These kind of generalizations for average citizens are so dangerous. Today you are racists again Jewish group, tomorrow someone will do the same to other races.

The foreign government is not related to your average citizens regardless of the race in principle.

What's the actual TAM for premium tv subscriptions though? Unlike free models which are keep improving, you can't get premium tv for free. Also they are actually competing with the total subscription price a person is willing to pay for a year.

> There’s only two things useful to the average person something to help them translate and something to help them write in everyday life.

Exactly, free models are good enough for these tasks.

I just don't see how b2c is a large enough market to ask average Joe to cough up hundreds per year when there are free stuff everywhere. B2b is another story

- Growth rate: you can't compare them to the average single digit growth companies or dividend focused companies. Most of these tech companies revenue are still growing at double digit with good moat. Pe is a good measure but it's not absolute. If you believe they sustain their growth then it's a good bet. And you can choose not to buy in their growth stories too. At the end of the day investment is about judgement call

- History benchmark: some of their pe is at historical low. So they are actually cheaper than before.

- Pe ttm and forward pe: how much pe ttm are they at? how much forward pe are they projecting? If forward pe is significantly lower, that means the current analysts consensus is that they will grow in future

- Pe is the a number but it's not everything. You need to consider multiple things to decide if that's undervalued for you. It's highly subjective as different interpretations are common.

- This post is about if you want to play the gaap game with private tech companies. My point is that there are still many public companies that are cheap at certain point. You just need to be patient and be willing to research and wait. For example, meta at around 500 was a buy for me, but since then it has rebounded it's still good but not as undervalued as a few days ago

You can just choose not to play the accounting game, and only choose the ones that actually gaap viable as investment opportunities. For example mag7 - tesla are all relatively cheap when they dip.

Some times the best play is just not to play. If you think they are too risky, walk away. There are enough good oppotunities

I can see they want to do it as they are currently demand constrained.

But we cannot just dispute this basic economic model and thinking that 0 or negative inflation (which would cause the stop of investment), or no consensus(that would just cause more chaos) is better. That's just absurd

Take ozempic as an example. The word is already part of the culture, but the company is losing badly to lly. Novo nordisk is projecting revenue DECLINE while eli lilly is still growing massively. I am not even sure people know other glp1 drugs other than ozempic. I don't even remember lilly drugs name.

I think people should not underestimate the market. It's a dynamic game where engineering intuition might not be enough

You need to install linux and actively debugging it. For ai, regular people can just easily switch around by opening an browser. There are many low or 0 barrir choices. Do you know windows 11 is mostly free too for b2c customers now? Nobody is paying for anything

> "Regular People" know ChatGPT. They know Gemini (largely because google shoves it in their face). They don't know anything else (maybe Siri, because they don't know the difference, just that siri now sucks). I'm not sure if I would count <0.1% of tokens generated being "flooding the market".

You just proved my point. Yes they are good, but why would people pay for it? Google earns money through ads mostly.

> Just like you don't give much thought to the breed of grass growing in your yard, they don't give much thought to the AI provider they are using. They pay, it does what they want, that's the end of it. These are general consumers, not chronically online tech nerds.

That's exactly the points, because most of the internet services are free. Nobody is paying for anything because they are ads supported

In the world where you cheap open weight models and free tier closed sources models are flooding the market, you need very good reason to convince regular people to pay for just certain models en masse in b2c market