It is a pretty confined upside if anything

I looked into it years ago when I wanted to tokenize small firefighting planes and helicopters hoping that being the person in charge of the entity doing the tokenization I could be staying at the premises of the private companies that lease the planes and helicopters and hold the contracts to do the actual firefighting.

My hope was that being identified as the 'owner of the planes' eventually the crew would allow me to fly the missions as a +1 even though I don't have the licenses.

But never crossed my mind that this could be make me a millionaire

You can daydream about being the protagonist of such actions which is not the same as watching other people doing it

When was the last time you convinced a person to bet on you , meaning transforming a no into a yes using a 30-40 sequence of words that you said?

No alcohol, no natural gain of confidence over time, straight up transforming a no into a yes without any appeal to higher authority (No AI, no Google, no Internet) no pitch deck, no market analysis no MVP, no nothing, just straight up 'trust me bro' with a more complex structure.

And I mean generally not (solely) romantically.

Tell me how people betting on the world cup winner on polymarket are getting scammed. They simply aren't because the outcome is dependant upon many many humans, who all want the same thing and no single individual can manipulate the outcome to their advantage

On the other hand the SEC , insider trading laws and KYC would protect you absolutely fuck all if you invest in a 5m marektcap pink sheet, because again that person can manipulate the market to their advantage, and I'd also say quite frankly that the SEC , insider trading laws and KYC are protecting you quite nothing against the market manipulation that people like Musk and Trump do to their advantage, because they fucking can as they are too big to jail and they take advantage of that , just like the 5M marketcap pink sheet guy who comes from the opposite side of the equation, he doesn't care about getting jailed.

So as you can see it's always about the single bet and its characteristics determining if you are getting taken advantage of or not, it's not about the form of market on which the bet is placed per se or if there are a bunch of do nothing 3 letter agencies presiding above it

The problem is not prediction markets , the problem is that people point to such bets and try to extrapolate a rule, which is like taking a scammy OTC pink sheet with a marketcap of 5 million USD and be surprised that it's shady and there is insider trading and shananigans.

Prediction markets without a single point of failure such as the ones on sports are very successful with billions of dollars in value exchanged and all is fine.

Regardless of the type of market if you put the destiny of millions of dollars in the hands of a single individual they'd manipulat that market

To notice that Lebron is depressed because he had to put down his dog and bet that his depression will influence his performance on the court is illegal?

> Odds are structurally stacked in your favor. (This wasn't always the case, but has been the case for a while, and there's no indication that it's going to change any time soon.

This is just an assumption based on nothing, on the other hand it's true from first principles that you need people to agree with you to make money in stocks whereas in sports bets you not only don't need those but actually hope that people are taking the other side of the bet

> If you wager money on sports, the odds are always against you.

The house edge can be compared with other costs that hedge fund incour when they trade stocks, also they are not present on prediction markets and are very slim on betting exchanges such as Betfair

1) It's the only field in which you don't need the consensus to solidify around your position in order to make money, as a matter of fact you HOPE that the consensus doesn't solidify around your position until the gameclock reaches 0:00 and your prediction becomes true.

2) Thanks to prediction markets though (and the already known betting exchanges such as Betfair and the huge landscape of Asian ones), a sport bet can also be liquid meaning that you can also profit from consensus solidifying around your bet.

3) The market can stay irrational more than you can stay solvent, that is a recurrent theme in investing but with sports bets you have a hard deadline for the market to resolve and gain its rationality back as opposed to the normal markets which can stay irrational forever because the public can be captured by yet another narrative once one loses steam.

4) UHNWI tend to hangout together so the investors and the administrators of a hedge fund could have access to the actual players deciding the outcome of games and thus they could accurately judge their mental and physical form and if needed be they could also persuade them to make a determinate result happen..

What do you guys think? Why hasn't this sort of fund develop yet ? At least publicly?

Do you think hedge fund already incorporate sports bets in their portfolio but they do it in secret?

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48933934

Points: 2

# Comments: 2

Yeah that's BS.

When you were a kid in class in winter you had 20 kids + the teacher in the same room submerged by co2 , plus you were in a literal prison taken from the comfort of your bed in the dead of the night, had to ask permission to use the restroom and you could be denied , once you managed to get to the restroom you'd be submerged by even more co2 because of all the cigarette smoking going on from the older guys. And I am not even considering bullying as a factor that for the least lucky or strong could be added to the above list.

Still no depression in sight .

The problem comes from within, life was never meant to be taken this seriously, all the improvements and technological prowness that we tout vs. Subsaharan Africa come with the cost of literal self torture.

We have evolved in a scenario in which if you had reason to believe to have >90% chance of being alive 1 week from now (something like 168 hours into the future) then you could literally go out of your hut celebrating with your dick swinging left and right .

We have now reached a point where people would be unhappy with 168 years because 'oh no what happens next OMG I am so scared!'

Mental health and thinking are 2 parallel lines, they can never be reconciled, thinking is much more toxic than CO2, lead, sniffing glue, meth, heroin, fentanyl and all the other so called harmful substances which as toxic as they might be they don't make you want to off yourself.

Paradoxically if we stopped thinking and ran New York City into the ground back to an African hut village it would be the best party in the history of humanity and so much happiness could be extracted from that, much much more than building it up further, even though it would not be visible from the outside

Apple doesn't have a history of having to pump the stock to survive. Also it's a pretty ubiquitous company and they delivered a pretty life changing product for all of us.

On the other hand Tesla has a history of lying constantly and also life and customer experience is pretty much the same in the sectors of the economy that they attacked , as a matter of fact a 2002 Mercedes (the year in which Tesla was founded) is better in many departments compared to a 2026 Tesla

Messi se fue para Rio y con la Copa se quedò

Somos la banda Argentina siempre vamos a alientar ,

porquè tenemos el sueno de salir Campeon Mundial

So is the nuclear reactor business but at least with that you gain independence from Iran whereas the satellite dog business gives you independence from the tyrant T-mobile or Verizon...

Phone > Satellite connection cannot happen indoors directly, whereas 3-4-5g can, today, not 10 years and billions of R&D into the future

On top of that add the reusability stunt streamed in 4k making them extrapolate a not well defined pivotal leap for ROI....and there you have it , it's the Apollo sinkhole all over again with money being lit on fire an essentially no quality of life ROI for society.

At least the Apollo mission got us the ability to deliver nukes to Moscow in 30 minutes or less. This will be a total sinkhole.

All the while we are held hostage by a Nation with consumption rates which are a thenth of ours and we still have the audacity to reject nuclear fission because it's "dangerous"

That's news to me