Hacker News: d4ng

New comment by d4ng in "Iran war drains US oil stocks to lowest level since 2004"

d4ng — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 22:29:11 +0000

So what do you think the true reason is that the market is so backwardated? (another genuine question)

New comment by d4ng in "Iran war drains US oil stocks to lowest level since 2004"

d4ng — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:49:04 +0000

Oil prices are indeed determined by the expected future cost, including expected future reserves, and not only current reserves. Futures expiries extend quite far. Where does your short term reserves claim come from? Genuinely interested.

Regarding 118, this is about probability. Given we're at 96 and backwardated? What is the probability that we hit 150?

New comment by d4ng in "Iran war drains US oil stocks to lowest level since 2004"

d4ng — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 23:35:41 +0000

Options on crude oil futures settle in the underlying (futures), which settle in the underlying (oil) at expiry of the futures contract. Futures positions can be closed without giving or taking delivery.

You give some interesting ideas to think about, however if we predict everyone shuts up shop in the future, then I don’t see near price of oil going to 150.

New comment by d4ng in "Iran war drains US oil stocks to lowest level since 2004"

d4ng — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 22:15:32 +0000

Everyone’s talking about an oil price spike if stocks are depleted, but the heavy backwardation of crude oil futures tells a completely different story. Who is right? Are crude oil traders, who I’m sure know exactly how much remains in reserve, on Chinese fentanyl, or is something else going on?

There was a press release by Exxon a couple of days ago with claims of prices hitting 150.

People have been making similar claims for months, but it hasn’t happened. The forward curve has been backwardated for quite a while now.

Is it Exxon doing a please buy our oil while it’s high, or is something else going on? Pray tell.

New comment by d4ng in "Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence"

d4ng — Wed, 27 May 2026 17:59:45 +0000

Purpose and meaning are ultimately subjective.

New comment by d4ng in "Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence"

d4ng — Tue, 26 May 2026 18:43:23 +0000

This is very naive. Many people have incentives to manipulate the financial markets, also with real world consequences. Should we ban financial markets as a result?

Do you really think that there are no people, who have bet on the price of something in one direction or the other, who enact real world consequences on people or other entities in order to ensure their bet? This is par for the course.

New comment by d4ng in "Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets"

d4ng — Tue, 19 May 2026 22:53:06 +0000

Why must things have a purpose? If something has a purpose, can it be an objective purpose?

New comment by d4ng in "AI should elevate your thinking, not replace it"

d4ng — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 18:54:18 +0000

Previously everyone was running. Now everyone is on a bicycle. The power each person expends remains approximately the same. The people still running are left behind. The first person to get home after work from running is now the first person to get home after work from cycling.

New comment by d4ng in "Stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy"

d4ng — Sat, 25 Apr 2026 20:54:32 +0000

The current price reflects the discounted pricing of future events, the effects of those events, and the probabilities of those events. When certain events occur, and other previously predicted and priced in events become impossible, the market necessarily adjusts.