Hacker News: curuinor

New comment by curuinor in "Cognition exploiting privileged info from competitors"

curuinor — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 17:55:06 +0000

So, uh, lawsuit when?

New comment by curuinor in "The AI Race Just Got Awkward"

curuinor — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 16:40:05 +0000

I don't do business in PRC anymore, haven't for an amount of time that means I don't know anything anymore, basically.

I'm talking like, getting 100x, VC sized returns. Of course you can sell widgets in China, it's a major world economy.

New comment by curuinor in "The AI Race Just Got Awkward"

curuinor — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 16:25:55 +0000

The party has done something about enormous involution in solar panels, for example (https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-solar-industry-upheaval...) and previously steel. They're planning something for cars. They don't on LLM because of the newness and the wish for preeminence.

New comment by curuinor in "The AI Race Just Got Awkward"

curuinor — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 16:24:32 +0000

The youth unemployment rate is at 19% with employment counting as 1 hour a week...

Involution Without Export Is Wasted Effort

curuinor — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 16:15:51 +0000

Article URL: https://earnedintuition.substack.com/p/involution-without-export-is-wasted

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49910849

Points: 7

# Comments: 0

New comment by curuinor in "The AI Race Just Got Awkward"

curuinor — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 16:14:50 +0000

There are 1000 Chinese labs. They are involuting, they cannot coordinate and the state won't let them coordinate because the state wants domination, not actual profits for anybody. So the market forces are allowed to dominate.

Because of the basic huge recession going on in China, you can't actually make money in China doing China things. So they gotta gird up their export stuff and try to export. That entails strong relations with American companies, American PR, English stuff, etc.

If you want an essay about this from a VC, read this one

https://earnedintuition.substack.com/p/involution-without-ex...

New comment by curuinor in "Anthropic IPO leak is insane"

curuinor — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 21:42:08 +0000

We don't have a recent ARR, and their ARR calculation has had irregularities. They really do seem to have eyepopping ARR growth no matter how you slice it, though, but I kind of imagine also eyepopping churn, because of the commodity nature of LLM, even if they claim top bottom and sideways that they decommoditized LLM.

I don't think ROIC on a company that creates superintelligence is infinite. Nothing can defy physical law, nothing can teleport, nothing can reduce the universe's entropy, nothing can go faster than C, so there are structural limits keeping everything finite. Infinities turn people nuts, generally.

New comment by curuinor in "Why Omarchy Exists"

curuinor — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 22:29:48 +0000

that's just... normal linux. you can have any damn linux distro for that

New comment by curuinor in "Aging may be a program, not a breakdown"

curuinor — Tue, 22 Sep 2026 17:28:56 +0000

because of the immortality of financial accounts and such, it's basically what's happened to the economy. ancient 100, 200-year-old trusts choking the viability of laborers doing anything and so on. especially bad in europe.

New comment by curuinor in "University Rescinds Offer to Activist Allegeded to Wipe Phone Before DHS Search"

curuinor — Thu, 17 Sep 2026 16:15:15 +0000

There's cowardice and there's weakness. Because of the reduced enrollment nationally and the successful attacks on grants, universities have to compete for students now and it will be more difficult to take stands, just as us software-touchers find it more difficult to take the kinds of stands we like to take as our positions on the job market become less ironclad. The strong do as they will and the weak do as they must, but that doesn't really prevent the weak from nursing grudges for later.

New comment by curuinor in "Will Taiwan Just Give Up?"

curuinor — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 19:45:01 +0000

Joining to another crater-low birth rate society will not make anything better on that front. No pro-natalist policy I am aware of has actually worked, and I'm regrettably aware of quite a few.

New comment by curuinor in "A.I.'S Effect on the Work Force Is Showing Up in Wages"

curuinor — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:45:50 +0000

My whisper network has talked about cutting junior hires in computer-touching 60, 70, 80%

New comment by curuinor in "AWS says it can't restore some data from mideast facilities struck by Iran"

curuinor — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 22:50:23 +0000

They guaranteed 11 9's durability, didn't they?

e: Yep

https://aws.amazon.com/s3/storage-classes/

New comment by curuinor in "America's Driver's License Breach Is a National Security Disaster"

curuinor — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 18:08:16 +0000

We don't care about the computers, humans are what society is for

New comment by curuinor in "America's Driver's License Breach Is a National Security Disaster"

curuinor — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 16:35:54 +0000

Near the beginning of my career, I talked to a greybeard who harrumphed at me discussing something-or-other and said "computer security is an oxymoron". I thought he was being too pessimistic, nowadays I realize he was right.

New comment by curuinor in "With regulatory capture we will speedrun to a new feudalist time"

curuinor — Sat, 12 Sep 2026 19:29:42 +0000

Feudalism is about the right to violence. Do any of these organizations have private armies? No private armies (I suppose in modern times, also private air forces, tank battalions, nuclear warheads and nuclear triads, drone divisions...), no feudalism. Brutal suppression of underclass folks can be done with or without the state.

Feudalism itself had strong variance in the amount of suppression of the underclass. The albigensian crusade, for example (the anti-cathar crusade) was to suppress the egalitarian anti-clerical sect which had been successfully renegotiating the relation between clerics, nobility and peasants in the favor of the peasants for 100 years by then. That was successful in mostly killing them all. But the dithsmarchen were able to successfully have a de facto peasant republic for 200, 300 years after successfully repelling an invasion in the late 12th century and they got back into the holy roman empire by a negotiated settlement, by dint of being way more armed and harder to invade.

New comment by curuinor in "Anthropic is no longer a frontier lab"

curuinor — Sat, 12 Sep 2026 19:27:50 +0000

They define "frontier lab" in terms of cost-effectiveness, but LLM stuff is going down in price for a given model with a robust software-sized growth curve. It's just that there's a model size war going on. So any cost-effectiveness statement stays there for like 3 weeks then someone murders a price 60% or something. So "frontier lab" has to be about capability, damn the cost, just like it's been for the entirety of the LLM thing, frankly. Some things folks are willing to bust 50 million bucks (50 billion bucks, etc) on.

New comment by curuinor in "Georgia bet big on EV manufacturing. Trump pulled the plug"

curuinor — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 17:32:39 +0000

If someone tells you up, down and sideways that they follow an idealpolitik view of the world, they really are usually doing realpolitik. If someone tells you up, down and sideways that they follow a realpolitik view of the world, they usually are up in idealpolitik up to their eyeballs. So no realpolitik was happening today

New comment by curuinor in "Norway's $2T sovereign fund proposes deep cuts to US Treasury holdings"

curuinor — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:58:49 +0000

All sovereign bond demand will decrease generally, because of the failure of defined benefit pensions everywhere. Basically nobody new with any sense in the private sector does them, they're being phased out in the public sector, and this is a global phenomenon because of the general poor agent-principal problems and extreme expense now that we see a generation with the damn things and all that. Who the hell buys a 30-year treasury? Pensions do, frankly. Still holds for other sovereign debt everywhere. Norway's sovereign fund has elements of pension-nature to it but it's not a pension, it's a giant pile of stuff.

New comment by curuinor in "AI wealth is creating a 'mansion shortage' upending San Francisco housing market"

curuinor — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 03:21:08 +0000

You pay $2 million to some ambitious someone and you get a serious chance (1-3%, still counts as a serious chance) to have some ostensible societal benefit. Get a factory made or some software written or something else done. You pay $2 million to the landholder, you get literally nothing done for society. Even the housebuilders have their businesses basically destroyed by default by the gigantic parasite leech of land sucking on every sale they make. That's Henry George's complaint, right there.