I find this article a pretty compelling critique of the extractive incentives of Wall Street and a good argument for government stepping in from time to time to adjust those incentives. Where is the societal good in the engine of capitalism prioritizing short-term extraction over long-term value creation?

Many of the people I've encountered who are most staunchly anti-AI are hobbyists. They enjoy programming in their spare time and they got into software as a career because of that. If AI can now adequately perform the enjoyable part of the job in 90% of cases, then what's left for them?

Leases can be better, but again they are usually better choices in high depreciation scenarios (like luxury vehicles or EVs, as you point out), not low depreciation scenarios.

> The narrative synthesis presented negative associations between GPS use and performance in environmental knowledge and self-reported sense of direction measures and a positive association with wayfinding. When considering quantitative data, results revealed a negative effect of GPS use on environmental knowledge (r = −.18 [95% CI: −.28, −.08]) and sense of direction (r = −.25 [95% CI: −.39, −.12]) and a positive yet not significant effect on wayfinding (r = .07 [95% CI: −.28, .41]).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027249442...

Keeping the analogy going: I'm worried we will soon have a world of developers who need GPS to drive literally anywhere.

Of course at a basic level, if AI is indeed a "bubble", then the investors did not reason correctly. But this situation is more like poker than chess, and you cannot expect that decisions that appear rational are in fact completely accurate.

When I see this line of reasoning, it leads me down the road of determinism instead. Who is to say what determines the quality of choices people make? Does one's upbringing, circumstance, and genetics not determine the quality of one's mind and therefore whether or not they will make good choices in life? I don't understand how we can meaningfully distinguish between "things that happen to you" and "things you do" if the set of "things that happen to you" includes things like being born to specific people in a specific time and place. Surely every decision you make happens in your brain and your brain is shaped by things beyond your control.

Maybe this is an unprovable position, but it does lead me to think that for any individual, making a poor choice isn't really "their" fault in any strong sense.

In your working mental model, you have broad understandings of the broader domain. You have broad understandings of the architecture. You summarize broad sections of the program into simpler ideas. module_a does x, module_b does y, insane file c does z, and so on. Then there is the part of the software you're actively working on, where you need more concrete context.

So as you move towards the central task, the context becomes more specific. But the vague outer context is still crucial to the task at hand. Now, you can certainly find ways to summarize this mental model in an input to an LLM, especially with increasing context windows. But we probably need to understand how we would better present these sorts of things to achieve performance similar to a human brain, because the mechanism is very different.