It’s happened before, and Australia has used discrete and unconventional means to disrupt it.

RAN could probably surge 3 Collins boats depending on timings of depot level maintenance.

P8 paired with C17/C130 used as arsenal planes to saturate PLAN air defence and F35 hitting hard targets with LRASM would make it a slaughter.

PLAN’s recent live fire exercise in the commercial air corridor between Australia and NZ single handedly justifies increased defence spending for ANZ.

Personally, I think China’s horrible demographic wall it’s about to hit at 100kph combined with a stagnant economy(140+ car makers today that will surely drop to 20 or less by 2035) leaves Xi with plenty of domestic crisis to solve.

The risk is if Xi needs(or needs to create) an external crisis to activate nationalism and deflect away from domestic strike(akin to Argentina-Falklands 1982).

Even Taiwan might be a stretch too far. Xi will need a guaranteed win.

Indonesia lacks the force projection capability to even project an expeditionary force into Northern Australia.

Sustaining an expeditionary force into Northern Australia by Indonesia would leave it incredibly vulnerable to air and sea supply chain interdiction.

With first hand professional domain experience, and without arrogance or hubris, an Indonesian invasion of Northern Australia would be disastrous for Indonesia.

China invading Australia would entail a much more capable, but entirely untested, expeditionary force over much longer and far more vulnerable supply chains.

With just FVEY intelligence support and FVEY forces already forward deployed into Australia, the likelihood of China successfully establishing and sustaining a beachhead to break into Australia with a conventional invasion would be similar to that of Indonesia, due to very long and very vulnerable supply chains.

Unless China glassed Australia with nuclear weapons, any attempt by Xi and the CCP's PLAN/PLAAF/PLA to conventionally invade Australia would be a moon shot too far.

China's fleet steaming south would be severely attrited transitting limited maritime traffic route bottlenecks that would be akin to cattle chutes in a slaughter house, while China's own energy/food/raw industrial materials commercial maritime supply chains would be existentially vulnerable.

That's just to Australia's current fleet of Collins class submarines and tanker supported F35s.

Australia's AUKUS nuclear submarine investment will magnify that current independent threat to China's maritime supply chain.

Which is odd, considering this comedic skit is partially true:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cGYQneo-G8

Unconventional attack is far, far more likely. Thus requiring a focus on national resilience and adaptability to crisis.

For the Five Eyes(Canada, US, UK, Australia, NZ) that don’t ever need to worry about conventional invasion, it’s far more about national resilience that relates to national defence.

How does a nation rapidly adapt to warfare that is occurring beneath the threshold of conventional warfare, and in some cases general public detection.

It’s not about fighting future trench warfare, it’s likely more about adaption to disruption to the nation of the electrical grid, logistics systems, and digital platforms.

A contemporary civil defence optimised not to defend against nuclear war but to defend against cyber, informational, psychological, and supply chain warfare.

Less continuity of government(as per Cold awards doctrine), more continuity of economy.

That’s just my 0.02c.

But if it mimics the rise of the same idea in Japan, it could indicate peak real estate as coincided relatively closely with the introduction of the 50 year mortgage in Japana,

Different circumstances, different “song”. But perhaps a similar tune.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfRi2Vl3JQ

Although many might contest Pizza Hut qualifying as real pizza. :)

It’s a shame authentic pizza didn’t grab hold earlier, especially with the origins of pizza being egalitarian peasant food.

Two early post-Soviet pizza events, both involving Pizza Hut, are somewhat relevant here.

Not so much about the introduction of Pizza, but the Pizza Hut proxy introduction of capitalism(western success) and dissolution of communism(Soviet failure).

Gorbachev Pizza Hut commercial(post Soviet collapse and during Russian Financial Crisis):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUTIc-f1h3E

Pizza Hut also paid the Russian space program(in deep financial distress at the time) a considerable sum to have cosmonauts eat Pizza Hut in space, delivered on a Soviet-era Proton rocket carrying a 50ft Pizza Hut logo.

So pizza certainly existed in the waning days of the Soviet Union, but a deeper question might be what role did pizza(Pizza Hut specifically) play in influencing, exemplifying, or merely footnoting the troubled geopolitics between Russia and the pizza eating west?

Maintenance, repair, insurance, fuel, residual value.

I would think Tesla’s lower residual value from price declines would result in a poorer(possibly much poorer) showing using a total cost of ownership framework.

And I would think Toyota, especially Toyota plug-in hybrids, would get a strong boost in total cost of ownership rankings.

Wouldn’t an important inflection point for EVs be winning a total costs of ownership comparison with Toyota plug in hybrids?

Compromises due to conflicting design and regulatory requirements seem destined to result in The Homer: https://simpsons.fandom.com/wiki/The_Homer

But we seem to be moving at velocity towards a peer or near peer adversary environment.

An AC130H Spectre(Spirit03) was shot down by an Iraqi MANPAD crew when it remained on station after first light supporting USMC units that stopped an Iraqi probing attack in 1991.

When facing an adversary with modern MANPADs(or better) and night vision/thermal targeting optics, Spectre is going to be at risk.

Leave the gunship over the horizon and/or outside of the air defence bubble and launch a swarm of cheap drones.

Drones for command, control, communication.

Drones for surveillance and targeting.

Drones for electronic and kinetic attack.

Launched, and potentially recovered, from the C130 ramp, jump door, and/or retrofittable ejection system like a sonobuoy dispenser in a P3/P8.

Potentially any C130 could be configured with palletised launch/recovery systems as well as palletised drone operator consoles.

C130 configured as an arsenal plane would probably be more capable and survivable than the current Spectre, assuming equivalent flight crew and defensive systems.

https://replit.com/learn/100-days-of-python

I just think he has been very consistent in “doing what he says, and saying what he does” over the long-term.

And that his personal credibility is tied to this conflict, so escalation is likely.

Escalation by Putin doesn’t guarantee victory(or the semblance of it), but de-escalation by Putin is a guarantee of failure(credibility).

The US has just leaked its unhappiness with Ukraine conducting targeted assassination in Russian territory(seperate from train/logistics sabotage).

But a dirty bomb detonated in Russian territory is far more likely to be a Russian casus belli, akin to Nazi false flag action in Poland in 1939 and Putin/Shoigu false flag action in 1999 with the Moscow Apartment Bombings.

I agree numerous tactical nuclear weapons would be required for combat operations, but not necessarily for information operations designed to shape western democratic citizenry.

People like us in the west can more easily afford to have opinions on Ukraine.

People in China, and particularly India can’t afford to have as many opinions when they are struggling to afford food and energy,

COVID related fiscal and monetary inflation is eating a chunk of the real gains made in recent decades.

A bit hyperbolic I know, but India has continued and will continue to purchase energy from Russia as will China even if a small number of nuclear weapons are used within Russian territory, within Russian controlled territory, or within Ukraine.

Food and energy price inflation pressures matter more to many countries than whatever is happening in Ukraine, 3rd world problems rather than 1st world privilege.

Just my 0.02c

People can debate all day on whether Putin is a genuinely and popularly elected President, a totalitarian dictator, or a mafia boss.

But what’s not up for debate is Putin’s absolute consistency.

Putin does what he says, and says what he does.

If Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons, he likely will, the only debate is when.

The real threat of Putin using nuclear weapons shouldn’t stop efforts to shape the desired end-state.

A realistic hope may be HOW nuclear weapons are deployed.

An atmospheric test display over remote Russsian territory that disrupts the test ban treaty and global markets suffer some temporary disruption.

A high altitude atmospheric detonation over Ukraine that disrupts Ukrainian communications, western military support for Ukraine, and global markets suffer longer lasting disruption.

A tactical nuclear weapon detonation over Ukrainian combat units that disrupts Ukrainian offensive, western military support for Ukraine, and global markets suffer lasting disruption.

Western coalitions have disrupted the Russian economy with sanctions, but China/India provide two major energy export customers.

The west is most prone to economic disruption in Q4 Oct-Dec.

In consumer-led discretionary income dependent sectors, Q4 can be 50% of annual revenue with 25% of annual revenue coming from just mid-Nov to mid-Dec.

If I was Putin I would create and amplify tension targeting western markets and consume sentiment from now until Mid-Dec.

Personally, I don’t worry about a Cold War era Cuban Missile Crisis or 80’s Threads/Day After threat of total nuclear annihilation.

But I do strongly believe we are at greater risk of a limited nuclear display or tactical detonation than at any time since August 1945.

Ukrainian forces have a lot of offensive momentum and high morale, which leaves them vulnerable to hubris.

I am sympathetic and in 100% agreement with Ukraine to defend its sovereignty.

But Ukraine attempting to recover 100% of its pre-2014 territory will likely result in nuclear weapons being used.

My hope it that such a nuclear exchange is limited and that the global economic impact is only 1-3x the ‘20-‘22 COVID disruption.

Solidarity in Poland, supported with plausible deniability at arms length by the CIA.

Solidarity was a Polish labour union that grew massively in size from its foundation in 1980 to evolve into a civil resistance social movement using non-violent means to achieve change.

In 9 years Solidarity went from inception to leading Poland’s post-totalitarian communist pivot towards democracy.

In a program called QRHELPFUL, CIA provided cash as well as communicatio/distribution equipment via 3rd party cutouts to prevent the Soviet KGB and Polish UB/SB from portraying Solidarity as a western puppet.

It was incredibly successful, but it would best be described as providing a bit of tailwind to existing organic momentum.

CIA didn’t create Solidarity, they simply backed the right player in a non-kinetic way that has had lasting impact.

Poland’s post-communism pivot initially led by a Solidarity coalition government would be considered a considerable success for the people of Poland in terms of economic value creation and political freedom.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan war of 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine war of 2022 have both displayed the growing need to prioritise sensor camouflage.

The contemporary peer on peer battlefield runs 24/7, but humans require periodic quality rest.

The two most recent peer on peer conflicts display how stopping and harbouring up makes you an easier fixed target.

The conundrum of the modern battlefield is that if you stop, you die. But if you don’t stop, you face rapid cognitive decline and die.

Sensor camouflage could be an insurance policy that meets or exceeds minimum rest and recovery needs of soldiers as well as improving expensive asset survivability in a world looking increasingly like “SCUD the Disposable Assassin” where loitering munitions are getting cheap enough to target individual combatants.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8600582/

The article details how men match far less frequently than women, with most matches by women for males enjoyed by only a small population of highly desired males.

Highly desired males have a far greater selection of females to choose from than average males, and would be far more likely to enjoy the benefits without the relationship commitment.

Your being ghosted immediately following matching or their failed efforts at immediate physical intimacy may be an indicator that you are only pursuing highly desired males.

If so, then maybe you are caught in loop where your initial choices in highly desirable males have a ‘cereal aisle syndrome’ or Netflix scrolling problem in selecting you.

To be blunt, maybe visually you are an 8 striving to match with a 10?

Getting beyond just the visual and to the substantial requires in person meeting for most males to void being filtered out.

I can’t really offer any advice other than keep your ‘attack surface area’ high to increase opportunities for serendipity!

Don’t underestimate serendipity.

And just surf the waves life sends your way.

Good luck and I hope you are happy and full of purpose regardless of relationship and kid status.

Putin profits most from tension that maximises profit and influence.

So optimise for tension beneath the threshold of war.

Because war is bad for business. And business is booming selling energy to the EU.

It’s not hard to allow a “kill list” to be intercepted because it’s not going to be shared publicly due to the need to protect sources and methods.

But it’s easy to dangle it out and hook a sucker fish to create tension and potential embarrassment for the west.

The vast majority of both Russian government revenue and Russian export earnings is energy and energy royalties.

Russia’s foreign policy is optimised for tension rather than war.

War is expensive.

Tension, beneath the threshold of war, enhances profit and influence for Putin and Russia.

It also had the CTR-41 tape deck with data transfer at roughly the speed of a good typist.

I learned BASIC by copying short word game programs from magazines and just playing around with it.

Things have certainly changed in the last 40 years.

It was quite impressive.

As was the considerable efforts the town of Tekapo has gone to in order to limit light pollution with all external public lighting.

Just south of that location is an NZDF training area where one night I was able to observe an object burn across the night sky thru a night vision monocular and a thermal sighting system during an overnight training activity.

The seemingly substantial size and slow speed of the object going across the horizon from east to west was really unsettling, but there was nothing in the news the next day.

Several years later at an Act in Space Hackathon an attendee helped me determine that it was likely a booster stage breaking up from a Vandenberg Air Force Base launch.