Also, they are really VLMs and VLAs and there are other types of architecture and there will be many more.

So if you think that there is something salient about humans that can't be reproduced eventually by AI, then look into religious dualism.

AI is not going to go away and it's not going to stop improving. That would go against the entire history of computing.

We have levels of improvements in the R&D pipeline in every area: hardware, software, model architecture and training. The models will get larger, architecture more sophisticated, computation dramatically more efficient. New materials, paradigms, more efficient nano-devices, scaling up manufacturing for better devices that are already out of the lab, etc. are in progress pointed towards multiple orders of magnitude efficiency gains. And by the way, that is not at all unusual -- we have been making large and small innovations in computing efficiency for decades.

There are still some things lacking in AI -- it still is jagged intelligence. Give it a few years, people will be nostalgic about the time when humans could still point to some victories here and there. That doesn't require any major breakthroughs -- just continuing to increase the size of the models and improving the training.

It's almost like, "don't hurt yourself unc, we will just search arxiv".

"During Bill Gates’s tenure leading Microsoft, the company paid out an estimated $8.46 billion in publicly known antitrust settlements, competitor payouts, and government fines."

I assume Sailfish and Ubuntu Touch are completely unimpacted?

But I would say that in some ways it's already obviously superhuman. The reason I think it's lacking in some jagged ways still at the expert level is because although it's highly optimized to be incredibly capable in many domains, it still doesn't have quite the same raw capacity for complexity in understanding one problem that humans do.

I believe that LLMs (really should be called VLMs for most of them) can still get much larger, and that will push the absolute complexity level and general IQ way over human level.

They are maxing out at like 5 or 10 trillion parameters right now. I believe we will see 50 and 100 trillion parameter models and models with large portions of that active. It will round out the jaggedness and probably more than double the raw intelligence that a human can achieve. It's not a linear scaling but who knows what the limit is and can go significantly higher with the same architecture I think given continued improvements in training and hardware scale.

Obviously kind of early and hard to pull off still, but by the end of next year I think you will see a ton of people attempting it with at least partial success.

There are already plenty of less serious attempts.

But it's still in its present form very intelligent in meaningful and useful ways. And it is not too soon to talk about concerns of a potential existential threat in the future. Because it could sooner than we might realize, threaten our existence.

Because of the potential, we should have a culture of caution as we continue to rapidly improve AI.

If there are constraints for food supplies, staff are not going to risk their jobs to keep prisoners fed.

There needs to be a law for video audits every X weeks. Or there is a real risk of starvation in some places. Some of them are for profit and the intense racial hatred is no joke.

By the way, at least as far as what it is showing me，SO is an AI site now. Home page Ask a question goes straight to an LLM doing RAG against Stack Overflow.

Edit: actually they tricked me into asking AI. The text box to ask AI is right next to what is actually an Ask A Question button that skips the AI.

It's training data seems limited or out of date because it had no idea what Gemma 4 E2B was. It just said that wasn't in the SO data and could I explain wtf I was talking about please. I guess not Gemma 3 either. And no web search. So it's useless for me today.

Interestingly, the Stack Overflow AI answer is provided by OpenAI, and these may be the most useless responses I have seen any time recently.

Whaddyaknow. Got me a little twinge of the good ole' rage tingles after all!

He's ramped his own AI spite up to a manic level.