Hacker News: knightfall21https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=knightfall21Hacker News RSShttps://hnrss.org/hnrss v2.1.1Mon, 06 Jul 2026 23:08:55 +0000<![CDATA[New comment by knightfall21 in "An election forecast that’s 50-50 is not “giving up”"]]>The problem is using statistical models at all for predicting the probability of one time events. (elections are every 4 years, but those future models will be different).

You can't validate such a model, and it's not useful since any upset victory was "accounted for" simply because its possibility was named.

]]>Tue, 11 Mar 2025 16:03:50 +0000https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43333833knightfall21https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43333833https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43333833<![CDATA[New comment by knightfall21 in "WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)"]]>Yes, and breaking that final gold-dollar link to fix the overspending issue caused productivity to be disconnected from the money supply, thus allowing more of the value capture to happen to those who could create equity or be loaned money.

]]>Wed, 15 Jan 2025 18:14:51 +0000https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42714797knightfall21https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42714797https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42714797