If you had an interceptor with a 99% rate of interception (even in such a tight space, and assuming it could intercept underwater as effectively as in air) then if the Iranians fired 50 drones at a ship, they’d have a about a 40% chance of getting at least 1 through (1 - 0.99^50).

So they would likely sink 4 in every 10. No sane insurer let alone captain or crew would take such a risk I think.

This is the issue with interceptors, you need phenomenally high reliability AND very large numbers AND very cheap prices per unit to make them workable.

As it is, I would argue this is a classic example of America trying to solve a POLITICAL problem with MILITARY force. This has never actually succeeded as far as I know. Certainly not on the last few decades.

2. A 300bn IPO can mean actually raising n 300bn by selling 100% of the company. But it could also mean seeing 1% for 3bn right? Which seems like a trivial amount for the market to absorb no?

The whole industry (except deribit) is a shit show of barely working apis that aren’t reliable or accurate in any way. It’s completely routine to not be able to get an order status for minutes at a time. Or to get fills after an order has been rejected. Or a week after a cancel confirmation message.

Coinbase is actually one of the worst offenders for this. Coinbase Prime, their supposed institutional grade offering especially so.

So it doesn’t surprise me at all that the same issues are happening more widely.

To be clear: deribit have always been efficient, accurate, reliable and generally excellent. If you must trade crypto, do it there so you’re Ops and Support people don’t have to suffer.

It’s also ready sold OTC.

Instead people just sit around and do meta studies on meta studies on correlation and publishing whatever statistical anomalies they can find.

Cracking open your phone might require a warrant. But basically every byte of data on it has come from your ISP and is backed up to Apple\Google etc. and those companies will let me search their computers for your data no questions asked (or for a nominal fee).

That’s how you sidestep the 4th amendment when it comes to tech in the modern age.

https://youtu.be/X9RYuvPCQUA?si=XXJ9l7O4Y3lxfEci

[video]

I don’t like trump. But “CZ” basically paid a ransom to let Binance come in from the cold. Why shouldn’t he pay another to get a clean slate and maybe go back to being CEO?

If there are 2 suppliers in a market, they will collude without algos or private meetings: I can be pretty sure you will not cut your price if I don’t cut mine. The issue there is that there are only 2 suppliers, so trust is very easy.

If there are 100 other suppliers, I know ONE of them will cut their price. So I best cut mine first.

What I am trying to say here is that, algos or not, n is the major driver here imho.

That’s kind of interesting since the US has been very relaxed about falling values of n as long as prices seem ok.

That’s good for everyone right?

Does exactly this.

Odds are just set by supply and demand and you pay a small fee per bet.

So governments are desperate NOT to do anything on most issues. And they are desperate to do SOMETHING (as a distraction) on issues seen as more neutral and less likely to offend vast numbers of people.

I already have a passport and that is digitalised and universal. Why not just use that?

The UK has a bad habit of launching these programs and not being able to deliver on them.

We have had National Insurance numbers for a long time, these are used to track income tax payments and benefits. But that doesn’t work apparently. So I had to set up a Unique Tax Reference number. Just to do my tax return. This involved several letters back and forth. Actual paper sent in the post over several weeks. The government already have all the tax information they just need me to do 20h of work because they can’t keep their files straight.

They made a mess of that. So I now have an additional Unique Tax Reference number. 2 unique IDs…

And they are still getting my taxes wrong. And writing to me about other peoples taxes/benefits payments because they have similar names and live in the same municipality.

Also, I’ve never had any difficulty proving who I am online when I want to. And I should not need to do so anymore than I already chose to.

This seems like a nothing burger.

Microsoft jointed an NGO that pushes nuclear that most people have never heard of.

If they were investing a 100bn in nuclear that would be interesting. Paying a small, cancellable membership fee is the opposite of “doubling down”

The answer is the latter because paying more later is a form of borrowing, but not one you have to declare as debt. So you can announce a tax cut now and voters will love it despite paying twice as much next year.

Since us brits left I wondered if there would be a big move to more effective government. But apparently not?

I think the most interesting thing about the EU is we’re watching the formation of a country but over ~100 years. The US had a few milestones (war of independence, civil war, ww2) where it got things together and centralised etc. the EU has not had (yet) crises of that scale.

It took the euro debt crisis to get fiscal stuff moving. Maybe Ukraine/Trump is what is needed to do the same for armed forces?

Trump is encouraging it.

And specifically in the area of defence.

Source: https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-its-time-reconsider-europe...

It’s quiet widely discussed here (UK, we’re kind of on the edge but want in, but maybe not too in for obvious reasons)

1. Has the pressure for more intervention and an EU armed forces gone up?

2. What will that look like, who will pay for it, who will control it, will Germany dominate it etc

I am just saying trump is driving point (1). How or whether (2) is solved is another matter and a more complex thing.

I personally think as need goes up, ways are found. So far people have been unwilling because the points above (2) outweigh the need (1). If trump invaded Greenland then I imagine people would be much more willing to engage even if it meant paying, accepting German leadership (or Germany accepting less oversight despite paying?) etc.

We have already seen France unilaterally extend its nuclear umbrella.

That is what happened with finances: Germany wouldn’t accept EU wide debt, and many countries wouldn’t accept German style fiscal constraints. Then the euro crisis forced both sides to compromise and here we are with both.

I hope it doesn’t take an actual military crisis to force the matter here. But one (two actually, trump on one side, Russia on the other) is looking available…

Now trump is driving its creation in a single term.