It can be true that using cloud storage, using managed services, and paying a premium is still worth it for a lot of people and organizations, and while not perfect, still a hell of a lot better compared to the fully in your control tape backups that you distribute to different physical locations every week.

I'm not a particular fan of relying on one provider or vendor lock in, but to pretend they don't provide a service with failure rates that are low enough to be very useful is a very short-sighted take.

what a time to be alive.

All of these breakthroughs are in verifiable brute force domains, and some of them are probably wrong because of a typo in a lean specification or just a base level axiom being incomplete.

I think the better the way to think about LLMs is like they are new substances, like when we first discovered clay or bronze, but confined to the digital realm. Previously we were chipping away at stones trying to make to things as close to useful as possible, then we found a step change. LLMs are like clay but they have their limitations. Wake me up when they are proposing new, { conjecture: interesting|useful|new } and not as a side effect of trying to get to a goal.

It doesn't need need to be tied to some mystical god, "music is my religion" is a phrase that has been used and is understood easily, and you can replace music with many other nouns, games, science, family, dog grooming, whatever.

You can kind of see this in the rise of weird internet cults around celebrities and obviously many IRL cults over the years, and I don't know if the frequency of weird cults has increased in the last 3 decades but I would take wild guess and say it has.

"Make religions cool again" is a bit of a hard sell considering worldwide events but unless we can come up with a better word for a shared value system where people sacrifice things they can gain, for the good of the group, I don't think there is a stronger word.

I mean maybe its a skill issue on my part, and I'm sure astra will get much better at coding but at the moment its useful in that I don't have to write the code or setup the build scripts or test fixture boilerplate but there is absolutely no way I can just give a (fairly well specified) goal and let it run and expect it to make good design and implementation decisions. Fable probably better but doing something outside of their training distribution that's not the equivalent to cloning an example unreal project or whatever is pretty disastrous unless you are directing it very closely.

The exception of course is, cyber , and its very obvious why. Its trivial to create RL environments that create bugs and then have an isolated environment and let the models try break it. This is not at all surprising, finding vulns and exploits IS just brute force work. That's why so many (blackhat/hardcore/unicorn-colored/greyish alien) hackers are basement dwellers. Its just a matter of putting in the time and mashing every combination until you find something that looks weird, spending days on that and then rinse repeat. It's brutally exhausting work that requires a certain level of knowledge and a shitload of determination and stamina and for humans, almost always an external source of motivation to keep going.

For humans that has always been a respected thing, dedication, determination, persistence, these are words we use for humans brute-forcing solutions and not giving up until they find the solution or die trying.

Personally I'm yet to see any evidence of LLMs doing anything interesting but (heuristically) brute-force problems and be very good at text and natural language to a level that is very very useful. I've no doubt that what we discovered with Auto Regressive LLMs is incredibly important so I'm not a skeptic, but I think its very hard to measure where we are with so much subjective information around.

Just on PG as a persona, I was never a fan or non fan I've barely read his blogposts and only know of him incidentally from knowing this forum, but on the general area of "thought leaders" and the increasingly asymmetry one-to-many relationships we have been getting used to for decades I came across this very interesting and well put together video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dqh17U3tymU , give it 15 minutes if you do decide to watch it its a bit of a slow burn.

also realized i posted this under the wrong story since the OP/story is mostly about human politics.

I also don't believe it much practical use, unless I'm mistaken, approximations of Navier stokes have been available for a long time to whatever precision you need.

I'm not a complete disbeliever by any stretch , and also a complete amateur, but it was inevitable that these problems would be solved under the axioms that again, are human defined, under brute force. The real question is, are those axioms the bottom level, and if they are not, who is going to set the new aximons and can we understand them.

I've no doubt there's useful breakthroughs that will happen, but I think it should be remembered that the method being used is still a heuristic brute force approach is being very narrowly applied against axioms and math and physics which humans described in the first place, and almost undoubtably has errors and/or is not complete.

Its a great example of the power of LLMs but its not 'we've solved science now just pour more tokens in'

persisted malicious code running in your tmux process that you don't know about is probably not where you want to be, for obvious reasons.

My current opinion on LLMs is that they are superhuman in that they lack fatigue, they have close to full knowledge across all subjects which are known to humans at least publicly, and the fact that you can vibe code a harness to look for bugs in a famously complicated C codebase is intern level stuff and hardly news.

Smart aspiring blackhats will be targeting tmux next, both with light llm jailbreaks, light supply chain attacks (web search results) and LPEs within certain environments which weren't particularly useful before but with agents running on auto mode for hours become a very valuable springboard. I'm not sure on the quality of tmux code but I know its written in C and is very complex and was not at all designed to defend against this type of threat.

I think the decision of GrapheneOS to maintain the attestation features and not providing user root is what gives it a fighting chance of being accepted as legitimate 3rd choice. See: Revolut and others adding GrapheneOS keys and trusting their attestation

Like or not, for most users, having root access is a liability, especially with more and more important things being held on phones . Someone downloading a photo editing app and then having a rootkit installed in the background that waits to empty their bank account is not a workable situation.

if you want a more specific and narrow definition for certain classes of XYZ, you can do that, I wasn't trying to do that here.

if you want to play pedant paddle, explain the relationship between the words habitual and habit, write an essay, and submit to webster, to oxford and any of your favorite dictionary and try and get them to change the the top definition of habit to be a synonym for addiction.

In the meantime I'll get on with my life because I know what I said was perfectly clear and accurate.

Going for a 5k jog every morning is also a habit that affects your brain chemistry, through different mechanisms, and can also be addictive. It's obviously much healthier, but its still a habit, that is reinforced via brain chemistry rewards etc (addictive in some people). It's not as widely seen or known but there is a small cohort of people who exercise becomes a problematic habit and ends up being detrimental to their health.

I suggest you check the definition of the words. I specifically wasn't talking about addiction because that is just one axis of what can make up a habit. Drinking water is a habit that is not addictive but pretty hard to quit. If you take a wider view there are tons of habits that are either harmful or positive, but have no addictive component, and have no chemical component, and are either hard or easy to pickup / drop.

I'd say the ease which you can pick up habits or drop them is extremely variable across the specific habit and person. (as a different example, someone with less social awareness will find it harder to pick up the habit of being a hospitable host than someone it comes naturally to, but once learned its probably fairly easy to maintain)

One of my favorite quotes is, "first the man makes the habit, then the habit makes the man" , and it works both ways, good and bad. I really think this is something that should be taught much more explicitly in school to everyone, rather than leaving it only in places like sports and the military.