Hacker News: lokar

New comment by lokar in "The federal keyword lists that canceled billions in research funding"

lokar — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:22:33 +0000

See:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual_state_(model)

New comment by lokar in "Anthropic revenue reportedly jumps to more than $11.5B in second quarter"

lokar — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:52:10 +0000

They are valued as if one company will win and get almost the entire market. And that the market will be massive and profitable.

New comment by lokar in "US oil reserves are so low, the caverns holding them could be damaged"

lokar — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:49:39 +0000

The president, and his supporters in Congress. He could not be doing what he has been doing without them. They share responsibility.

New comment by lokar in "US oil reserves are so low, the caverns holding them could be damaged"

lokar — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:47:52 +0000

Even if US refineries used light crude, the producers sell to the highest bidder.

New comment by lokar in "US oil reserves are so low, the caverns holding them could be damaged"

lokar — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:37:31 +0000

I think one could have anticipated the temptation to use it to smooth prices in election years.

New comment by lokar in "US oil reserves are so low, the caverns holding them could be damaged"

lokar — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:36:38 +0000

And it was not expected to be used that way. It was expected to be used a few times, mostly all of it, for big emergencies. Not to smooth prices in an election year.

New comment by lokar in "US oil reserves are so low, the caverns holding them could be damaged"

lokar — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 14:34:42 +0000

On the news they said it was not really meant to be drained and filled many times. Also, not expected to last as long as it has.

New comment by lokar in "I Remain a Skeptic"

lokar — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 02:48:08 +0000

People keep saying that, but there are no real confirmed numbers. And an incredibly high incentive to lie.

New comment by lokar in "AI Isn't Outthinking Mathematicians. It's Out-Remembering Them"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 20:11:01 +0000

Or the just read Woit, uh, 20 years ago now, “not even wrong”.

New comment by lokar in "Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracking"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 18:52:34 +0000

One possibility is that the real activity at this point is not between the US and Iran, but between the gulf states (who are probably willing to accept a compromise) and Iran, and then also between the gulf states (again, who want this over) and Trump who needs to claim victory.

New comment by lokar in "Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracking"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 17:42:09 +0000

I think (based on reading people who seem well informed) that what matters in Iran is the commitment of the elites in power and loyalty of the security forces. Authoritarian governments can suppress popular will for a long time before collapsing.

For US military power, it seems like the lesson is we can do two things:

- inflict a great deal of physical damage quickly, without any domestic support.

- fight a sustained conflict for an extended period of, with domestic support.

It seems they planned for the first, not the second. Both world wars, the Korean and Vietnam wars all inflicted great costs (loss of life, costs to the government budget, and costs to consumers), but were maintained for quite a while. But they all had significant popular support.

New comment by lokar in "Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracking"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 17:17:20 +0000

Absolute pain is not the right measure. You have to look at the level of pain that will threaten the stability of the current government or group in power.

On that basis, it’s less clear. How close Iran’s to meaningful instability is debated, and I’ve not seen a convincingly definitive argument from any side.

New comment by lokar in "At-home test for infected ticks could improve Lyme Disease diagnosis"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 16:31:13 +0000

A problem with vaccines and the public is that when you perform any intervention on many many people, some will happen to (randomly) suffer some issue. To them, it is obviously causation, regardless of what the math (that they do t understand) says.

New comment by lokar in "At-home test for infected ticks could improve Lyme Disease diagnosis"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 16:05:44 +0000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyme_disease#Vaccination

New comment by lokar in "Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracking"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:59:17 +0000

But isn’t that the situation we are in now? Both side can hurt the other, without much chance of a real military loss. So it’s a contest for who can withstand more pain for longer. It seems Iran wins that contest.

New comment by lokar in "Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracking"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:57:28 +0000

Fertilizer. And imports for the gulf states.

New comment by lokar in "Strait of Hormuz Live Traffic Tracking"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 14:30:16 +0000

More than oil goes through the strait. And some of the producers don’t have another way out except via a neighboring country.

New comment by lokar in "Jane Street suffers $15B hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 03:52:15 +0000

That seems to be about a fee change that increased costs for market makers, widening spreads.

New comment by lokar in "Jane Street suffers $15B hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 02:53:27 +0000

Does it really hurt institutional traders? How? Is it based on the idea that they can’t get the retail spreads? Because there is no world where they would have ever gotten them. A market maker would loose money doing that.

New comment by lokar in "Stop sending me huge PRs; a rant"

lokar — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 02:34:53 +0000

You could allow commits in the same PR that must all go together, and then squash them before you merge