Besides, I refuse to accept that we are now meant to police ourselves and our use of language because AI copies it. Write the way you write, it will be apparent in your text (as it is for the author), and we'll deal with the unfortunate few cases in which a false-positive signal (like 'genuinely' in this title) the correct way: completely ignoring it

The problem is that art-making-as-a-job is doomed; so are, in the long run, many other 'knowledge worker' jobs, although we can't for certain tell which ones are going to be replaced fully by AI first.

So the hardest problem is not the one relative to creative activity (for pleasure, self-expression, or catharsis), but economic activity. In your words, "Capitalism doesn't work anymore". We can discuss to what point whatever replaces our previous system will still be 'capitalism', but it is apparent that - if it works - it will be very different in many of the aspects we take for granted.

My personal (and likely naive) opinion is that a large part of the political discourse will shift towards trying to define what is -necessary- vs what is -luxury-, as the rewritten order will shift to ensure that all people receive all that is "necessary" and work (whatever it looks like) will be for "luxuries". I don't like it, but I guess that this will be ultimately the question dividing "left" from "right" for a large chunk of this century.

Who are the 1/3 of the population that does not reason by analogy?

> “Do you know how hard you need to abuse a mammal to make them not have children?” If you asked Leahy what the explanation was, “my answer is technology,” he said. “My answer is social media. My answer is AI.”

My answer may include that, especially for richer countries, but also includes, and at a mucher higher placing for all countries:

    * reduced child mortality risk, family planning
    * urbanization; reduction of child-as-farmhand-labor incentives
    * increasing distance to parent support networks, the disaggregation of clan/extended family households
    * economic uncertainty

Sorry, don't mean to be rude, but your story doesn't track for many reasons. First, PIX keys are associated to formal bank accounts. If what you described happend, that account was blocked by the bank likely within the hour after the 'robbery'. And "stealing" accounts from other people in a way that allows you to withdraw cash from is exceedingly difficult and uncommon.

Furthermore, it might have been possible in early days of pix, but it's been some time now (maybe from the start? Making your story impossible) that Pix has a 'undo' feature that the sender can do on their bank app or ATM even; similar to the 'block this credit transaction' from a credit card.

> With Pix, as I understand it, nobody feels responsible for it and the money is gone.

Incorrect, see above. Are you confusing PIX for some kind of crypto transfer?

Care to elaborate and give examples?

First, I don't think they are.

Second, good - they should have an _algorithm_ checking every transaction. MasterCard and VISA do it and do nothing for me; the government could catch all the money laundering that is the lifeblood of crime, or maybe just finally eradicate tax evasion, the necessary first step towards rationalizing our tax code and one of the core issues of our country?

Your opinions read like you have misplaced worries, if not values.

"Salary portability" is ensured in Brazil by the Banco Centra, at least since 2006. Employees can receive salary in any bank account they choose, even if their employer processes payroll through a different bank.

The original bank must automatically transfer the funds to the employee’s choice of account without charging a transfer fee: https://www.bcb.gov.br/meubc/faqs/p/existe-algum-custo-para-...

And the preset doesn't matter - I thought it was a initial config that applies to any rule; it is a preset of the previous parameters instead

be patient and it 'explodes'.

Very fun!

(Edit: apparently the fuse can 'die off' but the thing still eventually explodes)

BRICS, apparently

They are necessary in practice, though. But boy do a cut here and there makes it harder for catching up to some Prolog codebase.

It really isn't. BYD is progressively becoming ubiquitous here (large South America city)

A '99% write down' is such an uncommon term that many people might not register it.

any international trades happening in non-US dollar is an "acceleration" of dedollarizatiom, given that currently all trade is dollarized.

Original:

I don't known if I understand the spirit of the question. There are no metrics or tracking of how "dollarized" the international economy is because virtually all trade is done in dollars and there has been no risk of this changing for the past ?65? years

My original prediction for 2026 (not 2025, mind you) made in 2024 was based on a few factors, if I recall correctly, 1) the Russia-Ucraine war and related sanctions; 2) the open discussion in BRICS about trade in direct currencies; and 3) the then-promised isolatonist policies of Trump's second mandate.

What we've seen in 2025 makes all of those stronger I guess.

1) I don't know the status of the Russia-Ucraine war; all I know is it is a glaring sign of the end of Pax Americana (as is the Israel-Palestine genocide/war, by the way, which the US would -not- have allowed given the strong internal opposition and negative popularity among the American public). So sanctions of Russia notwistanding, that status quo, which strongly related to dollar as reserve currency, is either agonizing or dead.

2) Trump and the US attempted a very strong response to the (first ever?) trades in local currency between Brazil and China, mostly in the form of targeted tariffs (all discourse about Bolsonaro and whatever being the motivation for tariffing Brazilian imports being, in my opinion, political smoke and mirrors). I don't think it worked. I think BRICS might press on this. If the mercosur/EU trade deal goes through it will also be a strong force towards trade in Euros/Reais/Pesos directly I believe.

3) I don't think I need to clarify; tariffs and other issues brought on by the current US government were severely negative to the placement of the US as a preferred trade partner. This is to beyond economic choice; active anti-american sentiment are at all times high in countries like Canada, Denmark, and Mexico, all historically aligned with the US. This may not seem that relevant but come election cycles in those and other countries we might see platforms/candidates that openly propose to "secede" from the US hegemony international order. If that happens, removing US military bases is a first go. Alternatives to the US "petrodollar" a close second.

I'm keeping that prediction for 2026 from a late 2024 thread:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42405149