Hacker News: kipchak

New comment by kipchak in "Katamari Damacy but it's The Met collection"

kipchak — Tue, 03 Nov 2026 16:16:42 +0000

The original uses quasi tank tread style controls, somewhat mirroring the character pushing with each hand on the Katamari. For example pushing forward on both sticks would move you forward, pushing forward on the left stick and back on the right would turn to the right, and pushing left on both sticks would move you left.

New comment by kipchak in "Meta Muse Glimmer – open weights 30B local coding model"

kipchak — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 14:10:06 +0000

Think they're talking about things that are free as in beer but not free as in freedom, not FOSS

New comment by kipchak in "Nothing works and everyone is euphoric"

kipchak — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 18:25:45 +0000

I think the trouble you are experiencing is you are basically asking people to change or update their whole framework for looking at the world. The identity portion is to some extent a load bearing column. It's like asking a hunter gatherer to think about individual property rights.

New comment by kipchak in "AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt"

kipchak — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 17:18:09 +0000

Looking at for example 1965, the top 10 of the S&P500 were, rounded, ATT 9%, GM 7%, Exxon (4%) IBM (4%) DuPont (3%) Texaco (3%) Sears (3%) GE 2%, Kodak 2%, Gulf 1%, for a total of 38%.

This is pretty close to current concentration, but the current top 10% is basically all technology except for Eli Lily at 1.5%, so in that sense it's arguably unprecedented.

There's a good chart here on page 5 of top 10 weights over time, and on 6 of how the 1965 top 10 fared to 2025.

https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf...

New comment by kipchak in "AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt"

kipchak — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 22:25:57 +0000

In that sense, isn't the 60/40 or Boglehead perspective also timing the market, in the sense that you are betting the regime of the past will continue into the near future?

To me the diversification hedge options (say GUNR) seem like they are helping you get closer to regime neutral. Or in other words you are giving up returns to cover more macro scenarios and betting less on what the future looks like.

New comment by kipchak in "AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt"

kipchak — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 18:28:25 +0000

I think the risk for increasing your bond exposure as compensation would be if instead of a low growth/low inflation scenario (Bonds do well) there's a low growth+high inflation scenario (1940s, 1970s, 2022) and the negative correlation between stocks and bonds doesn't hold.

New comment by kipchak in "AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt"

kipchak — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 15:58:02 +0000

Regardless of whether it's a good idea, it absolutely happens and as a result would impact retirees, both in individually managed accounts and target date funds. For example here 70+ are 45% equity.[1] TROW retirement 2020 funds are about 50% stock, for example, and only decrease to a floor of 30%.

https://workplace.vanguard.com/content/dam/inst/iig-transfor... (page 78)

New comment by kipchak in "AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt"

kipchak — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 15:43:05 +0000

Regarding unprecedented concentration, wasn't the nifty fifty era comparable for the top 10, about 40%?

New comment by kipchak in "The lost joy of music piracy"

kipchak — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 18:08:34 +0000

For the lyrics/vocals, the closest I can think of is Brat by MoxiFloxi though the genre isn't quite a match, the lyrics/vibe is sort of their "thing". Maybe one of the Benny Bassani Satisfaction remixes or Halogen - U Got also that but they're further.

New comment by kipchak in "How to read more books"

kipchak — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 14:36:14 +0000

There's only so much time we have. If I can filter out a category of music (slop) I know from experience I'm 99% likely to not enjoy I'd like to be able to.

New comment by kipchak in "Apple to increase spend with Broadcom to produce billions more U.S. chips"

kipchak — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:55:48 +0000

In terms of the country's overall health I think you could argue we've sold industrial capacity for wealth, and it's too early to say if it was a good trade. Reliance on China for Rare Earth Minerals is commonly referenced, [1] but China is in general a major supplier to the DoW, which negatively hampers our ability to for example credibly deter an invasion of Taiwan. Arguably Post WWII Pax Americana, which relies on industrial capacity, has kept the peace more so than economic interdependence. For example Pre WWI Germany and the UK were each others' largest trading partner, and a conflict was argued to be economically unthinkable. [2]

It also increases the immiseration of those in the areas replaced[3], which is likely a contributor to rising populism and political instability. Most of this malaise is just hidden in places like the Rust Belt.

[1]https://www.csis.org/analysis/rare-earth-export-restrictions...

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion

[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_of_despair

New comment by kipchak in "Resetting Xbox"

kipchak — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 20:37:38 +0000

There's a bit of Mad Libs in there as well, you can for example add your own conversation topics or draw your own food items or pets which the characters will then talk to each other about.

New comment by kipchak in "Nintendo has raised its employees base salary by 10%"

kipchak — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 16:51:25 +0000

I think they're ordering it as a la carte vs a combo. The same items are $20.5 vs $13 pretax at the location closest to me in Florida.

New comment by kipchak in "Nintendo has raised its employees base salary by 10%"

kipchak — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 16:20:07 +0000

I agree, though 2 seems pretty tricky to navigate/predict. For example I wouldn't have guessed Advanced Wars would get a new release after Days of Ruin, or with Earthbound I could maybe see Mother 3 finally getting a US release with how popular Undertale/Deltarune has been. Maybe the best option is to be as under the radar as possible until it's done and out.

New comment by kipchak in "Nintendo has raised its employees base salary by 10%"

kipchak — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 15:06:50 +0000

Part of this was the Spaceworld 2000 demo creating expectations for a game which looked basically like Ocarina of Time but on the GameCube. Then when Twilight Princess came out people missed the Wind Waker art style and the cycle continued.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNrOHY2HZqs

New comment by kipchak in "Nintendo has raised its employees base salary by 10%"

kipchak — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 14:44:05 +0000

AM2R for example was distributed for free and DMCA-ed.

New comment by kipchak in "Linux for the Sega MegaDrive"

kipchak — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 18:44:31 +0000

Comix Zone holds up well too I think.

New comment by kipchak in "Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)"

kipchak — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 17:38:40 +0000

imo this sort of strategy is not decided at the POTUS level, or at least there's consensus. For example during Biden's term the trade war largely persisted or expanded.

Competing in terms of production is realistically not an option (Triffin Dilemma, strong currency means exports other than tech/finance are inherently noncompetitive). Competitive exports would require giving up the dollar as a unilateral reserve currency, and China for the reverse reasons, at least for now, does not seem to want the Yuan to be a reserve currency. My personal read is both sides wish for something like the current system to persist but on more favorable terms.

I agree China has been actively taking steps for this scenario, but that they're continuing to make strides seems to indicate it is still an issue. I think we're still in the thick of it before a victor is conclusively decided either way.

New comment by kipchak in "Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)"

kipchak — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 16:24:55 +0000

The pro argument I find most convincing is that the US's interest is mostly in restricting oil going from Venezuela to China, which previously was the majority destination of of Venezuela's imports. A similar case can be made for Iran.

China possibly expecting something to this effect has recently built up both it's coal and renewables capacity, as well as an extremely large SPR.

New comment by kipchak in "Steam Machine launches today"

kipchak — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 19:42:43 +0000

I don't think the goal here is to necessarily sell a bunch of hardware units, but to create a new product category of devices which buy games from steam, like the steam deck did with handheld gaming PCs.