Of course, since our government is flat broke, it's going to be more from interest on the debt.

We ar perfectly capable of intelligently changing how we calculate inflation. And the current administration's idea that if an American stops buying something because they cannot afford it anymore, means inflation went down is delusional.

I genuinely don't believe the US can be fixed anymore. We're on a slip-and-slide and far too much damage has been done to stop it. There aren't even adults left at the table to try.

We have thus far been supremely lucky that irrational actors have not acquired a nuclear bomb. But the reality is that throughout history most leaders have been irrational.

My country (America) is behaving increasingly irrationally. I've been hearing fringe conservatives calling for nuking the middle east since the early 2000s, but the rot has spread and became deeply religious.

Now I hear talk of the end times from the most powerful people in the country, actively building bunkers. Groups of Republicans openly talking about the US being allowed to take whatever we want from anyone we want through war (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, Canada).

Almost all of our leadership has been replaced in every branch of government. SCOTUS is clearly compromised and bought. The legislative may as well be dead. Almost all executive agencies have been purged, what remains have had their heads swapped with sycophants. Something like half of the military generals have been turned over. The DoD was renamed to the DoW with cheers, as an alcoholic prison guard was put in charge and has started touting hypermacho religious warrior catchphrases and openly advocating for war crimes.

The other day we testimony from judges before legislature who refused to say if Presidents can run for three terms or that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. Under oath, just simply refused.

And that's before getting into how the President of the United States started a war to distract from his involvement in the highest profile sex trafficking ring in human history, and has continued to use his position to perform insider trading on oil prices repeatedly for weeks.

If you said any of this would be happening in 2005, I would have laughed at how "that would never happen in the US". And now it's just... reality. Like Russia. And it seems to have no end in sight. So what actually happens if Trump gets so deranged he hits the red button? And if not him, who will the loonies pick tomorrow - someone who actually believes in "the cause", who doesn't understand it's a grift?

And what are the external long term consequences of Trump's actions in countries like Iran and Venezuela and Ukraine? The US is not to be trusted anymore, every country has a clear signal to build their own nuclear arsenal ASAP. We have a river of blood behind us, so are we just expecting to get lucky that no one in Iran, for instance, who gets to a position of power leverages an irrational hate for the US and just... Does it in a religious or hate-driven Armageddon?

Anyway, to answer your question: because we already do a lot to stop the other causes. Cars have oodles of safety regulations, for instance. Home pools have rules on covers in many states, lifeguards are placed at water features. But we can't just snap our fingers and stop all car deaths, or cure all disease.

Meanwhile shooting deaths are an entirely artificial problem, which we actively do less than nothing to solve. Both by avoiding root cause fixes - not only avoiding addressing mental health, but actively encouraging bullying of minorities like trans students - but also avoiding regulation of the most effective tools (guns).

And, just a final point, humans are human. A kid dying in a tragic accident or disease is heartbreaking. But a dozen kids being eviscerated on Live TV repeatedly for someone's entire adult life, with tens of millions of people having the audacity to say "get over it, we refuse to talk about this" or "even "it's a hoax"? That's enraging.

We are emotional animals, but I'm more than happy that we try to leverage our empathy to make the world a better place. We can do more than one thing at a time, after all. For instance, under your argument, nobody should have bothered inventing amber alerts because it doesn't save hundreds of kids per year.

The woman is clearly a human life too, and every western country has a right to self defense. A fetus is an imminent danger to women, their health, and their property. They have a right to remove it from their own body to stop that.

Or am I allowed to unconsentually put myself inside anyone for months, eating the food from their blood like a tapeworm, causing chronic pain, permanently changing their hormones, potentially risking death, just to come ripping my way out of their body and then demanding 18 years of pay and attention?

Am I entitled to an unconsenting healthy person's blood or organs or marrow if I'm going to die without it and we know they're "probably" going to be fine?

I do hand programming for myself now and use the right tools in my office, because I'm a responsible adult who understands that I am not paid to have fun or feel special and smart - it's to produce a product for my employer.

You ate a grilled cheese in your home and wipe the crumbs into the bin. The police arrest you for destruction of evidence for robbing a bank that never even got robbed. Then they hit you with qualified immunity and high five each other.

It's utterly ridiculous that police seem to just have infinite powers now. All they have to do is say "I suspect" and they have boundless ability to arrest anyone (potentially losing their job or missing key life events), declare any object as evidence (which the department can conveniently keep for themselves even if you're found innocent), or use mass surveillance systems (to stalk women).

EDIT: Finding another article, it's even worse. He didn't do it at all - he was interrogated, was never allowed his lawyer, never read rights, with no warrant. And after having the device seized an agent triggered the device wipe themselves by trying to get in under this duress.

So in this case, the the cop eats the grilled cheese and throws out the crumbs and then arrests you for destruction of evidence.

You're starting to perceive us as totalitarian? We are! For 30% of us, proudly, apparently. Our president attempted to violently overthrow our government for God's sake!

You need a system promot because an LLM is fundamentally a token predictor. It needs to be primed for the work it's going to do, otherwise it's next token prediction has too little to go off in the beginning and goes nuts.

You use a separate AI to review the code, because it's a token predictor trained mostly on accomplishing tasks in a cost effective way - we haven't made AGI here. The first shot that actually makes the code will have rationalizations in its memory as well as prior research, which bias token prediction to accepting that as true (remember how they had to train our sycophancy?). Then because of the desire to be cost effective, they're slightly lazy, and so it won't always do the research to find new edge cases and problems and missing tests the initial research didn't find.

So spin up a separate, clean slate, and ask for it to review from scratch. Or have that one spin up multiple smaller ones to have them specialize in specific concerns or domains (security, data model corruption, code quality), then have the orchestrator validate those concerns and stitch them into a cohesive response.

I can't help you on your last question. Saying they are degrading in quality is not even close to my experience. 5.6 and Opus/Fable 5 are have been a huge step up. Though I do need to adjust memory rules as these new models come out, since ground-up retrained models often come with their own quirks that replace old ones - causing old, specific memories to have unintended side effects.

> If the US companies need trillions to barely beat Chinese companies spending billions, despite a multi year head start...

Because they're talking about the cost difference of distilled model development and ground-up trained model development.

And second, the answer is that OpenAI and Anthropic had to do all the research into how to train models. Then they had to acquire all the data, curate and filter it. Then they had to design all the ways to iterate on training and antagonize it to be better - because there's not actually an enormous corpus of aligned, human stream-of-thought data. Then over half a decade they've been refining these methods.

There's no way you don't understand that if it was not easier and cheaper to distill a model, the institutions in question would be training their own models from scratch.