Hacker News: baq

New comment by baq in "Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?"

baq — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:54:24 +0000

Technically all ships crossing the strait matter as their cargos end up being bought, sanctioned or not, Iran-friendly or not; they wouldn't have crossed otherwise. If we're talking about avoiding a global recession and worst case famine in some parts of the world, the oil and gas must start moving regardless of who is the shipowner.

New comment by baq in "I still prefer MCP over skills"

baq — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:07:17 +0000

Remote MCP solve the delivery and update issues just like saas and browsers did for human users. Not much more to it really

New comment by baq in "Claude mixes up who said what"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:58:58 +0000

LLMs are essentially pure functions.

New comment by baq in "Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:04:11 +0000

AIS over there is jammed and spoofed. Nobody wants to get bombed and certain Greek and Chinese owners run the strait dark with their crews apparently very happy about the danger pay.

New comment by baq in "Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:01:59 +0000

You need to send an analyst there with binoculars, a box of cigars and $15k in cash to get realtime trustworthy data

New comment by baq in "Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:42:05 +0000

It's a fallacy to think all insiders are big players. Small fish want a piece, too, and are not constrained in the same ways the big ones are.

New comment by baq in "AI Cybersecurity After Mythos: The Jagged Frontier"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 06:40:30 +0000

> TL;DR: We tested Anthropic Mythos's showcase vulnerabilities on small, cheap, open-weights models. They recovered much of the same analysis. AI cybersecurity capability is very jagged: it doesn't scale smoothly with model size, and the moat is the system into which deep security expertise is built, not the model itself. Mythos validates the approach but it does not settle it yet.

Notably, Kimi K2 and GPT-OSS-120b do quite well when provided with the isolated context. Article seems to be heavily LLM-assisted, but the content itself is good.

New comment by baq in "Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:56:07 +0000

Futures are sometimes informed hours earlier than Twitter was the point

New comment by baq in "Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:46:06 +0000

Nobody is forcing anybody to place the bets, but if you see credible money flows into eg. Middle East cease fire bets, you can decide to fill up your tank today, or not. We can’t think for you here, if you don’t see anything useful in the price then it’s time to educate yourself until you do. You should consider these bets more trustworthy than any news you read in mainstream media. There might even be a way to fund journalism here, though ethics are quite muddy indeed.

New comment by baq in "Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:39:21 +0000

On prediction markets there are plenty of inefficiencies; e.g. an MM could take both sides of the bet when odds don’t add up to 1, which apparently happens more often than we all think

New comment by baq in "Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:37:17 +0000

Come to think of it, what insider trading in oil even is…? Oil isn’t a company and doesn’t have any capacity for material non-public information. The biggest players are all insiders on this market anyway. Why should Barron be prosecuted and Trafigura not…?

New comment by baq in "Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:31:13 +0000

Exactly. Barter is super insanely expensive in comparison with the most manipulated paper markets; thus, if you closed the current markets, the participants would be very highly incentivized to create a new one, which would likely be worse on all accounts.

New comment by baq in "Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:22:16 +0000

Who do you think places those bets

New comment by baq in "Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:21:23 +0000

Arguably it’s a very useful property of prediction markets as long as everyone is aware that’s the case.

New comment by baq in "App Store sees 84% surge in new apps as AI coding tools take off"

baq — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 05:19:34 +0000

Interesting, I made me think when was the last time I wanted to look at the App Store and it was… never? I mean I have to to install something, but I never go there just to window shop. (My kids do, but that’s because the games have video previews.)

New comment by baq in "Claude Managed Agents"

baq — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 20:22:44 +0000

I assume Mythos, if ever released to the wide public at all, will only be available in the Claude cloud harness. (Not counting special enterprise and government contracts naturally.)

New comment by baq in "I've been waiting over a month for Anthropic to respond to my billing issue"

baq — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 20:08:28 +0000

> why would you even want to use their services in the future?

Uhhh my base case is you will be forced to or just be forgotten, not unlike not having a cell phone or a bank account.

New comment by baq in "US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire"

baq — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:13:17 +0000

this would be a worse crisis than we've just had; it'd put China (if not all of Asia) directly against the USA and would put Australia in a very peculiar spot.

New comment by baq in "System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]"

baq — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:29:20 +0000

Everyone, once AI diffuses enough. You’ll be unhireable if you don’t use AI in a year or two.

New comment by baq in "Sonnet 4.6 Elevated Rate of Errors"

baq — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 07:51:33 +0000

good luck getting mythos/spud quality models open