I still enjoy writing code by hand, but it's incredibly lonely here. No one at work talks about code details anymore. I'm basically by myself now.

I'm a bit of a holdout, but I can tell you that what used to be lively discussions about architecture are now just "ask Claude" responses. No one else wants to think through their code anymore.

There is value in doing things no one else likes to do. But only if this path delivers results in the long term. It's not certain that my path does that but if this field is truly collapsing I'd rather give it a shot with my brain intact rather than doing nothing.

Computer parts are unaffordable this year.

You realize that they don't want that, correct?

Meanwhile, the AI labs are doing that for just marketing.

In many ways, the teleporting machine that teleports to the solution is against the point of the questions. No one wants the solution to be "Run $10,000,000 worth of tokens to cover all possible Lean formulations of the problem".

I think for Mathematicians, I'd say that the human level formulation is still possible and with a new perspective. We as a society (and outside of Mathematics) need to also understand that this AI teleport to the answer thing has less value than we all expected. The value is in the journey.

The open question is if people will still want to take the journey if the teleport machine exists. Or if the existence of the teleport machine halts exploration.

Do we even have one bankruptcy yet?

I'm keeping an eye on Coreweave and Oracle. But they haven't collapsed yet, not as of today anyway.

If it's anything like 2007, it's going to be the one we aren't watching that collapses first. Those in the open about their debts and situation are often more honest and solid than other unknown players. The ones who are lying the most are the ones with the worst accounting and worst books.

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So yeah, chances are that Coreweave is just this week's topic. We really don't know how close we are to a collapse until someone out there actually starts to collapse.

When the debt in 2007 sucked, it crashed the economy. But when the price was good in 2006, everyone celebrated.

Note: prices are getting worse for bonds today but nothing panic worthy yet.

I know people who bought Ask Jeeves at the height of the bubble.

Home prices themselves aren't really used, because they're based off of interest rates, land values, and many other attributes that don't really apply to CPI. Rental costs for all of their faults, are a better measurement of month-to-month or year-to-year inflation.

So you're right. They don't really include "house" prices. But they absolutely include "housing" prices.

And crane, despite being bigger, more powerful and more awesome (they lift skyscrapers and do things nothing else can do), the Forklift is actually more useful to more people.

I think the argument carries solid weight. Making bigger and better things doesn't necessarily lead to bigger and better businesses.

But in any case, Britannica is a good source so I stand corrected on this subject.

Someone who actually works with real animals (farmers? Ranchers??) would come up with better examples. But I'm just city boy over here who only meets cats and dogs on a regular basis.

AIM and ICQ were the big ones back in the day, nothing ever was as big as that.

My 90s and early 00s social circle was AIM, Yahoo Games, and Neopets.

And yet they kept making more of them. They made it obvious at the end when all the Greek Gods were dead and the Greek world was basically destroyed by the actions of Kratos. Plenty of deaths of innocent's here.

So the first people who'd be overly trusting of things they don't understand would be exactly a CEO.

Trump is extremely easy to manipulate. Tell Trump that his legacy will be great and he will listen to you over all of his advisors (NSA, CIA, etc. etc.). The intelligence agencies are useless because the narcissist only cares about himself.

It's been the same thing with every foreign affairs issue for over a decade now. Trump just agrees with the people who butter him up.

It's not whataboutism, unless somehow Pearl Harbor is whataboutism to Nuking Hiroshima. Sometimes things have direct cause and effect, even if it's inconvenient to your argument.