Even if that’s not true, given that hardware and software efficiency gains can be expected to continue it’s likely that this is the most expensive the current level of intelligence will ever be.

The frontier models may increase in price, but only because they’re also more capable. If you hold intelligence constant, price should fall over time.

It’s powerful and pleasant to use. Even the release marketing page is beautiful and well-made.

I like open source as much as the next guy, but outside of developer tools there is little that comes close to Blender in terms of utility and UX.

Is it funding? Specific individuals? Are there PMs and designers? Whatever it is, it’s working!

If you could crop your real field of view somehow to just the photo in question, then would it be as though nothing changed?

(Like, I get that things outside the phone image would change, but does the image your imagining change? Does the sensation change?)

It depends on what you mean by “see”.

It’s nothing like seeing with my eyes, and it’s nothing like dreaming.

When I “see” it is abstract. There are impressions and sensations. I can recall the qualities of something - even the visual qualities - but it doesn’t feel like sight.

Can you remember what something smells like? I can recall a foul smell, but I don’t recoil because it doesn’t actually feel like smelling. Still, I have an impression of the smell. Sight works the same for me.

Pull up the image on your phone and look at it. Now close your eyes and imagine the image as accurately as you can.

Is it as though you didn’t close your eyes at all? Do you see it the same way as when your eyes are open?

——

“So you can really see things in your head when your eyes are closed?”

Yeah!

“And it’s as though you’re seeing the object in front of you?”

Yeah, you don’t have that?

“So it’s like you’re really seeing it? It’s the sensation of sight?“

Well… it’s kind of different. I’m not really seeing it.

——

…and around we go.

Personally, I can see images when I dream, but I don’t see anything at all if I’m conscious and closing my eyes. I can recite the qualities of an object, and this generates impressions of the object in my head, but it’s not really seeing. It’s vibe seeing.

I can get the feel of a piece of code just by looking at it. Even if you blurred the image, just the shape of the lines of code conveys a lot of information.

I also have an email on a .email domain, I have seen it occasionally get rejected by web forms. .party would likely have similar issues.

The last time this happened it turned into some kind of sleep paralysis where I became aware of my physical body but was unable to move as I crossfaded between dream and reality.

The diversity of geography may be critical, though. You can only drive the Embarcadero so many times before your loss bottoms out.

In contrast, Tesla is using dumb cameras and just dumping boatloads of data into their model. It’s a more general solution. Maybe the reference doesn’t fit perfectly - the model architecture is likely similar under the hood - but there’s some analogy there.

But it isn’t obvious to me that better sensors outperform better data.

Waymo works any time, except where it doesn’t.

Tesla works any where, except when it doesn’t.

Tesla FSD already works everywhere, even on unpaved roads. It just doesn’t work as well as Waymo.

Waymo works very well, just not in as many places as Tesla.

You might bet on Waymo because they have a fully working product already, but I’m betting on Tesla because of the vast amount of training data they are collecting. There’s a bitter lesson here.