None were caught in the Microsoft or Fastmail spam filters.

We strongly advise transitioning your users to a different Microsoft 365 offer for nonprofits, before the subscription is cancelled, to avoid disruption and data loss. Connect now with your current Microsoft partner – or find a partner – to get started. Learn more about what happens to your data and access when your subscription ends.

That last sentence links to https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/commerce/sub...

He's right about some things -- off the top of my head:

-- OAI's perpetual fundraising, due to their losses

--Coreweave

--Circular financing

--Revenue/capex imbalance

...all forensic economics analyses.

He's often wrong when on the topic of capabilities and adoption -- he mistakes a snapshot for a trajectory, and treats current limitations as permanent:

--Hallucination/unreliability an unsolvable problem

--OpenAI failing

--AI capabilities have plateaued / models will stop getting better

--Saying Microsoft's cancelled leases meant the bubble was popping

--Agents a marketing fad

--Gross miscalculation of OAI 2025 revenue

--Lack of adoption

--AI not getting more efficient (compared to 10-40x reduction in inference costs YoY)

--Repeating "95% of pilots fail" but ignoring massive bottoms-up adoption

Christensen got this right when he had the insight to judge a technology by its rate of improvement relative to what a market needs, not by whether it's good enough today.

Put Zitron back at the early days of the integrated circuit and imagine what he would have written about the technology.

Some open predictions:

--Bubble is going to burst -- I tend to agree with the thesis that "there is some marginal capacity being planned/built today that will never pay back its capex"

--Losses mean there's no viable business here -- the recent moves by all of the players to some form of usage based pricing show there's price discovery occurring. I don't know of anyone who is stopping using LLMs because of the pricing changes...it's just changing their behavior.

> Aoki’s key insight was that the J-mode had a comparative advantage in environments of moderate volatility: situations where conditions changed frequently enough that rigid central plans would be outdated before they were executed, but not so radically that only top-down strategic intervention could cope. In an environment of stable, predictable demand, the H-firm did fine; in an environment of extreme disruption, where the whole product line had to be rethought, centralized authority was indispensable, and the H-firm also did fine. But in between—where the challenge was to make constant small adjustments in a changing but recognizable paradigm—the J-firm excelled.

See for example https://aakashgupta.medium.com/microsofts-ceo-just-became-a-... or https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-12/zucker...

It's also much easier to raise money for private startups. Back in the day there was a point at which you _had_ to go public in order to finance your business. Now you can have raises like the recent $122 billion OpenAI raise. https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/

They were super careful to maintain the look across the transition from film to digital capture. Families display multiple years of school photos next to each other and they wanted a consistent look.

This was in the days before automated CI, so a broken commit meant that someone wasn't running the required tests.

1. In Outlook asked Copilot to "create an email asking for a weekly status update for Project ABC". Iterating a bit, I asked it to be more casual and shorter. Here's what I got:

  Hey Team,

  Hope you're all doing great. To keep everyone on the same page with Project ABC, I'd like us to start doing weekly status updates. Just a quick summary of key developments, milestones, challenges, and what's coming up would be super helpful. This way, we can coordinate better and tackle any issues right away.

  Thanks for your cooperation and hard work. Looking forward to your updates!

2. I provided Copilot with this prompt:

"I am upgrading the electrical service at my house from 100a to 200a service. Create a project plan in Planner for this project."

Here's the response I got:

  Nice! Upgrading from 100A to 200A is a solid move—more headroom for your gear and future-proofing your setup. Here's a breakdown of how you could structure this as a project in Microsoft Planner, with buckets and tasks to keep it organized:

  ---

  ### **Bucket 1: Planning & Permitting**
  - **Assess current electrical load and future needs**
  - **Consult with a licensed electrician**
  - **Request utility service requirements**
  - **Obtain local permits for electrical service upgrade**
  - **Review NEC and local code requirements**

  ---

  ### **Bucket 2: Materials & Scheduling**
  - **Select upgraded panel (200A rated) and breakers**
  - **Order required materials (panel, feeder wires, conduit, ground rods, etc.)**
  - **Coordinate shutdown and install time with utility provider**
  - **Schedule rough-in inspection with local authority**

  ---

  ### **Bucket 3: Installation**
  - **Shut off power at the main disconnect (coordinate with utility)**
  - **Remove existing 100A panel and components**
  - **Install 200A panel and connect feeders**
  - **Upgrade grounding/bonding system as required**
  - **Replace meter socket if required**

  ---

  ### **Bucket 4: Inspections & Finalization**
  - **Schedule and pass electrical inspection**
  - **Have utility restore permanent power**
  - **Label circuits clearly in new panel**
  - **Update homeowner insurance with new electrical capacity**

  ---

  ### **Bucket 5: Post-Project Wrap-Up**
  - **Document panel layout and upgrades**
  - **Evaluate energy use and plan for future expansion (EV charger, generator, etc.)**
  - **Close out permits with inspection authority**

  ---

  You can assign these tasks to yourself or any contractors involved, and add due dates to align with your timelines. Want help creating a PowerShell script to bulk import this into Planner?

3. I provided Copilot with this prompt:

  book a meeting with  for August 1 entitled "Test Meeting"

  I can't directly book meetings or access your calendar, but I can help you set it up! Here's an example of what to enter in Outlook or your preferred calendar app:

  **Title:** Test Meeting  
  **Date:** August 1  
  **Attendees:** Bryan Herbst  
  **Time:** [Insert your preferred time]  
  **Location:** [Optional]  
  **Description:** [Add any notes or agenda items]

  If you're using PowerShell or a script to automate calendar events—especially within Microsoft 365—I can help you write that too. Want to go that route?