Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43656675

Points: 1

# Comments: 0

It's like asking a tire manufacturer to give you a car for free.

> The published version of a proof is always condensed. And even if you take all the math that has been published in the history of mankind, it’s still small compared to what these models are trained on.

> And people only publish the success stories. The data that are really precious are from when someone tries something, and it doesn’t quite work, but they know how to fix it. But they only publish the successful thing, not the process.

- Terence Tao (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ai-will-become-ma...)

Personally, I think failures on their own are valuable. Others can come in and branch off from a decision you made that instead leads to success. Maybe the idea can be applied to a different domain. Maybe your failure clarified something for someone.

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42367356

Points: 13

# Comments: 4

That's not how it works. You need to pump money into fabs to get them working, and Intel doesn't have money. If AMD had fabs to light up their money, they would also have a much lower valuation.

The market is completely irrational on AMD. Their 52-week high is ~225$ and 52-week low is ~90$. 225$ was hit when AMD was guiding ~3.5B in datacenter GPU revenue. Now, they're guiding to end the year at 5B+ datacenter GPU revenue, but the stock is ~140$?

I think it's because of how early Nvidia announced Blackwell (it isn't any meaningful volume yet), and the market thinks AMD needs to compete with GB200 while they're actually competing with H200 this quarter. And for whatever reason the market thinks that AMD will get zero AI growth next year? I don't know how to explain the stock price.

Anyway, they hit record quarterly revenue this Q3 and are guiding to beat this record by ~1B next quarter. Price might move a lot based on how AMD guides for Q1 2025.

No, not its not even close. AMD is miles ahead.

This is a Phoronix review for Turin (current generation): https://www.phoronix.com/review/amd-epyc-9965-9755-benchmark...

You can similarly search for phoronix reviews for the Genoa, Bergamo, and Milan generations (the last two generations).

Anyway, I don't understand what you want from me or are arguing about. They were trying to win the datacenter CPU market and not the GPU market. They did well at that. They've recently started trying to win the GPU market as well, cause now they can afford to. They seem to be doing well now.

Clearly there are workloads AMD wins at, and just going Nvidia by default for everything without considering AMD is suboptimal.

For datacenter GPUs, they're going from ~500M-750M in 2023 full year (can't find proper numbers), to 4.5B+ full year 2024. In GPUs, it's almost like they're entering a new market.

The current Instinct line of products is relatively new too, I found this article [1] on the MI100 launch on Nov, 2020. That's basically start of 2021.

To go from MI100 in 2021, to 4.5B+ of MI300X + MI250X in 2024 is great. They are doing just fine.

On MI355X, I can't find endnotes for the slides they show, but it is not clear if the 9.2PF of FP6 and FP4 is sparse or not (all the other numbers on that slide were non-sparse). If it isn't they're exceeding GB200's sparse FP6/4 numbers with non-sparse flops (!). They both have the same memory bandwidth though. AMD is doing just fine.

[1] https://www.servethehome.com/amd-radeon-instinct-mi100-32gb-...

Also, there is a Dockerfile.rocm at the root of vLLM's repo. How is it a pain?