From their docs, it looks like they charge fees to bet "takers" (as opposed to makers), but exclude the geopolitical and world-events markets where they don't charge fees.

I have to imagine that may be related to some of the blow-back towards prediction markets about profiting on topics like war & their potential for manipulation.

Given it sounds like the bot bets everywhere other than sports, many of those categories would likely have fees in this case.

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There have been numerous technologies that have emerged or hit the mainstream in my adult life that have spawned multiple billion dollar companies. EVs/charging, renewables, crypto/fintech, much of “modern” social media, same day/last mile delivery, drones, etc. Probably at least a few that I don’t know exist. Looking back across the history of business and innovation in the 1900s, this doesn’t seem that anomalous.

I think the actionable framing of this is -

- Build skills that are transferable between different industries that allow you to take advantage of the areas of greatest opportunity as they emerge.

- Build a network of likeminded people with complimentary skills who are willing to take a flyer on opportunities with you.

- Make friends with people with money who will fund these efforts, or build a resume that will make you an appealing founder or very, very early employee to VCs.

I do think that the situation of your birth has a major impact on your ability to put yourself in this position - I’m less sure about the timing aspect.

We want the throughput of the road to be as high as possible. Broadly, that means maintaining the optimal (minimum) spacing to make the merge safely without changing speed, while maximizing speed.

You may get larger areas where speeds are disrupted, but on the average be going faster. Stop-and-go traffic introduces tons of inefficiencies since drivers need to be much more cautious than in a consistent traffic flow.

The big challenge is that it’s basically impossible to know what the optimal speed is, since it relies on knowing the detailed state of the road and traffic volume miles ahead of what you can see.

Self-driving cars are interesting here since they will open up new opportunities for all the vehicles on the road to co-regulate their speed near to the optimum.

If you can charge at home (ideally at 240v), and you don’t drive more than the range of your vehicle in a day regularly, it’s gas that has an inconvenience to overcome. I don’t have a gas pump at my house.

If you are an Uber driver and you do 2-3x the range every day, it’s a different story. But if you can charge for free - which isn’t hugely uncommon currently - you can save a lot of money on gas with an EV, so there are tradeoffs.

The other is probably just scale of the parent company in terms of being able to build out and service the network. They tend to have more prominent, nicer locations for their stations.

Not sure how that plays out in terms of the weight/packaging of the drone but seems feasible for at least larger drones.

I think a good hobbyist application for this would be something like modelling figurines for games, which is already a pretty popular 3D printing application. This would allow people with limited modelling skills to bring fantastical, unique characters to life “easily”.

Not enough performance to be that tempting to do anything dumb, tons of space for friends and stuff, go anywhere, sleep in it, easy to maintain… Bumpers were rusted to hell but it had a sunroof and you could roll the rear window down so we were having a great time!

If flying private incurs 10x or 100x the externality costs of flying coach, it should be priced (taxed really) to reflect that a significant portion of those externality costs are an unnecessary luxury benefit.

The Vision Pro is marketed as a device with the potential to replace or significantly augment a laptop and/or TV for a lot of users (I understand there are presently some asterisks needed there). And that's assuming no other novel, high value uses emerge.

Apple sells something like 7 million MacBooks per quarter. Many of them are well more than $2000. I don't think a $2,000 price point is a crazy barrier if the device is able to live up to what it could be.

The windshield has a stack of huge stickers on it that get torn away by the pit crew during stops. Apparently you can get stacks up to about 20 layers.

Seems like a reasonable possibility for messy AR applications.

That said, they were also letting people exceed their API rate limits by massive amounts, so hard for me to put the blame anywhere but with Reddit.

That article is so petty it deserves no one’s time.

It’s the long tail of niche subreddits where almost all the content that keeps Reddit at the top of SEO rankings and makes them interesting for training AI lives.

A very small portion of users are responsible for the majority of the content and community building on Reddit. I think you might be underestimating how reliant the 99% of users who don’t post top-level content or serve as moderators are on the 1% who do.