Hacker News: Zigurd

New comment by Zigurd in "SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading"

Zigurd — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:11:56 +0000

Over in the past three months I've posted two polls on HN asking if one or both of the OpenAI and SpaceX IPO's would fail, with the definition of failure being dropping below IPO price by the end of the year, or the IPO failing altogether. The votes were against both IPOs succeeding. Albeit with a small sample, the results indicated skepticism early on.

Anthropic could go either way. My guess is that if the financials aren't Enron scale flaming garbage, they'll be fine.

New comment by Zigurd in "SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading"

Zigurd — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:00:23 +0000

Microsoft IIRC sank a small server farm into the ocean and found that it worked pretty well. Surely there is fiber alongside the electrical cable from offshore windmills, so that's not a totally crazy idea, but it's never going to happen with SpaceX because Elon still craves Trump's approval, and Trump is anti-windmill.

New comment by Zigurd in "SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading"

Zigurd — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 18:55:49 +0000

Space data centers are so absurd they are the most Elizabeth Holmes Theranos part of SpaceX. IOW this is the part of the story where everyone with a jot of sense can't be fooled, and all your left with are the willingly hornswoggled.

New comment by Zigurd in "SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading"

Zigurd — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 18:50:57 +0000

Just say it with a South African eurotrash accent and it will all makes sense.

New comment by Zigurd in "SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading"

Zigurd — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:24:36 +0000

Cursor investors and employees are the biggest winners of the SpaceX IPO, even if the IPO flops, they will still get much more out of their Cursor shares than they ever had a right to expect. Some SpaceX employees have been waiting over 10 years for liquidity.

New comment by Zigurd in "SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading"

Zigurd — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 13:16:50 +0000

There are no "pretty important" companies with the relatively meager revenues SpaceX has got.

New comment by Zigurd in "SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading"

Zigurd — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 13:06:43 +0000

And I had to scroll all the way down here to find a post that wasn't high octane copium.

New comment by Zigurd in "Demis Hassabis has a plan to harness AI safely"

Zigurd — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 15:35:24 +0000

Hassabis is a genuine prodigy and genius by any measure you would care to pick. Unlike a handful of others supposed tech leaders I can think of.

Just how smart? "A few short years" sounds like someone smart enough to know how to make a safe prediction.

New comment by Zigurd in "Sam Altman and Elon Musk Argue over Who's Running the Bigger Scam"

Zigurd — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:59:54 +0000

Nvidia has a trailing P/E ratio of about 30. Imagine where the stock price could be if he was an S tier bullshit artist like those two.

New comment by Zigurd in "LAPD lets contract with surveillance giant Flock expire"

Zigurd — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 21:21:38 +0000

Do you give up when faced with multiple related problems?

New comment by Zigurd in "LAPD lets contract with surveillance giant Flock expire"

Zigurd — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 16:01:26 +0000

Have you seen Flock's CEO?

New comment by Zigurd in "SpaceX built to separate retail investors from their money"

Zigurd — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 14:26:11 +0000

So is Tesla. The fly in the ointment is the Tesla demonstrates how long you can keep the scam running. It's been three years since Tesla was a growth technology stock. Now it's an EV manufacturer that has under invested in follow on products. But the P/E ratio is still astronomical.

New comment by Zigurd in "Why is Starlink so big?"

Zigurd — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 15:22:31 +0000

You are directionally correct: except for a grab bag of edge cases, terrestrial wireless will always be cheaper and perform better. The killer aspect of that fact is that the computing and radios that go into 5G networks keep getting cheaper. In other words Starlink has a perpetually shrinking TAM, and the trend is irreversible for fundamental reasons.

Unlike Amazon's constellation, which can be cross subsidized and monetized in multiple ways. Starlink economics have to work as a largely pure play.

New comment by Zigurd in "Elon Musk's family foundation took Tommy Robinson to Russia, says Musk's father"

Zigurd — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 15:09:03 +0000

Well that absolves Elon. Right?

New comment by Zigurd in "What will define Elon Musk's legacy? DOGE cuts to USAID Ebola programs"

Zigurd — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 18:30:26 +0000

He only killed a few dozen monkeys with the brain implant. That's nothing compared to denying children food and medicine.

New comment by Zigurd in "Apple sues OpenAI, accuses ex-employees of stealing trade secrets"

Zigurd — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 17:26:04 +0000

I am an author of a couple of books that are part of the Anthropic settlement.

New comment by Zigurd in "Apple sues OpenAI, accuses ex-employees of stealing trade secrets"

Zigurd — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 12:30:12 +0000

Blame copyright law. AI training is very comparable to compiling an inverted index, which is considered transformational even though you can recover the input documents from an inverted index.

New comment by Zigurd in "Apple to increase spend with Broadcom to produce billions more U.S. chips"

Zigurd — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 18:10:34 +0000

Impeachment is the equivalent of an indictment, and the subsequent trial and removal is, probably correctly, very difficult to attain. That leaves a vast area of things a president shouldn't be able to do because it's illegal, but there isn't proportionate recourse.

The next Congress and the next president have a job to do there.

First recorded Tesla Semi crash kills two people in Nevada

Zigurd — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:09:27 +0000

Article URL: https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-07-02/first-recorded-tesla-semi-crash-kills-two-people

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48832983

Points: 4

# Comments: 0

New comment by Zigurd in "Apple to increase spend with Broadcom to produce billions more U.S. chips"

Zigurd — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 13:39:17 +0000

The turmoil comes not only from the fact of tariffs but from the manner in which the US operates tariff policy if you can call it that. It's the equivalent of button mashing your game controller. There is a low upper bound to the effectiveness, and this approach isn't just applied to tariffs. Firing scientists, blocking aid to children at random, musing aloud about invading NATO allies all adds up to wanton destruction of US soft power and reputation. The specific policies hardly matter in a shit storm of incompetence.