Hacker News: jncfhnb

New comment by jncfhnb in "Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 19:17:44 +0000

Ehhh I suppose but I think that’s a weak point. The purpose of shutting down the internet is undeniably to prevent the people from coordinating rebellion and the help control the narrative of the war.

New comment by jncfhnb in "AI Will Be Met with Violence, and Nothing Good Will Come of It"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 18:56:02 +0000

Your opinion appears to be people shouldn’t share opinions unless they achieve a certain level of activity behind. So, like, idk dude. I don’t see you campaigning to restrict free speech so shut up?

New comment by jncfhnb in "AI Will Be Met with Violence, and Nothing Good Will Come of It"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 17:27:43 +0000

I guess I just feel like your appeal to skilled manual workers is pointless. They’re not really the focal point. It’s the large masses of people being relegated to the bin labeled “effectively unskilled”.

New comment by jncfhnb in "Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 16:47:52 +0000

It would work at sufficient scale and sacrifice

New comment by jncfhnb in "Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 16:45:45 +0000

My anecdata is from just two families whom I am hearing from indirectly and have never met in person. The takeaways are:

1) they HATE their government more than anything in the world. They’ve seen the government killing its own people.

2) the consensus of civilians is that strikes by and large are hitting IRGC targets. They do not feel civilian targets are being targeted even though the nature of it has resulted in civilian deaths.

3) they don’t feel inclined to give trump the slightest amount of trust or good will. They just want regime change by any means.

New comment by jncfhnb in "Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 16:39:51 +0000

I don’t see any alternative angle though. Nobody thinks the IRGC is doing this for fun.

New comment by jncfhnb in "AI Will Be Met with Violence, and Nothing Good Will Come of It"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 16:38:33 +0000

You don’t get to gatekeep having political opinions

New comment by jncfhnb in "AI Will Be Met with Violence, and Nothing Good Will Come of It"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 15:20:32 +0000

Removing a white collar job from the economy puts a worker into the bottom tier _and_ reduces the wages of that bottom tier.

We are speeding towards a servant class. Uber was the first wave. Now it’s more mundane things like getting groceries. I doubt it will be long before we rip off the band aid and make full time servants more popular.

New comment by jncfhnb in "AI Will Be Met with Violence, and Nothing Good Will Come of It"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 15:14:36 +0000

Violence against economic shifts from labor to capital have pretty much consistently failed though. At best they’ve won brief relief that eventually got swallowed by the invisible mouth.

You can’t really fight this stuff because of global competition.

New comment by jncfhnb in "AI Will Be Met with Violence, and Nothing Good Will Come of It"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 15:11:36 +0000

Establishing consensus through discussion is the basis of democracy

New comment by jncfhnb in "Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 15:10:31 +0000

I guess. But the framing here is not “clever, innovative IRGC” so much as oppressive regime fucking over it’s people to retain control.

New comment by jncfhnb in "Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 14:54:28 +0000

It’s very economically harmful to be disconnected. That’s the downside

New comment by jncfhnb in "Internet outage in Iran reaches 1,008 hours"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 14:53:49 +0000

This is all likely true. Although I feel people undersell how they work together.

Iranians broadly hate their government, yeah. But the thing that gets them rioting is economic failure. Which the strikes have exacerbated.

Social media is swarmed by people saying it’ll be like Iraq and Iranians will hate the US for its actions. I’m not convinced. My small anecdata of Iranian friends with contacts in Iran agrees with me.

I think we could see regime change within a decade.

New comment by jncfhnb in "Why AI Sucks at Front End"

jncfhnb — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 13:57:46 +0000

Imo front end is what it’s best at.

New comment by jncfhnb in ""AI polls" are fake polls"

jncfhnb — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 18:34:32 +0000

No not really. It’s just if you ask the model what percent of people like apples, it doesn’t know the answer. We don’t even need to get to the level of change of opinions.

Models don’t “poll” their training data. If you give it five yes answers and five no answers, it doesn’t think that it’s 50/50.

If you give it actual data it can derive it, but that would be a poll

New comment by jncfhnb in ""AI polls" are fake polls"

jncfhnb — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 18:32:43 +0000

That’s just fundamentally not a meaningful argument

You need to assess calibration. Not “accuracy”. What does “in play” even mean?

New comment by jncfhnb in ""AI polls" are fake polls"

jncfhnb — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 17:57:54 +0000

This whole synthetic sampling thing really boggles my mind. It’s like… it’s difficult to come up with an example that doesn’t feel like a hyperbolic strawman. It’s just that dumb.

New comment by jncfhnb in "The cult of vibe coding is dogfooding run amok"

jncfhnb — Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:00:09 +0000

That is abstraction of the implementation of the tool, not the output.

Producing outputs you don’t understand is novel

New comment by jncfhnb in "Eat Real Food"

jncfhnb — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 18:13:23 +0000

The phrasing you’re looking for is that 12% of Americans consume an average of 50% of beef consumed every day.

By saying “on any given day” you are suggesting it’s a different 12%. The article does confuse this by identifying cohorts that eat more beef. But it’s a tautological label based on the survey data. They identify some correlates, like being a 50 something male. But there are males who are 50 something that don’t eat any beef. They’re not included in the 12%.

The 12% is just the outcome of the sample. It doesn’t mean they’re a consistent cohort.

Example:

* on any given day x million women give birth

* there are x million women who give birth every day

New comment by jncfhnb in "Eat Real Food"

jncfhnb — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 18:07:23 +0000

> is it normal, in the USA, for half of all people to only eat beef once every 8 days?

Thats not the implication of 12% of Americans eating 50% of beef by consumed by all Americans that day.

If I had to make up some numbers it’s probably that, on any random day, 12% of Americans ate 50% of the beef (a large burger), 28% of American ate the rest of the beef (bit of lunch meat), and 60% of Americans did not eat any beef.