My personal experience has been a lot more balanced. But, I don't want to say that there is no hate and fear on ATProto...

Also, it is not a monolith. There are parts of the internet (arguably like HN) that are off the charts when it comes signal-to-noise ratio, for me personally.

Please say more? Is it because it is a one-time cost, unlike a recurring subscription of Claude/Codex?

Agree. I know enough about the vagaries of scientific progress to not put any money on any timeline but directionally, that's where we are headed.

> And I think the data center buildout will end in carnage.

Disagree. And this is quite the leap from the previous statement, btw. The carnage happens if the demand for general purpose GPU compute disappears and even then there are so many ways to salvage the asset.

I am not sure how a micro model will fundamentally solve it. Would love to understand what dannyw and team did there?

When is Gemma5 coming out? :-)

> The verification is probably the single most important thing that people do not get right, largely.

and so, so, so wrong about giving this prompt (for verification) and expecting that it succeeds at building a "good" app:

> I want you to run the Electron app in the Mac virtual machine, screenshot it, and then look pixel by pixel. Compare it to the Swift version. Don’t stop until you’re done.

Given he has let it rip for two weeks, I am assuming they have been post-training Claude for some version of this to be more _likely_ successful than not. However, IMO, the verification that you get from a visual comparison is shallow.

To state the obvious: there is a lot more than what meets the eye. But, I think, one could prompt a Fable/Opus 5 to actually go verify that "lot more"...

The question is: should one be imperative in asking for a specific types of verification (like a rubric) vs hoping that the Google/Anthropic/Open AI/Moonshot's post-training will take care of it.

I think, as things stand today, even with the best-in-class models today, I would be leaning more imperative. And it is not because I am an expert in SwiftUI or such. It is because I want to be able to say that _I_ (i.e. the human) verified that this thing works.

We de-facto settled on the answer being yes. These foundation models companies have access to such systems.

However, because the answer to the first question is yes, now we need to decide should everyone else be able to defend themselves with neural networks that are perhaps equally capable but are not sold by these foundation model companies as a product.

I think the answer to the second question has to be a yes, IMHO.

Now, here is an idea that I have not heard before... and I think there is some merit to this. This is also the sort of thing that a state (looking at you CA, CO, IL, NY) could do, instead of just the federal government.

The frontier is evolving so fast: any regulatory regime that started with a map of capabilities that 2025 frontier had is obsolete. Same would be true next year. This just becomes a whackamole and a government which is well-meaning and has good reasons to regulate, will have trouble keeping up.

But we know this about regulations. Like there is a century of literature on how to do this for new tech. It always targets harm prevention first. I thought Demis had the right framework for that part. I don't know if I agree fully with a self-regulatory regime because can become problematic if you don't have the right people around the table.

Also, “smaller” can mean many different things. The cost is not in storing the weights on disk.

It is in the power required to do the inference with the “active parameters”.

There is increasingly more evidence that those two can be decoupled and more power to those who are pushing on that lever!

This podcast chose its listeners and kept it real. Thanks to everyone who makes it possible. Hope they get a fitting replacement for Melvyn and keep it going!

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1781013

Congratulations to the team at Ai2!

Wow. What a picture! Here's an optimistic take, fwiw: Whenever we have had a paradigm shift in our ability to process information, we have grappled with it by shifting to higher-level tasks.

We tend to "invent" new work as we grapple with the technology. The job of a UX designer did not exist in 1970s (at least not as a separate category employing 1000s of people; now I want to be careful this is HN, so there might be someone on here who was doing that in the 70s!).

And there is capitalism -- if everyone has access to the best-in-class model, then no one has true edge in a competition. That is not a state that capitalism likes. The economics _will_ ultimately kick in. We just need this recent S-curve to settle for a bit.