<rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"><channel><title>Hacker News: grumple</title><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=grumple</link><description>Hacker News RSS</description><docs>https://hnrss.org/</docs><generator>hnrss v2.1.1</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 04 Apr 2026 22:34:51 +0000</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://hnrss.org/user?id=grumple" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"></atom:link><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Miscellanea: The War in Iran"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I agree with most of the sentiment in the OP with a few key disagreements. OP repeatedly says Iran is not very important (not strategically important). This is clearly not true for a few reasons:<p>1) They control the flow of oil, as we're seeing now.<p>2) They provide a huge amount of funding to hostile forces throughout the middle east - Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, pro-Iran militias in Iraq. This destabilizes the entire region, including important partners beyond Israel (Saudi Arabia, UAE). Their support for the Assad regime in Syria and Hezbollah, who killed nearly half a million Syrians during the civil war there, also created a huge refugee crisis throughout Europe that has led to a rise in far-right parties who are reacting to the failed integration of these refugees.<p>3) They provide drones to Russia and instructions for how to build those drones.<p>4) They provide oil to Russia and China, two major geopolitical adversaries.<p>5) They are among the most significant propagandists that use social media to destabilize the west - having been caught repeatedly manipulating social media platforms like Reddit, Instagram, Twitter/X.<p>There are also some strategic benefits to the current war, especially if you're a narcissistic kleptocrat running the US:<p>1) We've already seen the market manipulation.<p>2) Every bomb dropped is a bomb taxpayers must replace; that money goes right to defense contractors<p>3) Then consider the American oil companies: they stand to make a lot more money from this, as their products are now more scarce and more valuable. The US, as a net exporter of oil (we import low quality oil because we're good at refining it; we export the good stuff), will make more money.<p>4) The disruption of the Persian Gulf hurts Russia and China far more than it hurts the US and EU. There are some US allies and neutrals who get hurt (those in east Asia, gulf oil states). But it's not a balanced impact - we definitely come out on top in the current situation in my view.<p>5) Electric vehicles are starting to look a lot better. Who's Trump's bff and biggest financial backer, again? Does he operate in that space?<p>I think the overall impact of the attacks on Venezuela and Iran sum to an attack on the hostile Russia-Iran-China axis, with the benefit of hurting some of their minor allies as well. It seems too perfect that we attack the two largest non-allied oil suppliers in quick succession for it to be coincidence. It might not be Trump's plan, but it seems like a long-standing plan to achieve a favorable geopolitical environment.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 01:34:33 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47525708</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47525708</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47525708</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Most of the US economy is in a recession"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>This guy is a well known conspiracy theorist. He's a high school teacher, not a university professor as "Professor Jiang" indicates: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Xueqin" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Xueqin</a><p>Some discussion on reddit about him: <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1rnnq6p/thoughts_on_professor_jiang/" rel="nofollow">https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1rnnq6p/though...</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2026 00:45:29 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47303414</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47303414</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47303414</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Layoffs at Block"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Indeed. If you suddenly have a workforce that can be 2x as productive (or whatever multiple), why would you cut them? You already have these people under your control, direct them towards profitable ventures.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 27 Feb 2026 13:06:51 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47180084</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47180084</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47180084</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "I am happier writing code by hand"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>One of the first bugs I found - and fixed - at my current job instantly made us an extra 200k/year. One line of code (potentially a one character fix?), causing a little bug nobody noticed, which I only saw because I like to comb through application logs, and caused by a peculiarity of the data. Would an LLM have written better code? Maybe. But I've seen a lot of <i>bad</i> code churned out by LLMs, even today. I'm not saying every line matters - particular for frontend code - but sometimes individual lines of code, or even individual characters, can be tremendously important, and not be written in any spec, not tested with all possible data combinations, or documented anywhere. At a previous job, I spent several days unraveling another one-line bug that was keeping a multi-million dollar project from running at all. Again, totally non-obvious unless you had a tremendous amount of context and were running a pretty complex system to figure it out, with a sort of tenacity the LLMs don't currently possess.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 19:38:54 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46937728</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46937728</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46937728</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "The AI boom is causing shortages everywhere else"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>There's a shortage of over 500,000 tradesmen in the US right now, expected to reach a shortage of 2 million by 2030. And if you've ever tried to get somebody out for a repair: it's hard. They are expensive, and the tradesmen are often not good, and often pretty dumb, even about their own field. Add to that the regulatory gatekeeping, where it takes 5 years minimum of working under someone else to be able to work independently in some fields, and the low initial pay and poor treatment causing people to drop out... there's going to be a shortage for a long time. And even if their wasn't - the people in those fields now would be relatively easy to outcompete imo.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 12:17:28 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46933641</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46933641</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46933641</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> Something like 50% of the population of the world live under rulers who were not democratically elected. Should the US taxpayers fund all of their removals?<p>If it's in our interest, absolutely. Venezuela nationalized (which is a nice way to say they stole) American oil interests and companies decades ago, has assisted Russia in flouting US sanctions, and has in part enabled the drug cartels. Each of those things cost us money. We're also getting a ton of immigrants from Venezuela that we have to spend money dealing with. Venezuela could also be a much better trading partner for us in the future with a liberal democratic society. All of that is directly in the best interest for the US. Believe it or not, sometimes our interests lie outside our borders.<p>Isolationism is a failed policy by every nation that tries it, and this is something that used to be taught to every school child in America about our past policies. It's a shame those lessons seem to have been forgotten by our people.<p>> On top of that, removing a ruler without any plan for follow-up frequently makes things worse, not better. We seem to have already forgotten that removing the leadership of Iraq led to the rise of ISIS and its horrifying consequences.<p>This is absolutely true. You have to destroy the security forces as well, and support the elected democratic leadership. We may fail to do so in this case.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2026 22:27:23 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46482378</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46482378</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46482378</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Unfortunately the non-democratic nations outnumber the democratic nations at the UN: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index</a><p>It's why the UN has an obsession with a tiny democracy in the middle east and ignores the multitude of brutal dictatorships which oppress and kill far more people around it and across the globe.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2026 15:25:44 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477720</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477720</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477720</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>This is a core problem of international politics.<p>We allow brutal dictatorships to continue subjugating tens of millions of people and killing millions in the name of convention. Our international organizations (the UN in particular) are basically ruled by authoritarian regimes. Is there no justification for external powers to effect regime change? We just have to wait and watch as the dictator kills a ton of people? Oh, and of course there is Maduro's support for Putin via sanctions evasion. Even now, Venezuelans face a brutal security force that is likely to retain power, but hopefully that power fragments.<p>Imo we should have done this right after the last election which Maduro stole.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2026 15:16:25 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477606</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477606</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477606</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>There are videos of Venezuelans celebrating in the streets, singing in large groups, cheering. I saw a video of someone from a balcony and it sounded like the entire city of Caracas was cheering. You can wait a few years for a survey or throw one up yourself.<p>The reaction I'm seeing from second-hand and direct reddit comments from actual Venezualans seems really positive.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2026 14:33:24 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477119</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477119</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46477119</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The vast majority of Venezuelans voted for his opponent in the last election, which is widely considered to have been stolen by Venezuelans and the international community: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_e...</a><p>There have been widespread protests in Venezuela throughout Maduro’s regime, but especially after the election.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2026 13:43:34 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46476516</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46476516</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46476516</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Source?</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2026 13:31:10 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46476385</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46476385</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46476385</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "America's future could hinge on whether AI slightly disappoints"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> more than a fifth of the entire S&P 500 market cap is now just three companies — Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple — two of which are basically big bets on AI.<p>These 3 companies have been heavyweights since long before AI. Before AI, you couldn't get Nvidia cards due to crypto, or gaming. Apple is barely investing in AI. Microsoft has been the most important enterprise tech company for my entire lifetime.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Tue, 14 Oct 2025 11:34:19 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45578772</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45578772</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45578772</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "The RubyGems "Security Incident""]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I agree that his position is right wing, but is it far right? Most nations explicitly exist for the people native to the place. Very few nations allow foreign immigration on the scale that the US, UK, Canada, do. And European countries make it pretty difficult to migrate normally- unless you’re a Muslim “refugee”. Being anti-immigrant is a default position in the world.<p>I think the average person on the left likes to believe they have the position that “all immigration is good”. In reality, they mean all migration by nonwhite people is good (see how they talk about white or near-white people in the US, Canada, Israel). It’s this hypocrisy and obviously racist stance that bugs me.<p>What makes Muslim migration to Europe “good” but Jewish migration to the stateless land of Israel from 1890-1948 bad? What makes Muslims moving to the US “good” but makes all white people in the US colonizers? Either everybody gets the colonizer notation (foolish imo) or migration is a human right (like it was for the million years before the modern nation-state) and everybody needs to fucking deal with it, stop killing each other and stop condemning people for moving or for the past crimes of people who may be barely related. And if you’re going to migrate: don’t be an asshole to the people there first.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 10 Oct 2025 12:49:58 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45538409</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45538409</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45538409</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "How Israeli actions caused famine in Gaza, visualized"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> Source?<p>Literally the OP and the magical thing called math I did in my last post.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2025 02:13:42 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45487009</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45487009</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45487009</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "How Israeli actions caused famine in Gaza, visualized"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The mortality exceeding the rate I mentioned is a prerequisite for declaring stage 5. It has not been met. You don’t declare stage 5 until it has according to their own standards.<p>The rate of death in Gaza from those causes is nowhere near that CDR. The total death rate from all causes is substantially below that number (by a factor of 4).</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 03 Oct 2025 17:18:49 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45465282</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45465282</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45465282</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "How Israeli actions caused famine in Gaza, visualized"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Completely absurd projection not supported by any serious sources. That would mean 1 in 3 Gazans dead, and 10 deaths per reported death, which would be completely out of line with other conflicts.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2025 23:45:13 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45456952</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45456952</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45456952</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "How Israeli actions caused famine in Gaza, visualized"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The IPC standard says for famine to be declared:<p>> at least two in every 10,000 people die each day from starvation, or from malnutrition and disease.<p>Gaza population is 2 million * 2/10000 = 400 people dying per day in order for it to be a famine.<p>> After more than 700 days of war, 455 Palestinians have died of malnutrition or starvation, including 151 children, the health ministry in Gaza reported on October 1. One hundred and seventy-seven of the total number have died of malnutrition or starvation since the IPC confirmed famine on August 15, it said.<p>Is 455 in 700 days more than 400 per day? I don’t know, I’m having trouble doing math. Perhaps the people of HN can tell me the IPC standard is being met as the CNN article states?<p>Media and general literacy is apparently impossible even for journalists.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 02 Oct 2025 23:41:32 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45456911</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45456911</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45456911</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "US Military struggling to deploy AI weapons"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The link works for me.<p>> The Pentagon has also struggled to find software that can successfully control large numbers of drones, made by different companies, working in coordination to find and potentially strike a target—a key to making the Replicator vision work.<p>So the software can't work with arbitrary drones. The article also talks about the high cost of some of the drones.<p>> Of the dozen or so autonomous systems acquired for Replicator, three were unfinished or existed only as a concept at the time they were selected, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Among Replicator’s shortcomings, officials said, is that the Defense Innovation Unit was directed to buy drones that had older technology, and it didn’t rigorously test platforms and software before acquiring them, other people familiar with the matter said.<p>So the military bought promises and basically funded some research. That's fine imo, they do that all the time, but their expectations did not align with results in these cases. And they didn't set good requirements for the platforms.<p>I expect the hopes for AI-driven drones with the ability to target individual humans by identity is probably not quite here yet. You have to get around jamming, fit any tech on a small platform, and it has to be cheap and disposable. And you don't actually want "AI", because you don't want it to mistakenly kill civilians, you want highly accurate computer vision.<p>In Russia and Ukraine, they are manually piloting drones that are attached by fiberoptic cable. It's cheap and effective, but requires a human pilot. At least for now, I would guess this is a much more effective (in results and cost) way to go. A human can pilot dozens of disposable drones in a day that drop their payload and are then discarded.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 28 Sep 2025 11:45:58 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45403634</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45403634</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45403634</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "The death of east London's most radical bookshop"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>This played out much like many coffee shops that I’ve seen in my city and others [0]. Basically some leftist with a little money and little to no business acumen opens a low margin business and hires far-left employees. Those employees, dissatisfied with their low wages - they are, after all, baristas at coffee shops that are barely profitable, if at all - form a union. When the owner tells them they can’t pay more and offer benefits because they are literally losing money, the employees then take to social media, destroying what little customer base the business had. The business closes, and the employees are now unemployed, having destroyed their own livelihood and a place they actually liked working, because they had this absurd idea that their queer/trans owner that was scraping by was some maniacal oligarch that deserved to be crushed by the workers.<p>The real lesson is that if you’re opening a small coffee shop or bookshop or similar small business, you have to work full time and not hire people unless absolutely necessary. And if you do hire others, avoid the communists.<p>0. <a href="https://www.34st.com/article/2022/08/minas-world-lgbtq-coffee-shop-black-malpractice-philadelphia-queer-sonam-parikh-kate-egghart" rel="nofollow">https://www.34st.com/article/2022/08/minas-world-lgbtq-coffe...</a></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 27 Sep 2025 22:53:59 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45400027</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45400027</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45400027</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by grumple in "Microsoft blocks Israel’s use of its tech in mass surveillance of Palestinians"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>> do you really believe it's possible to get a ~50% collateral damage rate when you care about innocent civilians?<p>You should look up civilian death rate in previous wars, even recent ones. Civilian deaths typically outnumber combatant deaths by a factor of at least 2:1, often more like 6:1, and sometimes more.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 27 Sep 2025 15:41:10 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45396698</link><dc:creator>grumple</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45396698</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45396698</guid></item></channel></rss>