Hacker News: ddp26

New comment by ddp26 in "The AI Superforecasters Are Here"

ddp26 — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 20:19:52 +0000

But Scott's point is more: why even have markets? Once you have the superforecasting available on the questions you care about, why do you need to publish it for everyone to also react to?

New comment by ddp26 in "The AI Superforecasters Are Here"

ddp26 — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 18:42:13 +0000

Almost by definition, once AI forecasters are in the market, they won't (all) be beating the market.

But why evaluate AI forecasters by beating the market? Do we evaluate deep learning by whether hedge funds make money from it in the markets? These things have far, far more utility outside of finance.

New comment by ddp26 in "The AI Superforecasters Are Here"

ddp26 — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 18:41:08 +0000

Doesn't this argument prove too much? Why does AlphaSense sell their company research instead of using it to trade themselves? Why do people work on open source time series forecasting packages instead of quietly using them to trade?

New comment by ddp26 in "The AI Superforecasters Are Here"

ddp26 — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 13:45:37 +0000

Indeed they are! It's funny, in Sept 2024 I and others wrote about how the AI Superforecasters _weren't_ here, despite several claims that they were: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGkRcHqatmPkvpGLq/contra-pap...

New comment by ddp26 in "Podman v6.0.0"

ddp26 — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 22:27:50 +0000

Yeah, a great developer I know showed me how he could use it to get a safe dev container for Claude Code, in a way that wasn't doable with Docker.

Porting the Moebius 0.2B image model to run in Claude Code on web

ddp26 — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:19:27 +0000

Article URL: https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jun/22/porting-moebius/

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48762040

Points: 1

# Comments: 0

The Wealth of the Richest People in AI

ddp26 — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 16:00:57 +0000

Article URL: https://futuresearch.ai/ai-researcher-net-worth/

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48749009

Points: 4

# Comments: 0

New comment by ddp26 in "Previewing GPT‑5.6 Sol: a next-generation model"

ddp26 — Fri, 26 Jun 2026 21:19:21 +0000

Fair point.

New comment by ddp26 in "Previewing GPT‑5.6 Sol: a next-generation model"

ddp26 — Fri, 26 Jun 2026 21:19:08 +0000

Is this the trend? There have been various points where one of Anthropic or OpenAI was substantially ahead. Sure, many times they're close, but now doesn't seem like one of them.

New comment by ddp26 in "Previewing GPT‑5.6 Sol: a next-generation model"

ddp26 — Fri, 26 Jun 2026 21:18:15 +0000

Based on my conjecture that Anthropic is ahead on AI research, and that OpenAI doesn't know how to make Fable-class models.

New comment by ddp26 in "Previewing GPT‑5.6 Sol: a next-generation model"

ddp26 — Fri, 26 Jun 2026 17:14:06 +0000

I'm going to pre-register my prediction that GPT-5.6 Sol is significantly behind Claude Fable 5, as evaluated by general consensus once time has passed for people to get familiar with both.

New comment by ddp26 in "World-Modeling the US vs. Anthropic on Claude Fable"

ddp26 — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 17:13:02 +0000

If it's helpful, I'm still holding at July 9 as my median date that Fable gets re-released to Americans, the news of the last 24 hours didn't update the model meaningfully.

New comment by ddp26 in "Mark Zuckerberg directed Meta to create a prediction markets app"

ddp26 — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 14:42:51 +0000

People forget that Meta already did this years ago, before prediction markets became the next big consumer trend for them to chase.

The app was called Forecast, and launched in June 2020. (Around the same time that Kalshi and Polymarket launched, actually!) It was framed as a way to make the comments and activity on Facebook actually productive rather than toxic, and build expert reputation signaling mechanisms.

I think they sunset it after about a year.

World-Modeling the US vs. Anthropic on Claude Fable

ddp26 — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 14:37:56 +0000

Article URL: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zhRe3tdBpsZbGCdDK/world-modeling-the-us-vs-anthropic-standoff-on-claude-fable

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48660665

Points: 9

# Comments: 1

New comment by ddp26 in "Norway imposes near ban on AI in elementary school"

ddp26 — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 22:41:11 +0000

You mean chatgpt style AI won't help them with those skills?

If a human parent or teacher can help with skills like reading, an AI system can too, once it's trained and designed to do so. (How good are humans at teaching reading anyway?)