My expectation is Fable 5.5 is next overall improvement, and my bet is OpenAI's "Bel" will be the next competitive one (or, their lack of safety culture will bite them/us in the process).

Personal efficiency is noted as never hitting my limit despite it doing huge amounts of work at a time (ex: rewrite my notes app in swift for ios and install on my phone, 2 hours later its opened on my phone, looks nice, is working (base set of features). No follow up prompts, around 2 hours of work. 45% of my 5-hour limit.

Work efficiency is spend, task complexity, code quality (how often i have to steer - rare now), and wiring it up to more stuff (ex having it setup metrics and dashboards etc etc).

Is it increasingly though? As of 5.5 I stopped using other models all together (and I used to regularly swap, indifferently). My $20 sub no longer runs out, even though I do _much_ more than ever. I use it for every single task at work, even trivial ones, and my spend has gone down. I was given _free_ Codex and realized... it still wasn't worth it. My rational brain says Anthropic has no moat and this is temporary. The progress of all the other models is amazing. I certainly wouldn't bet on them.

But if I look at the actions of myself and the most competent coders around me, they are all doing this same thing - using 5.5 and not really looking around any longer. And we know its not even their best model. OpenAI may respond, Chinese labs may catch up. But for the moment, Anthropic seem to have added separation, not lost it, based on current vs prior _behavior_ of coders I know at home and work.

Is this true? I'd heard loosely that the higher intelligence models are less reliant on the harness; I'm still wading into the details of those claims so maybe someone more well versed can chime in, but my expectation was the current phase of harness engineering was likely only needed temporarily. I suppose turning Opus 5.5 loose in a variety of harnesses could be a decent if anecdotal test of that?

[1]: https://cloverich.github.io/artifacts/horizon-plate/dist/hor...

The president proposes the entire budget, and can veto the entire budget regardless of which party is in power. Of course Congress has immense influence and you also can't pass a budget they don't agree with. That doesn't change that not only does the president matter (the claim I'm refuting), they are the most important single person that matters, by design.

...unfortunately it took 57 years to unravel, but the cryptic exploit resulting in our telomeres suddenly expiring took a mere 42.

time will tell if it can make it the way i like but.... it can definitely get far. Used 40% of my session limits on my $20/mo sub.

(...I also find them annoying to look at, idk why)

So maybe them providing service at literally all costs to themselves is a smart strategy long term.

I don't really know what the best approach is to it, but I don't think a simple hands off, engage with the argument as such, is a winning strategy. I don't really like the alternatives any better.

Obviously supply matters most but that doesnt mean demand isnt still a significant factor.