There's always Dunbar's number - the larger an organization gets beyond the capacity of people to socially know one another, the greater the "what do they even do?" types of attitudes form about other distant parts of an organization.

Oracle's credit rating is hovering just above junk bond level. I think the capital agreements are similar to an Adjustable Rate Mortgage and monthly so if there's another rate increase from the Fed and Oracle can't find anyone to buy their bonds and/or their free cash flow continues to be negative then maybe that is a pin-prick in the stock bubble? Its sort of like if you keep bouncing around from 0% credit card offer for 12 months to another and then you stop getting 0% offers, then its time to face the music (those usually have a 3% transaction fee, at least a long time ago they did).

In my experience, a track saw is immensely more useful than a simple circular saw or miter saw for finer woodworking or cabinet work. The other two are great for rough carpentry but tend to be harder to use for finer tolerances needed for finer woodworking. They are more expensive but because of the track you will get straight cuts with little setup. I've had issues with a contractor sized table saw even with it built into and secured in a DIY cabinet. Lifting and moving large sheets of plywood or assembled boards like a table top can be prone to more errors than setting up and moving a saw along a track. Really expensive table saws are probably better but as a hobbyist I don't have $3000 for a single tool.

I would argue if you're building plans to make a lot of repeatable items, then you're beyond hobby level.

I have a hard time thinking a neural net "predict the next token" is going to do things like solve math proofs or find cures for cancer when it gets very basic things blatantly incorrect sometimes.

2. Circular agreements - you get them to sell your goods/services in the region of their home country

3. These count as "Services" on the P&L and provide massive tax advantages to the company because these aren't treated as labor costs.

This may be from an old context in my brain since I worked with some of those companies, so those reasons may have changed or impact may have with various regulations, etc.

That might be a bad example ... replace english with nearly anything not related to prompting/coding. For example, I bet the models have "knowledge" of biology, chemistry, etc. not exactly useful for programming a SaaS web app that say does project mgmt. I think there's opportunity for very specific tooling rather than "general" knowledge.

Maybe people smarter than me know better but couldn't there be a middle ground where an IDE/Editor has an embedded engine (doesn't need to be a full-on LLM) that doesn't require external tool calls and token spend?

If an organization is paying $2400/year per developer for tokens and a highly intelligent editor/IDE comes around that charges $1000/yr and gets more output at a fixed cost, its a no-brainer of a decision.

I think VPS are going to be expensive because of the RAM and GPU requirements - 32GB RAM is beefy for a VPS and might run like $30/month on the cheap end. Thats $360/year so running something at home might be more secure, capable and cheaper. Remote/mobile access might be viable with something like tailscale.

Like I said, I'm not the target audience for a personal assistant. That does sound like a more ideal UX than what chat gippity and the others offer though. I would expect that with Meta - they really get the UX mostly right for people.

Most personal tasks take trivial amounts of time these days. Does a 5th grade teacher or an auto mechanic need a personal assistant? Do we need to be able to book a trip faster? It feels very gimmicky to me, but I realize I'm not their target audience.

Given that, I do think Meta will probably get the lions share of B2C AI and they have a proven track record of using personal data to serve ads and make a lot of profit. If they capture more of their user base's time, it keeps them engaged and away from a list of competitors. If Meta starts crushing it in this fashion I could see IPO's of OpenAI and Anthropic land like fart in church.

I think people put way too much emphasis on things like this with conclusions that they are faster and therefore its better. There is Pareto's law and a point of no return on invested time with this type of endeavor. I would feel better if people started off with "I did this because I can and I like doing things like this" vs. some argument that its better in some way.

I feel like his coaching leveled them up. It will be interesting to see if he writes any books about his process, etc.

Meta doesn't have a great track record of protecting data.

What would they use this for in their personal life? What does it unlock that they can't do today? Scheduling things? Buying things? These are so easy now for nearly anything. Reminders? phones have apps for that, computers do too. People can already dictate all sorts of things via speech (siri, etc.)

I totally get the professional use cases, I just don't see B2C other than gimmicky things. So I think that means Muse/Meta wins this out, people using that have already succumbed to giving up their data for "free".