Controversial hot take, I know.

On here and else where there are people who see AI for what it is and are absolutely blown away by it and defend these people without realizing that they are regularly promising something much more to investors that can never be fulfilled. The idea that LLMs can ever reach any sense of true AGI is delusional.

Many demos have been proven to be faked or cherry picked to provide a scenario where the AI would succeed under those very specific prompts but any deviations would fail. Just do a search, Google, OpenAI, and many other have faked or exaggerated features and capabilities.

I can tell you investors think from the demos, some of which have been proven to be faked, that this leads to gen AI that can do anything, completely autonomously. That it will be able to do what it can do for basic coding and writing press releases for literally everything. And it can't and it wont. And what it can do it does very expensively. Look at driver less cars. One of the first big problems we have tried to solve with LLMs and machine learning and we still can't reliably trust cars to drive themselves without doing a lot of upfront work for a specific city. Don't get me wrong where we are with driver assists and robo taxis is incredible, but the investment has been far greater than the return and may always be. And once investors understand that fully. Once they realize that the technology IS incredible, but the economics will almost never work out. They are gone. Once they are gone Open AI, Anthropic, with their multi-billion dollar burn rate quickly need to cut costs and / or find a buyer. The only buyers who can afford it and run them will be Google, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft and they too will be looking to reduce costs and exposure when the bubble bursts, so they will focus on efficiency of models even at the cost of function and features.

I don't know Trevor Milton. I have never met him. Maybe he isn't a compulsive liar but just got in over his head and was trying to make it work. But I know I would never invest in something he is doing.

Maybe we aren’t there yet. The Model 3 and Y are probably still too expensive without incentives.

I think what surprises everyone is that Apple beat all of the low cost PC manufacturers at their own game. And they did it through scale, superior software memory management, and world class chip design.

I don’t know if the Neo will be a success, but it is a great product at a great price.

I think what surprises everyone is that Apple beat all of the low cost PC manufacturers at their own game. And they did it through scale, superior software memory management, and world class chip design.

I don’t know if the Neo will be a success. Chromebooks have entrenched themselves in Education. But for end users this is a no brainer in this price range. If you are looking for a computer in the ~$500 range you would be almost foolish to buy anything else unless your specific needs demanded it.

This reminds me a bit of that. AI writing is—in many ways—objectively very good, but that doesn’t matter if no one thinks you wrote it. AI writing is boring exactly because it is consistent and like any art form people want to see something original.