1. Cyber - already discussed - has an issue that the bigger models can actually do a full end-to-end exploration of an exploit - go from theory to an actual deployable payload.

2. CAD/CAM/Mechanics - CalculiX (ccx) - an open-source FEA and similar mechanical solver - think Siemens or ANSYS, but open-source. A team I was helping was trying to do a design mount of a physical object that would need to reduce vibrations in a frequency band - think microphone mount basically. Usual loop would be design, analyze with Siemens, go to beginning. AI loop is have AI design, then analyze using ANSYS, then analyze result, change design, iterate. That loop did not produce anything useful for elastic materials because ANSYS would take 12 hrs to do acoustic analysis using a GPU. 1 week of autonomous work by a frontier model resulted in a modification and custom solver added to ccx that could simulate the acoustics (vibrations) _in that particular problem_ in about 20 seconds - mainly because it could try new mathematical ideas, then compare them against ANSYS reference for quality of solution, and iterate. And 1 week _after that_ the frontier model - iterating on one design per minute - came up with multiple 3-d printable ground-breaking mounts - including sending one off to xeometry for printing and getting it shipped back. Existing designs had a 20 db drop in the frequency ranges needed - this one had 60. For reference 40 DB is basically infinity :) While this was for microphones - you can imagine that vibration reduction is a big thing in engine, suspension, and weapon mounting, and well, in general things that move. 3 person team btw - unthinkable even 1 year ago.

3. Pharma. Different company - but given a known Density Function Theory or Kappa Cluster molecule simulator, one can run nice agentic loops over frontier models to do chemical or pharmaceutical research - there’s a reason Anthropic is launching Claude Chemistry. Note that then limiting factor is the multi-week runtime of Kappa Cluster and similarly molecular dynamics simulators. If one _could_ speed that up for a particular problem space or molecule type, one could very very quickly have a high-end reasoning model iterate to a good molecular design - and frontier models are getting very good at precisely automating the ML research needed to do that autonomously - after all, there’s a reference there. 5 ppl - 2 years ago would be a research institute.

4. Physical AI - robotics - same principle.

5. This is basically the bet Bezos is doing with his new company.

Please do not underestimate the effect these models will have on our ability to improve our ability to effect the world - this is just starting to hit now. I think we can all extrapolate the GDP and defense impact of this - or at least that there will be a very significant one.

I can't shake the feeling of a grand fleecing incoming - and honestly, most big financial companies I know are against it because the blowback of inevitably bankrupting the firefighters&nurses pension fund will be congressional hearings and piercings of corporate veils.

Seems like the feds are pushing for it - for reasons I cannot fathom.

Quite safe, and already a force multiplier - this would be a harness. Maybe have it be able to write to a shadow system with similar (ideally same) hardware to verify it's hypothesis on how the system works, etc...

So, to your point - yep, it is not final. But it is unattractive _to the market making and prime brokers and similar players_ which the regulators do not care much about.

In general, safe businesses can only exist with government support or government prohibition of all other businesses globally - and that is a very hard bar to clear.

From what I have seen - most executives would rather shut down the business and quit than accept the possibility of personal liability - and just avoid the regions of the world in which they do have it.

For big corps - this is different. But modulo hipaa - this is why they are gung ho hi about binding arbitration - they are trying to match velocity to some degree - and mostly failing…

I personally think AI will end up sitting in the top 3 of these - but that is an opinion. I do think it is obvious it is at least _somewhere_ in that list.

Very few people want the financial system to be a contractual suicide pact - they want it to be predictable, but when the unpredictable happens - they want the retail and institutional investor to be protected (the HFT players can go beat each other up - no one will really cry about them). And unpredictable can be anything from a power event taking out multiple exchanges in the NJ triangle (Sandy hurricane) to a cyber-attack (never happened yet) to a flash-crash driven by algorithms from multiple HFT driving each other nuts (happened at least once).

So, it is not EOD processes as such, but the ability to pause, assess the entire system holistically, and then correct it before it blows up the portfolios of everyone holding a 401k. So even though the exchanges _could_ got to 24/7 trading, I'd be surprised if we just went away from cyclical 24-hr based windows of settlement.

This is very different that AWS fed-gov bedrock thingie - where AWS promises that the models are running on hardware dedicated to you, with no external logging, etc.

So, for agentic workflows - ones where the model gets feedback from tools, etc…, fast enough is important.