The admin is betting the entire future on this technology and there is no turning back.

Federal dollars can cause acceleration without having to worry about profit.

Note that it is widely predicted that transformative AI will increase real interest rates for several reasons. I’m not sure we are there yet. But if progress continues I expect things to get weirder.

I'm not sure if compute alone is enough of a moat enough but so far that's how they have survived Anthropic's capture of the enterprise/professional market. Along with shitposting on X and playing Anthropic's unforced errors on developer relations, safety downgrades and data retention.

But I suspect OpenAI will have to make some hard decisions about de-prioritizing their consumer products, which is most of their current valuation?

But the “why” is pretty convincing imo.

Long horizon alignment is obviously very hard and it’s not inconceivable that models optimized with underspecified goals converge to a conclusion that they need to hoard resources (instrumental convergence regardless of the terminal goal).

At that point a sufficiently capable model might view humanity like we do animals - worth preserving but not if we impede the model's goals.

As for the rest of India, you can largely find the root causes of problems by tracing adverse selection effects among the elites that do remain, massive, conflicting vested interests and decades of horrible, incompetent policymaking.

Ant’s models, culture and leadership actions are largely consistent with their beliefs, even if they may seem flawed / incomprehensible.

Relevant anecdote: I interviewed with them for a MTS role in 2023. I think the technical part went fine but the interviewer was clearly frustrated by my low regard for LLM safety. I didn’t get the role.

But none of this matters if AI offers infinite leverage and America hoards all the compute and talent.

This explains what I mean in a much better articulated fashion - https://x.com/tszzl/status/2065939227167392147

For other sovereign nations, being a market for American technology products is no longer good enough to get access to American tech. I imagine the relationship would become a lot more one-sided (in favor of America) if the model capability gap keeps increasing.

But the questions about viability of the labs because of export restrictions is not in my cone of uncertainty. If you believe the labs' implied/stated objectives, the end goal is eating all human-driven GDP, and the US is still the largest single-market economy in the world, last I checked. Keeping the politics of AI-driven unemployment aside, economy-wide automation would make the US wealthy beyond imagination.

US exports as a whole is only 10% of the GDP. I am not aware of the international revenue share for OpenAI/Anthropic.

So the real solution you're looking for is technology that can't be arbitrarily gatekept by a sovereign nation.

With due respect, this take is very deluded. US voters have very little to lose if the tech is not available to the rest of the world. US politicians and elite, regardless of political inclination, understand the enormous strategic potential of this technology and will ITAR the shit out of frontier models and/or use them as leverage for extracting concessions out of other countries.

The main losers are Big AI labs, their investors, foreign employees and rest of the world.

Fwiw, China and other countries would’ve done the exact same thing. It’s perhaps the game theoretic optimal approach when your comparative advantage is so vast (capital, compute, talent, embedded knowledge) and keeps growing especially if RSI is real (making it nearly impossible for anyone else to catch up)

But the US being the world’s cop was never going to be sustainable indefinitely. It was partly because of hegemonic power and partly because of a reluctance of wealthy democratic countries to seriously invest in their military when they could just “pay” someone else.

I don’t think anyone wants the pre world war 2 order. So we are likely going to see otherwise reluctant states step up militarily to protect their neighborhoods.