Hacker News: goalonetwo

New comment by goalonetwo in "GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house"

goalonetwo — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 23:29:46 +0000

yes, the long tail of difficult event is exponentially more difficult to handle. That's why I said above that people "feel" it is ready but it is nowhere to be even close to ready.

The average crash rate for human is one every 500k miles.

New comment by goalonetwo in "GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house"

goalonetwo — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 23:28:04 +0000

If you drove with a very very bad driver that crashes every 50k miles (average is every 500k miles), you would have exactly the same feeling and you would also be tempted to take a nap.

New comment by goalonetwo in "GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house"

goalonetwo — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 23:26:31 +0000

100 Miles literally don't matter. Even 1000. On average accidents happens every 500k miles.

Are you ready to have your tesla drive FSD with you sleeping in it for 500k? You are letting your feeling dictate that FSD is ready. The math is more complicated.

New comment by goalonetwo in "Ask HN: SWEs how do you future-proof your career in light of LLMs?"

goalonetwo — Mon, 16 Dec 2024 23:21:12 +0000

100% and even if they might not "replace" a senior or staff SWE, they can make their job significantly easier which means that instead of requiring 5 Senior or Staff you will only need two.

LLM WILL change the job market dynamics in the coming years. Engineers have been vastly overpaid over the last 10 years. There is no reason to not see a reversal to the mean here. Getting a 500k offer from a FAANG because you studied leetcode for a couple weeks is not going to fly anymore.

New comment by goalonetwo in "GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house"

goalonetwo — Wed, 11 Dec 2024 19:06:26 +0000

This i what is so tricky with Self Driving. People "feel" it is almost there because most of their rides are mostly ok. However to make a system truly driverless you need to master the long tails of difficult events and FSD is nowhere even close to do that.

Going from 99.9% to 99.99999% is what makes a system truly driverless and where most of the work is. Waymo is way way ahead of FSD for this.

New comment by goalonetwo in "GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house"

goalonetwo — Wed, 11 Dec 2024 19:04:16 +0000

I worked in this industry. No, FSD is not almost there. Not even close. What matters is the long tails of events.

You might "feel" it is almost there because it gets it right 99.9% of the time but that is still way too many accidents and injuries in the long run. And the work to go from 99.9% to 99.9999% is 1000x more complicated.

New comment by goalonetwo in "This elephant learned to use a hose as a shower. Then her rival sought revenge"

goalonetwo — Fri, 15 Nov 2024 07:37:59 +0000

Weird jumping to conclusion How do we know this is to seek revenge, and not just a way for the other elephant to attempt to get some water as well?

New comment by goalonetwo in "I quit Google to work for myself (2018)"

goalonetwo — Sat, 09 Nov 2024 04:03:42 +0000

exactly this. Working with a couple ex-google and ex-facebook. Without failing every meeting we hear at least once "At Google/Facebook we used to ..." for something that is completely not applicable here.

New comment by goalonetwo in "I quit Google to work for myself (2018)"

goalonetwo — Fri, 08 Nov 2024 22:55:24 +0000

Ah, another one of those infamous 2018 blog posts on "why I quit Google".

And those blog posts absolutely always start by telling you that the engineers at Google are the smartest in the world. Oh boy are those people indoctrinated.

New comment by goalonetwo in "How to delete your 23andMe data amid the company's turmoil"

goalonetwo — Tue, 08 Oct 2024 23:16:51 +0000

Large companies fail in spectacular ways all the time. Google is super successful because they tapped into the biggest cash cow of all times. Not because the employees are somehow very capable and above any oversight.

New comment by goalonetwo in "How to delete your 23andMe data amid the company's turmoil"

goalonetwo — Tue, 08 Oct 2024 19:21:34 +0000

Good luck proving that your data was not deleted.

GDPR and CCPA etc made it easy to send a request for deletion that will most probably be a frontend gimmick. How much effort are they really going to put into going back in their backups and deleting all your entries? I'm pretty sure it must be the lowest roadmap priorities.

New comment by goalonetwo in "How to delete your 23andMe data amid the company's turmoil"

goalonetwo — Tue, 08 Oct 2024 19:14:56 +0000

Exactly this. Especially for a currently failing company that got an incentive to NOT delete your data (because that's the only value they still have).

New comment by goalonetwo in "Smart TVs are like "a digital Trojan Horse" in people's homes"

goalonetwo — Tue, 08 Oct 2024 00:43:50 +0000

common advice is to never connect your smart TV to the network. Only use the HDMI inputs.

New comment by goalonetwo in "Russ Cox is stepping down as the Go tech lead"

goalonetwo — Thu, 01 Aug 2024 21:29:07 +0000

I would rather say that it is easy to have zero drama when most of the committers come from a single large companies.

New comment by goalonetwo in "California DMV puts 42M car titles on blockchain to fight fraud"

goalonetwo — Tue, 30 Jul 2024 18:01:34 +0000

Ah yes Deloitte. Always there to sell the latest hype technology.

New comment by goalonetwo in "California DMV puts 42M car titles on blockchain to fight fraud"

goalonetwo — Tue, 30 Jul 2024 17:59:50 +0000

you only need that if you have multiple adversarial parties that all want to commit to a shared immutable history.

This is a use case with a single source of truth (the DMV). So again, why do we need a blockchain?

New comment by goalonetwo in "California DMV puts 42M car titles on blockchain to fight fraud"

goalonetwo — Tue, 30 Jul 2024 17:58:30 +0000

lol

New comment by goalonetwo in "California DMV puts 42M car titles on blockchain to fight fraud"

goalonetwo — Tue, 30 Jul 2024 16:09:05 +0000

So no different than a database. Why did this need to be a blockchain. The information comes from a centralized database anyways

New comment by goalonetwo in "Every company should be owned by its employees"

goalonetwo — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 18:45:09 +0000

Even with all those points, you would in most cases end up with more assets renting something equivalent and dumping your down payment and mortgage in the SP500.

Again, the main advantage of a mortgage is that it forces you to save. If you are disciplined enough to save and invest in the SP500, you are way better off doing that.

New comment by goalonetwo in "Every company should be owned by its employees"

goalonetwo — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 17:34:21 +0000

Homes should not be an investment.

And Homes are also generally a bad investment even though there is a whole lobby of people that try to convince you that you need to buy at any price.

The only reason why homes have been a good "investment" for most people is that it is a forced saving through your mortgage, which most people would have spent stupidly otherwise.

But we should normalize renting and investing in actual investments like the SP500. Everyone would be better off and you would end up with more assets.