<rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"><channel><title>Hacker News: arcticbull</title><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=arcticbull</link><description>Hacker News RSS</description><docs>https://hnrss.org/</docs><generator>hnrss v2.1.1</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 27 Jun 2026 10:19:44 +0000</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://hnrss.org/user?id=arcticbull" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"></atom:link><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>At least the top 4, unclear about the 5th, are strongly associated with obesity. That would make someone high-risk and testing potentially warranted in like 70% of the population. Asymptomatic <i>and</i> low-risk is what I said. The incidence of hypertension is so high in the general population it’s almost always statistically supported (even though basically every doctors office takes it wrong, even cardiologists, amazingly).<p>On the other end of the spectrum, what doesn’t make sense is testing a random person off the street for Ebola. The prevalence approaches zero and symptoms are fairly noticeable, so any positive test is definitely wrong.<p>Most diseases are in between and have to be evaluated case by case, not buckshot.<p>You may be particularly interested to hear that there’s little evidence to support regular checkups in most adults beyond blood pressure testing and cervical cytology.<p>> Given the lack of favorable evidence and the potential adverse effect, primary care providers should consider the fact that general health checks, beyond the screening interventions shown to have benefit, likely have little or no effect on important health outcomes. Some of the interventions with demonstrated benefit have sufficiently large effects that a uniform application is warranted (blood pressure measurement and cervical cytology screening). In others, the trade‑off between benefits and harms is so close that patients should be involved in fully shared decision making regarding their participation (breast and colon cancer screening).<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31642821/" rel="nofollow">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31642821/</a><p>I suspect your doctor would agree with me. See if they’ll test you for Ebola, for instance. Not because you have symptoms but just cuz.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:05:45 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581399</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581399</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581399</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Several published papers agree. There is in fact little evidence to support regular checkups if you’re asymptomatic.<p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31642821/" rel="nofollow">https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31642821/</a><p>And blood pressure is especially pernicious, basically every doctors office measures it wrong so the results aren’t particularly useful. Many use the wrong size cuff for example, or don’t give people time to relax before a reading. A ton of people have white coat hypertension, high BP only because they’re in a doctors office.<p><a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1120072/" rel="nofollow">https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1120072/</a><p>I saw a paper that showed only 36% of cardiologists did it right.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 05:31:58 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581197</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581197</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581197</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Sure collecting more data makes sense. We agree there. If that gets you to the required degree of statistical confidence my argument is moot.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 05:00:36 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581007</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581007</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48581007</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Yes, don’t do tests on asymptomatic low-risk people until you can demonstrate that a positive result has any meaning whatsoever.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 04:57:54 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580992</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580992</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580992</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>You’re dealing with populations here. Literally the odds of a positive being false would be over 90%. Much higher in the more rare conditions. I’m not exaggerating. That means every almost every follow up you do is a waste of time, money and limited resources, denying care to those who need it. Including you when you actually do need it. It also exposes you to the risks of unnecessary follow-ups like infection. Your expected outcome is worse this way.<p>The chance a positive is real is so low you may as well just point to a body part and get it biopsied.<p>A positive from this kind of test is statistically meaningless.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 04:53:48 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580969</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580969</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580969</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Don’t make me tap the sign.<p>Bayes Theorem: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem</a><p>There’s a very good reason we don’t test asymptomatic people in low incidence populations. Basically all positives are false positives when you do that, no matter how accurate the test is.<p>When you’re testing healthy randos for everything the odds of a positive being false have so many 9s it would make an SRE weep.<p>Unless this is accurate to a degree previously unheard of in medical science it’s a boondoggle, and I can’t help but notice there’s no mention of accuracy.<p>Unfortunately that’s just basic statistics.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 04:41:37 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580906</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580906</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580906</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Sure but we don’t prove negatives for a reason - it’s impossible. We assume the null hypothesis.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 04:39:38 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580896</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580896</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580896</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>If you’re UV sensitive and at a higher risk then you’re already in a high incidence population making the tests valuable statistically speaking. That test is wildly more accurate for you than it would be for me, and even still you’ve been the unfortunate recipient of many false positives. There’s no reason for me or most people to do that since practically 99% or more of the positive tests would be wrong.<p>Biopsies are expensive, waste time, hospital resources and carry risks of infection and scarring that do not net out positively for people who aren’t in your risk group.<p>Getting a totally random positive doesn’t put you into a higher incidence category so whatever follow up test you take will be just as inaccurate as the first one.<p>The reason to avoid them is the tests would be a waste of time, statistically, and expose you to a bad risk-reward profile.<p>If you knew apriori 99% of the positive tests are false positive why are you taking the test?<p>It’s literally just math. Sometimes the right thing for you on average is to do nothing, which feels bad, but it’s still the right thing to do.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 04:14:32 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580741</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580741</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580741</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>False positives are important because of Bayes theorem. Even a test that’s 99% sensitive in a high incidence population can be indistinguishable from noise in a low incidence population.<p>If it has a 1% false positive rate but the incidence is 1%, the vast majority of the positives are false. Then you have to deal with the consequences, including invasive procedures for further diagnosis.<p>If you’re searching for tens or hundreds of low incidence conditions in the general population at a time it’s absolutely worthless because basically every positive is a false positive. At that point save the scan fee, spin a wheel of body parts and go get a biopsy of that.<p>This is why doctors are confused why companies are offering periodic full body scans in normal people. They only test people who are high risk or symptomatic to confirm a suspected diagnosis. That extra signal is what makes the test useful.<p>Go down to the medical diagnosis section for a worked example.<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem</a><p>Regarding cancers every human has all sorts of weird lumps that are generally meaningless.<p>In order for this to not be a boondoggle it would have to be spectacularly accurate to a degree previously unheard of. Just from a statistics perspective.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 03:47:33 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580569</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580569</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580569</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Midjourney Medical"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Bayes theorem mostly. False positives rates are extremely important. I mean so are false negatives. So just, like, accuracy.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 03:03:14 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580198</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580198</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48580198</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "The beauty and simplicity of the good old C-style void* in C++"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I looked into it some more and it's actually worse.<p>For static or thread storage, in C11 and later, ={0} will guarantee padding is zeroed. For automatic storage, per C11 6.7.9, only subobjects are required to be zeroed. Padding is not. [1]<p>In C23 initializing with ={} will give you zeroed padding, initializing with ={0} will not.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.open-std.org/jtc1/sc22/wg14/www/docs/n1548.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.open-std.org/jtc1/sc22/wg14/www/docs/n1548.pdf</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 03:47:01 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48471181</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48471181</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48471181</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "The beauty and simplicity of the good old C-style void* in C++"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Yeah but also, quick question:<p><pre><code>  struct S {
      char c;
      int i;
  };

  struct S a = {0};
  struct S b = {0};

  memcmp(&a, &b, sizeof(a)) == ...
</code></pre>
If you answered 0, you'd be wrong, the answer is undefined, thanks to padding, initialization and alignment rules. Padding bytes are undefined, and not guaranteed to be initialized to zero even if the variable is declared static (where the members would be zeroed).<p>This is why the compiler is angry at the post writer, and why the reinterpret_cast is needed. Ideally if they wanted to do something with the data, they'd unbox the structure.<p>That's why it's <i>not</i> a good idea to use void* to pass arbitrary data interchangeable with bytes. It's a location, it makes no representation as to what's there and how to interact with it. Let alone who owns it.<p>std::span solves two problems here. One is the ownership problem. The other is that span<T> is a T[]. void* is god only knows.<p>The post asserts:<p>> The code is very clear and straightforward: you pass a pointer to the custom data structure, and its size in bytes. That’s it. Simple and clear.<p>This is unfortunately entirely false in C thanks to the aforementioned alignment/padding UB (and of course inner pointers). This is addressed with std::span. You'd still have to reinterpret_cast your structure to get the UB.<p>> Why should people complexify and uglify their C++ code with the uint8_t pointer (or std::byte), when void* works just fine??<p>tl;dr: because it doesn't. It just kinda looks like it does if you squint, and it's going to lead to the gnarliest bugs in the world.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:05:48 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48459444</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48459444</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48459444</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Harness engineering: Leveraging Codex in an agent-first world"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I also can't help but notice they didn't mention how many tokens were burned, or how much that translates to in terms of cost over the 5 months at enterprise AI prices. I'm going to guess this wasn't a cheap demo.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2026 05:43:19 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48432182</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48432182</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48432182</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "Rars: a Rust RAR implementation, mostly written by LLMs"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>ABS doesn't just appear organically.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2026 21:27:57 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48127870</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48127870</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48127870</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Apparently we have different definitions of flying. They sold a bunch of stock, bought treasuries and shut down some money sink stores. Amazing stuff. Apparently if I just buy treasuries and stop wasting money on garbage my stock should sore too.<p>This is such a weird religion.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2026 17:03:14 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48025287</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48025287</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48025287</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Look at the 10Y. Still crap. No matter how you look at it this company is a dog.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2026 00:41:18 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48016711</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48016711</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48016711</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Well they are raising capital to hand out in dividends on their preferred stock. So that's much closer.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 21:31:09 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48015275</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48015275</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48015275</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>They haven't had a genuinely good year in the last 15 years.<p>Their TTM revenue is down 66% from what it was in 2012.<p>In <i>nominal</i> dollars. In real dollars it's down 75%.<p><a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GME/gamestop/revenue" rel="nofollow">https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GME/gamestop/reven...</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 21:26:13 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48015219</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48015219</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48015219</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "GPT-5.5"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I don't know where people get this idea.<p>America has several sets of eminent domain laws depending on the jurisdiction. The most coercive is federal eminent domain law specifically as it relates to building infrastructure like railways and highways.<p>It's set up so that you can take the land first and eventually go back around and decide on what the right price should have been.<p>Not only does it superscede state and local law, federal infrastructure projects are also not bound by state laws like CEQA.<p>You can even apply federal eminent domain law by e.g. transferring a state-level project to the Army Corps of Engineers.<p>What America is lacking in these projects is will, not means. The federal government could take your house and run a train through it by the end of the week if they wanted, doesn't matter where you live.<p>[edit] In fact some states even ceded their eminent domain rights to <i>private</i> railways.<p><a href="https://ij.org/press-release/appeals-court-sides-with-railroad-company-in-eminent-domain-fight-property-owners-will-ask-the-court-to-reconsider/" rel="nofollow">https://ij.org/press-release/appeals-court-sides-with-railro...</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2026 01:04:35 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47884289</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47884289</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47884289</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by arcticbull in "The cult of vibe coding is dogfooding run amok"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Yep this is especially true in the pre-product-market-fit phase. Most if not all of that code should be written to be thrown away. Any time you spend writing perfect code instead of your MVP is burnt runway and a chance for competitors to catch up.<p>Once you show PMF though the balance changes to long-term sustainability and maintainability.<p>What's going to be interesting is getting to a place where it generates better code than we would from specs. You can get better and better generated code by filling in the context the model infers. Do that long enough, and well, a perfect spec is just code.<p>We do live in interesting times.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2026 05:16:50 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47671001</link><dc:creator>arcticbull</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47671001</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47671001</guid></item></channel></rss>