Hacker News: dogmayor

New comment by dogmayor in "Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets"

dogmayor — Sat, 07 Mar 2026 23:05:09 +0000

Prediction markets and crypto will continue to ride the wave while this administration is in office. But I expect prediction markets will come to be thought of as slimy gambling dens ridden with fraud no different than crypto. The cancerous "greed is good/gamble on everything" attitude prevalent today in America will come crashing down at some point. When? Who knows. The sooner the better.

But for now, make sure you get in your bets er i mean predictions on this mega important market: "Elon Musk # tweets March 3 - March 10, 2026?"[1]

[1] https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-march-3-mar...

New comment by dogmayor in "AI optimism is a class privilege"

dogmayor — Mon, 16 Feb 2026 22:06:48 +0000

Important sentences immediately before the ones you quote.

> For our evaluation, we inserted names to signal race / gender while keeping the resume unchanged. Interestingly, the LLMs were not biased in the original evaluation setting, but became biased (up to 12% differences in interview rates) when we added realistic details like company names (Meta, Palantir, General Motors), locations, or culture descriptions from public careers pages.

New comment by dogmayor in "The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets"

dogmayor — Mon, 19 Jan 2026 20:38:55 +0000

Untrue. Insiders are incentivized to trade when they can buy at the lowest price. That could be at any point up to the event.

New comment by dogmayor in "Apple picks Gemini to power Siri"

dogmayor — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:32:51 +0000

How soon does elon sue them for not choosing xai? He's gonna cry some nonsense about antitrust just like he did last year when apple partnered with openai for apple intelligence opt-in.

New comment by dogmayor in "Golfing Is Not Rowing"

dogmayor — Mon, 29 Dec 2025 20:55:36 +0000

Good decision-making is critical to golf. If you're interested in furthering your development, I highly recommend Decade[1]. Great resource.

[1] https://decade.golf

New comment by dogmayor in "We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months"

dogmayor — Thu, 04 Dec 2025 23:34:27 +0000

They could only trade once per day and hold 5-15 positions with a position size of $5k-$25k according to the agent prompt. Limited to say the least.

New comment by dogmayor in "Silicon Valley's man in the White House is benefiting himself and his friends"

dogmayor — Sun, 30 Nov 2025 20:07:11 +0000

Yeah the "everyone does it" crowd is ridiculous. Like there are degrees to this.

New comment by dogmayor in "Silicon Valley's man in the White House is benefiting himself and his friends"

dogmayor — Sun, 30 Nov 2025 13:33:18 +0000

Most corrupt administration in American history by far. Sadly, not at all surprising. Many people are somehow ok with this cesspool and it is sickening.

New comment by dogmayor in "The Rapper 50 Cent, Adjusted for Inflation"

dogmayor — Sat, 18 Oct 2025 12:17:15 +0000

Short-term deflation can be beneficial for some, but sustained deflation leads to a downward spiral that harms all. A lower cost of goods is great until it causes reduced aggregate investment and demand, which in turn can lead to wage reductions and layoffs. It's also harder to navigate out of a deflationary environment. Deflation isn't desirable in the long run.

New comment by dogmayor in "Don't watermark your legal PDFs with purple dragons in suits"

dogmayor — Fri, 02 May 2025 20:32:17 +0000

This isn't a PI case and she couldn't "easily" get someone else for free. Maybe you're thinking she could get an attorney to take the case on a contingency basis, but that's not "free."

New comment by dogmayor in "I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs"

dogmayor — Fri, 28 Mar 2025 11:46:30 +0000

Law firms don't create their own repos of case law. They use a database like westlaw or lexis. LLMs "preparing briefs with sources" would be a disaster and wholly misunderstands what legal writing entails.

New comment by dogmayor in "A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress"

dogmayor — Mon, 10 Mar 2025 22:46:58 +0000

I think about this a lot when it comes to self-driving cars. Unless a manufacturer assumes liability, why would anyone purchase one and subject themselves to potential liability for something they by definition did not do? This issue will be a big sticking point for adoption.

New comment by dogmayor in "My PhD advisor rewrote himself in bash (2010)"

dogmayor — Sat, 14 Dec 2024 02:10:19 +0000

> I also disagree about the "beholder words"; to me "it was surprisingly low" means "I am drawing your attention to the fact that the low value surprised me" rather than "you need to be surprised by the low value".

I agree with your interpretation, but here the issue is that "beholder words" don't give the reader the information necessary for them to make their own judgment. Readers are left thinking "ok, but how low is 'surprisingly low?'" Writers should tell the reader the exact number, saying "surprisingly" communicates nothing because it's relative.

New comment by dogmayor in "The death and life of prediction markets at Google"

dogmayor — Thu, 14 Nov 2024 18:06:27 +0000

They're not banning themselves. There's no market for them. A market will arise based on the market size, product characteristics, etc. Without anyone willing to make markets and trade strawberries, there's no futures market for them. All that to say, there's no need for a law banning something if there's no willing market for it. There was an onions futures market and that's why the law is specific to onions.

New comment by dogmayor in "Covering the Supreme Court and the Judiciary in (Mostly) Plain English"

dogmayor — Wed, 13 Nov 2024 20:49:03 +0000

I'd agree with this. Kagan is the best overall, Roberts is up there when he wants to be and isn't forcing it, and yes Thomas writes fairly well but what he writes is abysmal.

Alito is hands down the worst writer and one of the worst to ever sit on the court. He's not the brightest but thinks he's a savant and writes with a smugness and conceit that drips off the page on top of being as disingenuous as they come. Reading anything he writes is torture.

New comment by dogmayor in "The death and life of prediction markets at Google"

dogmayor — Mon, 11 Nov 2024 23:29:53 +0000

Lol frozen concentrate

New comment by dogmayor in "The death and life of prediction markets at Google"

dogmayor — Mon, 11 Nov 2024 21:26:11 +0000

It has more to do with the nature of the product – can it be reasonably stored in bulk for length without eroding in quality. This goes for anything physically settled. Look at the agricultural products traded at the CME and you'll see there aren't any markets for perishable products like strawberries.

New comment by dogmayor in "Why so few Matt Levines?"

dogmayor — Tue, 29 Oct 2024 13:48:32 +0000

Levine is a uniquely good writer. And, as mentioned, his choice of subject matter (law + finance) is a major factor. Both are such broad fields that you can always find something interesting happening in one corner or another, and both are relevant to everyone no matter the field they're in personally.

As someone who has a similar background to Levine, I'm a big fan and can say it's uncommon to find someone like him who can write effectively and with levity.

New comment by dogmayor in "A return to hand-written notes by learning to read and write"

dogmayor — Tue, 29 Oct 2024 13:04:36 +0000

I still prefer using ballpoints with schmidt easyflow 9000 ink[1], but yeah rollerballs (gel) are a great midpoint between fountains and ballpoints. My Zebra G-750[2] is super smooth.

[1] https://www.jetpens.com/Schmidt-EasyFlow-9000-Hybrid-Ballpoi...

[2] https://www.jetpens.com/Zebra-G-750-Gel-Pen-0.7-mm-Black-Ink...

New comment by dogmayor in "Federal investigators probe Tether"

dogmayor — Sat, 26 Oct 2024 00:04:58 +0000

Again, that's not how it works. They wouldn't know if they're being investigated unless the USAO told them. And if the USAO had told them they're a target of an investigation then they'd say that instead of this garbage quote. Hell they may even be working with the sdny on some investigations, but in no way does that mean they would know if they themselves are the subject of another investigation. In other words, unless Tether is somehow working with the investigators on an investigation into Tether, Tether wouldn't know they're being investigated.