Hacker News: hatthew

New comment by hatthew in "Maine is about to become the first state to ban major new data centers"

hatthew — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 21:40:11 +0000

I'd call that substantial

New comment by hatthew in "Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? My quest to unmask Bitcoin's creator"

hatthew — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:57:44 +0000

Isn't occam's razor that he's just some guy who doesn't like being famous

New comment by hatthew in "John Deere to pay $99M in right-to-repair settlement"

hatthew — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:04:00 +0000

Sure, if it's truly planned. I think the tricky part tends to be that it's hard to distinguish between "planned obsolescence" and "incidental obsolescence".

New comment by hatthew in "ML promises to be profoundly weird"

hatthew — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:23:39 +0000

Reddit alone contains about the same quantity of text (~10 billion posts * 10 words per post, vs 1 million books * 100k words per book). Messaging and document platforms (google docs, slack, discord, telegram, etc.) probably each have 1-3 orders of magnitude more than reddit. To your/GP's point though, those private platforms probably haven't been slurped up by LLMs yet.

New comment by hatthew in "Bitcoin and quantum computing"

hatthew — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:52:12 +0000

"Accelerated timeline" and "impossible" are not mutually exclusive. We may just reach the point where we conclude it's impossible sooner.

Not commenting on specific numbers/estimates.

New comment by hatthew in "Artemis computer running two instances of MS outlook; they can't figure out why"

hatthew — Thu, 02 Apr 2026 21:52:41 +0000

Sure, but bespoke software isn't necessarily going to be more reliable.

https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2000/04/06/things-you-should-...

> The idea that new code is better than old is patently absurd. Old code has been used. It has been tested. Lots of bugs have been found, and they’ve been fixed.

New comment by hatthew in "Show HN: 1-Bit Bonsai, the First Commercially Viable 1-Bit LLMs"

hatthew — Tue, 31 Mar 2026 23:52:10 +0000

I feel like it's a little disingenuous to compare against full-precision models. Anyone concerned about model size and memory usage is surely already using at least an 8 bit quantization.

Their main contribution seems to be hyperparameter tuning, and they don't compare against other quantization techniques of any sort.

New comment by hatthew in "DeployTarot.com – Tarot card reading for deployments"

hatthew — Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:36:13 +0000

What I notice is tailwind-derived CSS with a very dark background and a wide palette of bright color accents.

New comment by hatthew in "Deploytarot.com – tarot card reading for deployments"

hatthew — Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:30:10 +0000

Got the same, maybe it's looking at UTC time?

New comment by hatthew in "ARC-AGI-3"

hatthew — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 23:25:02 +0000

I'm not convinced. I wouldn't be surprised if GPT-2 to ChatGPT is the biggest single jump in "machine intelligence" we will ever see. I'd bet all gains in the future will be more incremental, at least until machines surpass humans by a large enough margin that it's difficult to qualify—let alone quantify—how big any given jump is.

Without a big jump, we're just going to boil the frog (ourselves).

New comment by hatthew in "My astrophotography in the movie Project Hail Mary"

hatthew — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 22:23:40 +0000

Makes sense, thanks!

New comment by hatthew in "My astrophotography in the movie Project Hail Mary"

hatthew — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 19:52:48 +0000

As a photographer and machine learning guy, I would call a lot of modern phone photos AI augmented. AI to stack photos or figure out what counts as the background is a little bit of a gray area, but an img-to-img CNN is about as close as you can get to full AI generation without a full GAN or diffusion model.

New comment by hatthew in "My astrophotography in the movie Project Hail Mary"

hatthew — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 19:46:14 +0000

Sure, but the nebulae also move along with the stars. The questions is how one can subtract the stars without also subtracting the nebulae. (I'm assuming different filters and/or a database of known star positions)

New comment by hatthew in "LaGuardia pilots raised safety alarms months before deadly runway crash"

hatthew — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 22:09:01 +0000

With publicly available information we can sync it to within ~2 seconds. All trucks other than the first one were definitely in the process of stopping in between the first and second time ATC told them to stop (5 seconds apart).

New comment by hatthew in "LaGuardia pilots raised safety alarms months before deadly runway crash"

hatthew — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 21:36:16 +0000

"Truck 1 and company" were cleared to cross. A few seconds later, "truck 1" was instructed to stop.

Edit: Confirmed truck 1 was the one involved in the collision. Previous text: It is unclear which truck specifically was involved in the crash. In photos, the truck has the number 35 on it, not sure if that would preclude it from being identified as "truck 1" verbally.

New comment by hatthew in "Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts"

hatthew — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 01:45:21 +0000

My understanding is that an individual works through a brokerage to buy/sell securities on an exchange. The brokerage knows who they are acting on behalf of, but not who is on the other side of the transaction. The public doesn't automatically know, except for government officials who are obligated to disclose their trading. In contrast, the fact that polymarket is crypo-based makes it a lot easier for people to be fully anonymous.

What I'm not sure of is whether disclosure regulations would apply to all government officials who could plausibly have insider knowledge (probably not?), whether oil futures would be covered by those regulations (probably?), whether it's possible to be fully anonymous to the brokerage (probably not?), and how much access law enforcement has to information regarding who is making what trades (not much without a court orders?).

I don't think that is a trivial amount of research to do, and I would guess the vast majority of people viewing this thread don't know the answers and will not try to find them out. I was hoping an expert would be able to enlighten us, so we can share informed opinions rather than uninformed opinions.

New comment by hatthew in "Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts"

hatthew — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 22:38:22 +0000

Not familiar with Brent Crude futures, is it possible to trade them anonymously the way you can on Polymarket?

New comment by hatthew in "Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts"

hatthew — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 22:29:34 +0000

> Otherwise they are simple gambling

maybe I'm dumb but I thought gambling is the whole point

New comment by hatthew in "US and TotalEnergies reach 'nearly $1B' deal to end offshore wind projects"

hatthew — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 20:22:07 +0000

And both are very different from not burning anything.

New comment by hatthew in "US and TotalEnergies reach 'nearly $1B' deal to end offshore wind projects"

hatthew — Mon, 23 Mar 2026 20:12:38 +0000

"Clean coal" is like saying "a fast snail". Sure it can be faster than other snails, but even if it's twice as fast as the second fastest snail, it's still a snail and I'll still laugh when an ant runs circles around it.