Hacker News: cadlin

New comment by cadlin in "The Elizabeth Holmes documentary “You Can See Everything” is deceiving"

cadlin — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 03:26:03 +0000

This is very wrong.

New comment by cadlin in "U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected"

cadlin — Thu, 26 Oct 2023 16:19:50 +0000

Both of those numbers are wrong. It's more like 6% deficit and 8% GDP growth.

New comment by cadlin in "U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected"

cadlin — Thu, 26 Oct 2023 16:18:25 +0000

If you project the first three quarters of GDP growth, the US should end the year with $27.6 Trillion of GDP. The annualized rate is 8.5% without adjusting for inflation. Inflation adjusted, the annual rate of growth is 3.75% in the first three quarters.

In that case, the $1.7 Trillion deficit is 6.1% of GDP, so actually a half-percent lower than your calculations.

New comment by cadlin in "Supreme Court strikes down affirmative action in college admissions"

cadlin — Thu, 29 Jun 2023 16:02:54 +0000

There's a saying in my country. "The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread."

New comment by cadlin in "The global health-care collapse"

cadlin — Mon, 16 Jan 2023 13:08:59 +0000

If anyone is interested in the thread in question: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22640905

I bookmarked it at the time, as I was worried about the hospital system collapsing where I lived like it had in northern Italy.

New comment by cadlin in "The housing market faces its next crisis as May rent and mortgages come due"

cadlin — Mon, 04 May 2020 20:26:52 +0000

As a renter and voter, my preferred policy solution is to suspend rental evictions, let the foreclosures go forward as mortgages are a risky asset, then let the market sort it out at auction. That sounds like a more market-oriented solution to me.

New comment by cadlin in "The Amish health care system"

cadlin — Thu, 23 Apr 2020 02:44:23 +0000

The most expensive plan for my family (2 parents and a young child) is $367 a month. Equivalent coverage in the US would be thousands of dollars.

New comment by cadlin in "Paul Graham’s thoughts, discoveries, and tricks on parenthood"

cadlin — Sun, 19 Apr 2020 19:11:41 +0000

Every single one of the past five presidents?

New comment by cadlin in "Expanded access programs for Remdesivir"

cadlin — Sun, 05 Apr 2020 17:04:58 +0000

I don't know the answer to the best time to give antivirals, but the lung inflammation happens for some, but not all patients. A non-trivial amount have relatively normal lungs, low oxygen saturation, and an extremely high heartrate.

The reasons for this are unknown, but it is an active area of research. Some doctors are beginning to call for treating covid patients like they altitude sickness.[1]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7096066/

New comment by cadlin in "The U.S. tried to build a new fleet of ventilators"

cadlin — Sun, 29 Mar 2020 22:04:23 +0000

Doctors that don't know how to properly operate a vent are currently a problem in the US. Not blaming them, as there doesn't seem to be any real alternative.

Here's an /r/medicine discussion of it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/fr0x3m/how_do_you...

New comment by cadlin in "CDC coronavirus testing decision likely to haunt nation for months to come"

cadlin — Tue, 24 Mar 2020 22:13:07 +0000

Good systems would obviously be desirable, but this is basic executive competence. A US response to a potential pandemic brewing in China should have been a top White House priority since early January. When there are coordination problems, it's the responsibility of the person at the top to sort it out. They didn't even try and fail to fix the problem, they identified an entirely different concern: the threat to the stock market, which is where the response concentrated.

New comment by cadlin in "$5000 per violation of price-gouging in CA"

cadlin — Sat, 14 Mar 2020 17:17:30 +0000

>To a very good approximation, the marginal impact of any hoarders on the scarcity of a product is zero.

This is pure ideology. Do you have any evidence that a single person buying 10,000 masks from every hardware store in an entire state has no marginal impact on the scarcity of a product? Basic math would suggest this is not the case.

New comment by cadlin in "United States to fund gun-violence research after 20-year freeze"

cadlin — Tue, 17 Dec 2019 05:46:56 +0000

That Medium post isn't arguing in good faith either. He criticizes a bunch of graphs on Vox or Mother Jones, but doesn't bother engaging with any actual academic research. The news websites may be imprecise, but their underlying point isn't wrong.[1]

Similarly, if I were to argue that anti-gun control people deliberately argue in good faith, I wouldn't use a random Hacker News commenter as evidence, but would instead point to the fact that John Lott fabricated survey evidence[2].

[1]https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-an... [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20130304061928/http:/www.cse.uns...

New comment by cadlin in "The math of media bosses who told Deadspin to ‘stick to sports’ doesn’t add up"

cadlin — Fri, 01 Nov 2019 21:39:29 +0000

On the other hand, if you buy a business entirely dependent on human capital, then proceed to instigate a mass resignation, there is no amount of spin that adds up to anything other than boneheaded decision making.

New comment by cadlin in "America’s New Sex Bureaucracy"

cadlin — Wed, 25 Sep 2019 03:02:59 +0000

Are you certain of this? It's a common misunderstanding about campus consent policies and it might be true somewhere, but it is far from standard. It might be a part of lower quality consent literature, but that's different from the actual standards determined by school policy.

E.g., The University of California's policy around alcohol and consent is:

>The Respondent knew or a reasonable person should have known that the Complainant was unable to consent because the Complainant was incapacitated,in that the Complainant was... unable to understand the fact, nature, or extent of the sexual activity due to the influence of drugs, alcohol, or medication

New comment by cadlin in "America’s New Sex Bureaucracy"

cadlin — Wed, 25 Sep 2019 02:54:46 +0000

You think it's literally illegal to fire someone for spitting on their boss?

New comment by cadlin in "US takes 'richest nation on earth' crown from Switzerland"

cadlin — Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:09:54 +0000

France pays less for healthcare than the US and gets more. A lot more.

To pick a statistic, their maternal mortality rate is 1/3 of the US.

Because the US is a wealthier country overall it can waste more money and receive worse results. That isn't an argument in favor the US healthcare system.

Also, do you realize that the graph you are citing isn't tracking the cost of US healthcare to a US citizen, it is literally saying Americans spend 5% of their personal income on health insurance. It is not counting the taxes they already pay, the cost to their employers, etc.

New comment by cadlin in "To plot my next murder, I went to the Body Farm"

cadlin — Sun, 21 Jul 2019 14:54:25 +0000

Only 60% of murders in the US are solved. The police are not as diligent as you'd think.

https://www.vox.com/2018/9/24/17896034/murder-crime-clearanc...

New comment by cadlin in "How to parent more predictably (2018)"

cadlin — Thu, 13 Jun 2019 16:15:13 +0000

Perhaps they're decent parents, and you're a lousy judge of parenting?

New comment by cadlin in "Mary Meeker’s 2019 internet trends report [pdf]"

cadlin — Tue, 11 Jun 2019 20:40:00 +0000

The document is left to right. Tapping down goes to a cover(?) page.