Hacker News: mgh95

New comment by mgh95 in "Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]"

mgh95 — Sat, 01 Aug 2026 03:32:24 +0000

Cloud procider revenue is generally understood to be highly durable and safe because it is associated with both diversified customers and workloads which are expected to be reasonably constant in aggregate.

Zitron's point is thay OpenAI and Anthropic have generated considerable sector concentration in GCP and Azure. If the LLM sector were to contract in volume, this concentration could harm cloud providers financials more than what would normally be expected based upon their prior revenue streams.

New comment by mgh95 in "Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033"

mgh95 — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 03:56:06 +0000

I don't quite understand what you mean the narrative here -- cash flow going negative is a fact. Attempts to discuss the COLA issues in 1970s-1980s [1] have failed. Attempts in the early aughts to divert funds by Bush Jr. [2] (long before I could even vote) were rejected in part because of skepticism stock returns would not perform well. And even today where we have additional tax breaks for seniors under the OBBA.

This has been a long running "heads we win tails you lose" with the older generations toying with the future dating back ~50+ years. Statements about "poor houses" don't mean very much when even uncapping the tax on wages for social security would only close ~61% of the gap [3]. Cuts are coming.

[1] See for example this hill (https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4258578-the-day-the-soci...) article discussing he issue [2] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/bushs-shaky-retirement-pl... [3] https://www.crfb.org/socialsecurityreformer/

New comment by mgh95 in "Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033"

mgh95 — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 03:00:26 +0000

Social security is funded through payroll taxes on employees and emloyers. The "run out" is in the sense of the amount of money going out exceeds that coming in and the saved funds have been depleted. In this sense, it can "run out" that the savings are depleted and the plan is cash flow negative.

New comment by mgh95 in "Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected"

mgh95 — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 03:37:54 +0000

First I know what next is. Its standard enough.

Second, take this for what it is: your product may not be compelling in its current form. Building it to many different markets will not make it compelling. If you had a stronger revenue, please share it. This sounds incredibly thin.

Third, dont mistake building the same thing 20 times for different verticals for bonifide software skills. When a SWE builds the thing they have built before its usually to learn a language which is the easiest part of software. There is a reason a common adage in software is "9 women cant make a baby in a month". Breath is no replacement for depth.

New comment by mgh95 in "Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected"

mgh95 — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 02:39:26 +0000

Interesting. Where is this product located? If I'm looking at your profile correctly, this appears to be Openship[1], which is just a collection of starter templates from something from Nextjs and something called Keystone for each vertical. Is this what it is you are talking about?

I'm very curious how much revenue this is generating.

[1] https://github.com/openshiporg

New comment by mgh95 in "Software Is Becoming Marketing"

mgh95 — Sat, 27 Jun 2026 06:58:58 +0000

Having see what terminal vibecoding looks like (to the point where customers say "fix your app" during renewal conversations), I don't think this is likely to happen. There is definitely selection pressure being applied to SaaS companies and I would not expect people not directly responsible (PMs, sales, etc.) to be willing to accept responsibility for technical outcomes; after all they are product, not software experts.

It is possible this leads to a decrease in salary (and positions) but I do not believe the social commentary will pan out in the manner the author proposes. The people who most argue for vibe coding will themselves never accept responsibility for the technical outcomes.

New comment by mgh95 in "The Redistribution of Housing Wealth Caused by Rent Control [pdf]"

mgh95 — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 05:05:09 +0000

Because then the units fall into disrepair (because they no longer make sense to maintain) leading to less supply leading to lower availability of units leading to higher cost of housing.

See what happened in NYC regarding the consolidation of housing units.

New comment by mgh95 in "LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do"

mgh95 — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 08:54:59 +0000

Also in OFAC compliance. It just comes up in a lot of places where workflows are compliance heavy.

New comment by mgh95 in "LLMs are eroding my software engineering career and I don't know what to do"

mgh95 — Sun, 07 Jun 2026 23:35:28 +0000

Compensating controls also come up in the context of BSA/AML.

New comment by mgh95 in "Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?"

mgh95 — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:52:08 +0000

Not really. Social security is a defined benefit plan that requires new payors to fund todays expenses. 401ks are a defined contribution plan. Very different.

New comment by mgh95 in "Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute"

mgh95 — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 21:19:57 +0000

This is true in a "yes but" sense. Typically equities of the mega caps benefitted from debt issuance on the expectation it would accelerate growth. The change to equity value loss is what is interesting: the market no longer sees this as generating growth, at least not like it used to.

New comment by mgh95 in "Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute"

mgh95 — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 21:17:36 +0000

Sure but people are no longer expecting these kinds of actions to generate equity gains. Before it was expected the growth would outpace the cost of capital, leading to equity appreciation. The directional change is what is interesting.

New comment by mgh95 in "Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute"

mgh95 — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 21:05:55 +0000

Interesting how the market has reacted to this news (down 1.7% after hours)

New comment by mgh95 in "Private equity bought America's essential services"

mgh95 — Thu, 28 May 2026 01:32:53 +0000

In practice this is exactly how they work, whether it was intended or not. Otherwise it would look a lot less like a defined benefits plan and more like a defined contribution plan.

New comment by mgh95 in "Private equity bought America's essential services"

mgh95 — Wed, 27 May 2026 22:31:35 +0000

> You seem to be quite confused about pensions, not only "old people" have pensions. Actually the vast majority of contributions to pensions funds come from people who aren't old at all and are actively employed.

This is exactly how pensions work: newer members to the defined benefits plan pay for older members. This isn't surprising.

> Where would they "scream"? On the internet? And who'd hear them? The answer is nobody in any PE cares about anyone screaming.

At the ballot box. There is a reason that public pensions are exempt from the PBGC reserve ratio requirements. People with pensions aggressively vote their interest.

New comment by mgh95 in "Uber’s COO says it’s getting harder to justify money spent on tokenmaxxing"

mgh95 — Tue, 26 May 2026 00:29:59 +0000

Blockbuster actually did try to beat everyone to streaming. Notably, Blockbuster and Enron [1] entered into a 20-year partnership for online video delivery.

Sears was a different story, in that they were a real estate company with a store front and retail real estate took a nosedive due to ecommerce. But that's a different discussion.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal

New comment by mgh95 in "Hawaii just found a way around Citizens United. Other states are following"

mgh95 — Tue, 26 May 2026 00:26:03 +0000

Not necessarily. Unions are typically organized as a not-for-profit. The legislation acts on all entities including unions.

New comment by mgh95 in "The four-day workweek in Australia: insights from early adopters of 100:80:100"

mgh95 — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:19:48 +0000

> It's a privilege to come into this country, its a privilege to live in Sydney. If you don't like it, you can leave.

I hate to put it like this, but that's exactly what the poster is doing.

New comment by mgh95 in "Claude.ai unavailable and elevated errors on the API"

mgh95 — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 19:52:47 +0000

if it's judged only by the time it is expected to be in use (work hours), reliability is likely even worse than the 24/7 measure.

New comment by mgh95 in "Mac mini will be made at a new facility in Houston"

mgh95 — Tue, 24 Feb 2026 22:31:01 +0000

Likely a combination of business-friendly policies (low tax, no employer payroll tax, etc.) and proximity to ports. Houston is the 6th [1] largest port in the USA.

[1] https://pangea-network.com/busiest-and-biggest-ports-in-the-...