscross — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:52:49 +0000

Mankiw’s Principles of Economics. The concept being illustrated here is elasticity.

Spicy tale of an App Store fraud

JumpCrisscross — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 02:02:21 +0000

Article URL: https://lapcatsoftware.com/articles/2026/8/4.html

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49293986

Points: 2

# Comments: 0

Robinhood's New Fund Lets Anyone Invest in Y Combinator Startups, with a Catch

JumpCrisscross — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 01:45:17 +0000

Article URL: https://www.inc.com/brian-contreras/robinhood-new-fund-invest-y-combinator-startups/91385214

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49293885

Points: 1

# Comments: 0

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001"

JumpCrisscross — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:13:26 +0000

> Forgive me if I defer to the bond market and treasury auction data

TIPS are Treasuries. The breakeven-inflation rate is calculated entirely from Treasuries.

> data shows a path to a potential debt spiral and crisis based on yields demanded and debt outstanding

Sure. The data also–unambiguously–show that Treasury prices are not pricing in a U.S. default or runaway inflation.

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001"

JumpCrisscross — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:11:30 +0000

> Then the treasury fills these orders from the lowest to highest bid

No, it does not. Treasury goes down the list until it has allocated the auction and then everyone gets the marginal rate. (And that's for competitive bids. You can also submit a non-competitive bid with no price–that gets filled first.)

> US paying the highest rates in 25 years means the buyers are expecting higher premiums

Would recommend looking up credit versus rates. It’s a useful construct.

> they ask them because they are worried about inflation

Nope. Do you know what TIPS are? You can compare the price of a normal Treasury and a TIP to get what Treasury buyers think about inflation. That's the breakeven-inflation rate in my top comment.

If you say you think they're wrong, I think I might agree. But the data–Treasury auction and insurance data–speak unambiguously to these points of investors' views, specicially, creditworthineness and inflation expectation.

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001"

JumpCrisscross — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:07:11 +0000

> It’s absolutely a risk premium

It's objectively not–that's what CDS measure.

> higher inflation expectations

Not reflected in the data [1].

We can reasonably debate if investors should treat the U.S. as a riskier credit. But these auctions, CDS data and other funding rates for high-quality non-U.S. dollar-denominated credits (e.g. Saudi Arabia's dollar-denominated debt [2]) do not show what the article implies they do.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

[2] https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/bond/xs2747599509-saudi-ara...

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001"

JumpCrisscross — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:04:02 +0000

> Do you know how bond auctions work?

Yes. What do you think I don't understand?

Do you understand the difference between credit and rates?

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001"

JumpCrisscross — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:03:12 +0000

> Another wave of inflation is coming in the next 6 months or what?

No, at least according to Treasury buyers [1].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001"

JumpCrisscross — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 23:00:54 +0000

> It absolutely is related to investors' perceptions of U.S. credit

Related to, not evidence of. I added a CDS reference which isolates the credit component.

> Entities lending money to US want increasingly higher compensation

Entities lending money in dollars want higher compensation. There is no evidence they demand a risk premium from the United States.

What we are seeing is an increasing term premium. But that doesn't have to do with the U.S.'s perceived creditworthiness, it's a function of money supply and demand.

New comment by JumpCrisscross in "US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001"

JumpCrisscross — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 22:51:43 +0000

Treasuries are priced alongside term SOFR at one year [1][2]. The cost to insure U.S. debt is in line with where it's been for the last five years [3]. (And around where they were ten years ago.)

This has nothing to do with investors' perceptions of U.S. credit and everything to do with the financial rates environment.

[1] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/...

[2] https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/cme-term-sofr...

[3] https://en.macromicro.me/charts/68239/us-5year-cds