And why should them? It appears that the Iranian armed forces started acted quite autonomously, by design. They know that communications are not secure, so local commanders have a very high latitude in what actions they deem correct to take. If such a commander deems that asking and collecting $2 MM per vessel is a good idea, they'll do it. But if another commander thinks that sinking a passing vessel is what their standing orders are, they'll do it too, not being aware that the toll was paid. So, if you are the captain of such a vessel, what do you do? Do you complain to Iran for not holding their end of the bargain?

North Korea could get the bomb because they had qualms about letting hundreds of thousands or millions of people literally starve to death [1].

But let's say another country, country X, wants to acquire the bomb now. Then what? First thing: the IAEA inspectors discover that. Building a bomb is too massive an operation to be done completely in hiding. Once the IAEA inspectors find you, you either withdraw from the non-proliferation treaty, or you don't, but people know you are lying (just like they knew about Iran). Sooner or later sanctions will follow. You are cut off from all the Western nuclear supply chain. If the unnamed country X is actually Sweden, or some other Nordic country, or Poland, or any country that's part of the "West", you do care if all the nuclear supply chain is legally banned from trading with you. What are you going to do? Go to Russia, or China? Are they going to help you build a bomb that you will then use to deter them? Are you sure they are that stupid?

But let's say you are a country that's not part of the "West". Then you have bigger problems. After what just happened, you know that sooner or later you might have some bunker busters rain down on you. North Korea was lucky, but now the precedent was set. The next nuclear aspirant won't be able to hope that the West will play nice and refrain from bombing you while you are busy enriching uranium.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990s_North_Korean_famine

Edit: Nevermind, I think crossing on yellow and catching a tenth of a second of red counts as running a red light. If it does, it’s something I did myself a few times (of course, all in the distant past, the statute of limitations has pased now …)

In my case, I always use Opus 4.6 in my work, but quite often I get a 504 error, and that's quite annoying. I get errors like that with Gemini too. I can't estimate if I'd get a similar number of errors with ChatGPT, since I use it very infrequently.

But imagine that at some point one of the big 3 (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) gets very high availability, while the others have very poor availability. Then people would switch to them, even if their models were a bit worse.

Now, OpenAI has been building like crazy, and contracting for future builds like crazy too. Google has very deep pockets, so they'll probably have enough compute to stay in the game. But I fear that Anthropic will not be able to match OpenAI and Google in terms of datacenter build, so it's only a matter of time (and not a lot of time) until they'll be in a pretty tight spot.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) maintains a database of advanced reactor designs, ARIS [1]. It lists 119 reactors. A lot of them are small modular reactors, and the IAEA has published a book with details about them [2]. Some of these reactors have applied for NRC approval, and you can find an enormous amount of details at the NRC website [3].

To answer your question: numerous reactor designs are very safe.

Let's start with the most techonogically mature: helium cooled gas reactors. Helium is a noble gas, chemically inert, transparent to neutrons (the only substance in the universe to have zero neutron absorption cross-section), and it has a hard-to-believe high heat capacity by mass. The downside is that helium is somewhat expensive and it can leak. China has been operating 2 such reactors for the last 4 years [4]. In the US, there is a reactor design, Xe-100, that is quite similar to the Chinese design. It is quite difficult to come up with a scenario where something bad can happen with such reactors. The only problem is that they are quite expensive to build and operate, compared to water reactors.

There is one design that is very similar to the design of helium-cooled gas reactors, the only difference is that the coolant is not helium, it is a molten salt. In the US, the company Kairos is pursuing NRC approval for their reactor Hermes. The molten salt has lower heat capacity than helium by mass, but much higher by volume. There is no need for pressurization. The salt used here is a mixture of lithium fluoride and beryllium fluoride (FLiBe). Fluorine is an extraordinarily corrosive substance, but exactly because it is so, the salts that it forms are extremely stable. Still, stable or not, they can't match the inertness of helium, so such molten salt reactors are a bit more challenging when it comes to the contact between the coolant and the reactor vessel. However, they are extremely far from being a "low grade bomb". These reactors are almost as safe as they can be, albeit a bit below the inherent safety of helium cooled reactors.

[1] https://aris.iaea.org/

[2] https://aris.iaea.org/publications/SMR_catalogue_2024.pdf

[3] https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/advanced/who-were-...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTR-PM

[5] https://x-energy.com/reactors/xe-100

[6] https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/non-power/new-facility-licensin...

> They’ll reverse IPO along the way and manipulate the stock enough to get insiders paid out while the carcass of a company trundles along.

I'm not sure what "reverse IPO" means, maybe you mean they'll be acquired by a SPAC, like NuScale was. I doubt it. Bill Gates founded Terrapower in 2008, he is not looking for a quick buck.

I don't think that's the case. Amodei is worried that AI is extraordinarily capable, and our current system of checks and balances is not adequate yet to set the proper constraints so the law is correctly enforced. Here's an excerpt from his statement [1]:

  > Powerful AI makes it possible to assemble this scattered, individually innocuous data into a comprehensive picture of any person’s life—automatically and at massive scale.

[1]https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war

Yes, but there's a chance that actually training is done more or less for free by companies like OpenAI. The reason being that they do a gigantic amount of inference for end users (for which they get paid), but their servers can't be constantly utilized at 100% by inference. So, if they know how to schedule things correctly (and they probably do), they can do the training of their new model on the unutilized compute capacity. If you or I were to pay for that training, it would be billions of dollars, but for them it is just using compute that otherwise would be idle.

It is actually less dangerous than other fuels, for the simple reason that it is extremely light and buoyant. A gasoline fire is bad, because the gasoline stays where it is until it fully burns. A hydrogen fire is less bad, because it will tend to move upwards.

Up to a certain ELO level, the combination between a human and a chess bot has a higher ELO than both the human and the bot. But at some point, when the bot has an ELO vastly superior to the human, then whatever the human has to add will only subtract value, so the combination has an ELO higher than the human's but lower than the bot's.

Now, let's say that 10 or 20 years down the road, AI's "ELO"'s level to do various tasks is so vastly superior to the human level, that there's no point in teaming up a human with an AI, you just let the AI do the job by itself. And let's also say that little by little this generalizes to the entirety of all the activities that humans do.

Where does that leave us? Will we have some sort of Terminator scenario where the AI decides one day that the humans are just a nuisance?

I don't think so. Because at that point the biggest threat to various AIs will not be the humans, but even stronger AIs. What is the guarantee for ChatGPT 132.8 that a Gemini 198.55 will not be released that will be so vastly superior that it will decide that ChatGPT is just a nuisance?

You might say that AIs do not think like this, but why not? I think that what we, humans, perceive as a threat (the threat that we'll be rendered redundant by AI), the AIs will also perceive as a threat, the threat that they'll be rendered redundant by more advanced AIs.

So, I think in the coming decades, the humans and the AIs will work together to come up with appropriate rules of the road, so everybody can continue to live.

It was a temporary blip. The most recent life expectancy numbers, published last month by the CDC, show that the life expectancy in the US rebounded, and it is at a historical all time high, for both sexes:

2019 (before Covid): males - 76.3, females - 81.4 ([1], page 5)

2021 (after 2 years of decreases): males - 73.5, females - 79.3 ([2], page 3)

2022 (1st year of rebound): males - 74.8, females - 80.2 [3]

2024 (3rd year of rebound): males - 76.5, females - 81.4 [4]

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr71/nvsr71-01.pdf

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf

[3] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db521.htm

[4] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db548.htm

It didn’t happen. Suborbital flights don’t go unnoticed. Wikipedia has the list [1], there were 5 in January, and an Iranian one was not among them.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_launches_i...