Hacker News: jpadkins

New comment by jpadkins in "Nasdaq plummets 4% into correction territory"

jpadkins — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 21:11:09 +0000

is it possible you were mislead?

New comment by jpadkins in "Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895B in revised S-1"

jpadkins — Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:06:59 +0000

Rough guess: 100-150 $1T companies in the next 5 years. The only way out of the US debt problem is to inflate it away.

New comment by jpadkins in "Anthropic's internal AI use, at retail prices, now exceeds its employee pay"

jpadkins — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 20:33:51 +0000

law of large numbers

New comment by jpadkins in "Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895B in revised S-1"

jpadkins — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 16:13:57 +0000

Only with money you can afford to have sit (hold) for 10+ years. The closest analogy we have dotcom bubble and crash. We don't know if we are in 1998 or 1999. For most investors who got in in 1999 and held, they didn't break even until 2007 or longer. Versus the investor that got in 1998, was break even in 2003.

Obviously the investors who bought in at the bottom did the best :-) Most people who are crying 'AI bubble' predicted 8 of the last 2 bubbles.

My personal opinion is ANT IPO is like the netscape IPO of 1995, its the start of the cycle not the end. Things are going to get really crazy over the next 3-5 years, the last year was just a warmup. I don't think people realize how much credit fiat dollars have been and can be created, and how $1T companies will be commonplace. I think humans have a mental block, where we think dollars are like rulers or other fixed measuring devices, so you can look at the same number at different periods of time and compare. credit backed currency completely warps our sense of scale when it comes to measuring things in dollars.

New comment by jpadkins in "US tech stocks see sharp falls over AI cost fears"

jpadkins — Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:13:31 +0000

Google ad revenue (or even search ad revenue) did not drop. It just grew slower than it did last quarter.

New comment by jpadkins in "Kentucky man becomes the first humanist granted religious exemption from AI"

jpadkins — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 16:54:59 +0000

He is an educator at a public university. I don't think they push people or goals very hard.

New comment by jpadkins in "Amazon Is Gutting Its AI Division After Sustained Failure"

jpadkins — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 01:52:54 +0000

Trump is hated by most of the rich and powerful.

New comment by jpadkins in "Genie 4"

jpadkins — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 01:42:20 +0000

customers? You can buy Genie? It's still very much in tech preview, research phase.

New comment by jpadkins in "Anthropic S-1"

jpadkins — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 17:20:31 +0000

neither do agents (harness + models).

New comment by jpadkins in "Anthropic S-1"

jpadkins — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 17:07:33 +0000

3% is the target. 3% of colonists fought in the US revolutionary war. You need a majority to support you, and 3% to fight.

New comment by jpadkins in "CVE Tracker"

jpadkins — Sat, 24 Oct 2026 11:41:09 +0000

gov contractors will always whine when funding gets cut. And then things work the same or better after the cuts. Such is life.

New comment by jpadkins in "Kimi K3.1 Pro and K3.1 Pro Highspeed"

jpadkins — Sat, 24 Oct 2026 02:06:18 +0000

you think LLMs or agent harnesses have intention?

New comment by jpadkins in "Maybe There Was an Egg Cartel After All"

jpadkins — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:23:46 +0000

That's correct. We are reading about this story because of the prioritizations of the current administration.

New comment by jpadkins in "ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program"

jpadkins — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:11:17 +0000

International oligarchs needs defining?

An international oligarch is an extremely wealthy and powerful business figure or tycoon who uses massive financial resources to exercise political, economic, or social influence across national borders.

New comment by jpadkins in "90% of US working hours are spent on tasks not covered well by AI benchmarks"

jpadkins — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 18:42:43 +0000

3 parts of the economy least impacted by Info Tech, also two of them are heavily regulated (housing, healthcare) which can mute tech impact on prices.

New comment by jpadkins in "90% of US working hours are spent on tasks not covered well by AI benchmarks"

jpadkins — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 17:56:54 +0000

different side of the same coin: Of course smart companies are going to automate the most profitable tasks first, they seek profits! However, the benefit for society is also the greatest. As long as competition holds, the reduced costs in these tasks will represent the greatest savings for consumers. Tech has been creating disinflation for decades for consumers. AI may accelerate that (it hasn't so far).

New comment by jpadkins in "ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program"

jpadkins — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 17:41:03 +0000

I didn't answer because it was nonsensical. The program won't help the oligarchs. But it won't slow them down much either.

I have no idea what you are talking about with cats, dogs and babies.

New comment by jpadkins in "ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program"

jpadkins — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:19:58 +0000

no, not nearly enough. $100M will help catch a few illegal immigrants, at huge inefficiencies and a loss of civil liberties.

New comment by jpadkins in "The First Social Network: In rural Argentina residents send messages w AM radio"

jpadkins — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 12:21:57 +0000

you left out the part where the system (capitalism) is creating the technology that people use and makes their life better.

Giving people material goods or technology does make them wealthy. Sometimes it even hurts them https://humanprogress.org/agricultural-subsidies-in-wealthy-... You have to understand poverty and what causes it before you are able to solve for it. Your colonial / dependency mindset will not help.

New comment by jpadkins in "Just say no to OpenAI and Anthropic"

jpadkins — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:23:47 +0000

you dodged the question.