Hacker News: m101

New comment by m101 in "Tech valuations are back to pre-AI boom levels"

m101 — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 22:37:58 +0000

Except they are fundamentally different companies now. Now they have no free cash flow and they are extremely capital intensive industrial businesses.

Another note is that this is on forward earnings. What may have just happened is analyst expectations on forward earnings have caught up what markets prices earlier. Forward earnings generally lag pricing, this happens on the way up, and on the way down..

New comment by m101 in "Tesla Is Sitting on a Record 50k Unsold EVs"

m101 — Sat, 04 Apr 2026 11:55:27 +0000

I think q1 is a weak quarter for sales so it might be that inventory build is normal in this quarter. Economic weakness and high energy prices will not help sales though.

New comment by m101 in "Ukrainian drone holds position for 6 weeks"

m101 — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 20:36:04 +0000

It would start economical and then some side would eventually resort to the meat grinder.

New comment by m101 in "Statement from Dario Amodei on our discussions with the Department of War"

m101 — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 00:34:44 +0000

I wonder whether what is really behind this is that they can’t make a model without the safeguards because it would require re-training?

They get to look good by claiming it’s an ethical stance.

New comment by m101 in "How Taalas “prints” LLM onto a chip?"

m101 — Sun, 22 Feb 2026 10:30:20 +0000

If you’re running at 17k tokens / s what is the point of multiple agents?

New comment by m101 in "How Taalas “prints” LLM onto a chip?"

m101 — Sun, 22 Feb 2026 09:39:58 +0000

So if we assume this is the future, the useful life of many semiconductors will fall substantially. What part of the semiconductor supply chain would have pricing power in a world of producing many more different designs?

Perhaps mask manufacturers?

New comment by m101 in "Claude Sonnet 4.6"

m101 — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 21:38:42 +0000

It will be validated but that doesn’t mean that the providers of these services will be making money. It’s about the demand at a profitable price. The uncontroversial part is that the demand exists at an unprofitable price.

New comment by m101 in "EU bans the destruction of unsold apparel, clothing, accessories and footwear"

m101 — Sun, 15 Feb 2026 18:32:07 +0000

good comment, but of course it's downvoted on hackernews

New comment by m101 in "Claude Opus 4.6"

m101 — Thu, 05 Feb 2026 20:06:51 +0000

It’s not clear at all because model training upfront costs and how you depreciate them are big unknowns, even for deprecated models. See my last comment for a bit more detail.

New comment by m101 in "Claude Opus 4.6"

m101 — Thu, 05 Feb 2026 20:02:53 +0000

I think actually working out whether they are losing money is extremely difficult for current models but you can look backwards. The big uncertainties are:

1) how do you depreciate a new model? What is its useful life? (Only know this once you deprecate it)

2) how do you depreciate your hardware over the period you trained this model? Another big unknown and not known until you finally write the hardware off.

The easy thing to calculate is whether you are making money actually serving the model. And the answer is almost certainly yes they are making money from this perspective, but that’s missing a large part of the cost and is therefore wrong.

New comment by m101 in "The Great Unwind"

m101 — Thu, 05 Feb 2026 11:47:06 +0000

When you lend money at 1% but market rates are 30% then you are, in fact, losing money. Except under your definition you are not losing money.

New comment by m101 in "American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis"

m101 — Mon, 19 Jan 2026 17:39:33 +0000

Isn’t the point that US individuals pay it in order to incentivise them to make products locally?

New comment by m101 in "I rebooted my social life"

m101 — Sat, 03 Jan 2026 17:02:39 +0000

If you exclude mortgage payments or rent then living in London is probably cheaper than living in most places in the US. We don’t have significant real estate taxes, my annual expenses on housing exc rent or mortgage payments (energy, service charge, internet, water, council taxes) is around 7-8k$. If you want health insurance it’s another 200-300$ a month but we have the nhs (albeit it is terrible for anything non-life threatening).

New comment by m101 in "I rebooted my social life"

m101 — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 21:56:30 +0000

On a tangent to the article- I quit my career just over two years ago now: same age as author, live in London too. The hardest thing about not working is the social life that work gives you. Whilst we may think that work is for money, it is also for 1) filling our time, and 2) spending time with people. Yes, some people are definitely a net-negative interaction, but most people are actually positive to one’s day, but in one of those “you need to not work for a year to know it” way.

Amongst other reflections I have:

1) a pay-check does give you a sense of validation. This took some getting through

2) it’s been challenging working out what I will actually end up doing with myself. There were periods where I put more pressure on myself to do so. I still don’t know what will do.

3) the process of doing things because they are fun takes some getting used to when one’s entire life was built around doing something useful to others

4) when one lives off of savings it’s almost easier to spend as it feels like you didn’t suffer for it. Getting depressed at work makes it easier to spend more money outside of work

5) the “number” people need to retire (or not work for extended periods) is probably less than people realise

6) not working in finance (amongst all the moral corruption everywhere) has generally made me happier in part because I can live in a way which is more in-keeping with my values over having constantly breach them for work reasons

7) owning my calendar is a big freedom. I don’t have to ask a boss if I can do something all the time. No need to explain yourself.

8) not constantly having to submit to a boss is huge. One can really grow this way, as constant repression to other people’s whims is soul crushing and shows just how close employment is to slavery (especially in finance with golden handcuffs)

New comment by m101 in "The highest quality codebase"

m101 — Thu, 11 Dec 2025 15:44:23 +0000

This is a great example of there being no intelligence under the hood.

New comment by m101 in "Google Titans architecture, helping AI have long-term memory"

m101 — Mon, 08 Dec 2025 00:15:56 +0000

Prove it beats models of different architectures trained under identical limited resources?

New comment by m101 in "IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off"

m101 — Wed, 03 Dec 2025 14:07:11 +0000

To all those people that think IBM don't know anything. Calculate this number:

# companies 100+ years old / # companies ever existed in 100+ years

Then you will see why IBM is pretty special and probably knows what they are doing.

New comment by m101 in "IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off"

m101 — Wed, 03 Dec 2025 14:06:03 +0000

As evidenced by the fact that they are a 100+ year old company that still exists. People forget that.

New comment by m101 in "IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off"

m101 — Wed, 03 Dec 2025 14:05:01 +0000

How about check out how many companies exist today vs existed in 1958? If you look at it that way then just surviving is an achievement in itself and then you might interpret their actions as extremely astute business acumen.

New comment by m101 in "IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off"

m101 — Wed, 03 Dec 2025 14:01:29 +0000

Given power and price constraints, it's not that you cannot run them in 5 years time it's that you don't want to run them in 5 years time and neither will anyone else that doesn't have free power.