Simplistic assumptions does not necessarily have favorable outcomes, on the contrary, it's more likely that climate change is worse than what we think it is because of our assumptions. Also climate models are insanely complex, usually contain thousands of equations that sum up the research efforts over the last hundred years, it's not some simple model that one guy can implement in an evening as you are basically trying to simulate the whole earth from the scale of plant stomata and molecular diffusion to the entire boundary layer plus the interactions and feedbacks between the different parts of the earth system.

As a climate scientist myself, I can tell you this is untrue and a harmful legend. As climate science is mostly atmospheric physics, biology and chemistry, it's pretty much very easy to disagree with anyone if you have a good argument supported by data. If you have strong scientific arguments, it does not matter even if the whole world is against you. On the contrary, this will likely make you famous and secure your career. Scientists (at least the curios ones) love to be proven wrong.

EDIT: spelling

Suppose you're a contestant on a game show. You're presented with three transparent closed doors. Behind one of the doors is a car, and behind the other two doors are goats. You want to win the car.

The game proceeds as follows: You choose one of the doors, but you don't open it yet, ((but since it's transparent, you can see the car is behind it)). The host, Monty Hall, who knows what's behind each door, opens one of the other two doors, revealing a goat. Now, you have a choice to make. Do you stick with your original choice or switch to the other unopened door?

GPT4 solves it correctly while GPT3.5 falls for it everytime.

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Edit: GPT4 fails If I remove the sentence between (()).

Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34846457

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