<rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"><channel><title>Hacker News: mike_hearn</title><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=mike_hearn</link><description>Hacker News RSS</description><docs>https://hnrss.org/</docs><generator>hnrss v2.1.1</generator><lastBuildDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 11:56:10 +0000</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://hnrss.org/user?id=mike_hearn" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"></atom:link><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "U.S. science is in chaos"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>High interest rate environment usually means the government specifically is paying a better rate on its debt. Then other interest rates are downstream from that. Government interest rates aren't connected to returns on investment (or only very indirectly).<p>Tech investments don't come with interest payments usually, so if interest rates go up it pulls money into government and corporate bonds which are much lower risk. Why take a gamble on new tech that might lose you everything to get 10% ROI, if you can get 6% "risk free" in bonds?</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:27:46 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48582461</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48582461</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48582461</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Neither Amazon nor Uber have monopolies nor much of a network effect. Amazon retail is or was famously low or near zero margin with their profits driven by AWS. Uber's margins are not much better than any average business.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:41:26 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48572976</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48572976</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48572976</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, with Spending Hitting $34B"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>I don't think Uber was a great ROI for investors though. It lost almost all the money they gave it in return for a business with entirely average profit margins (average across all industries, far lower than average for a SaaS app).</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:39:48 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48572946</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48572946</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48572946</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "The only scalable delete in Postgres is DROP TABLE"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Oracle has ALTER TABLE [name] MOVE ONLINE INCLUDING ROWS [predicates]. This is basically what you want - it keeps only the data matching the predicate, it's efficient and it works without disrupting the app. That might be the edge you heard about.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 10:24:33 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48539218</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48539218</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48539218</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "The only scalable delete in Postgres is DROP TABLE"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>RocksDB and other LSM tree backed databases do have cheap deletes and updates, although you could argue that's because they make everything else expensive. If you have spare cores it can be a good trade though.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 10:06:59 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48539081</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48539081</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48539081</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Rome Fell and Nobody Noticed"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Disney?<p><i>> Walt Disney was born on December 5, 1901, at 1249 Tripp Avenue in the Hermosa neighborhood of Chicago, Illinois, United States. He was the fourth son of Elias Disney, who was born in the Province of Canada to Anglo-Irish parents, and Flora (née Call), an American of German and English descent</i></p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:32:05 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48537785</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48537785</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48537785</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Rome Fell and Nobody Noticed"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The Puritans fundamentally shaped American society and culture. They were English.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:30:59 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48537782</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48537782</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48537782</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Ask HN: What are you working on? (June 2026)"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>It's an important problem but how does this differ from TLS client certificates?</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2026 19:07:42 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48531341</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48531341</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48531341</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Elon Musk's role was 'instrumental' in the Belfast riots, researchers say"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>"Researchers" here means the CCDH, another front organization for Imran Ahmed. Ahmed isn't a researcher in any meaningful sense. He's a political activist whose answer to every political question is always more censorship, and he's involved in a nasty legal fight with Twitter/X which is accusing him of violating the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (i.e. illegal hacking). That's a major conflict of interest that Le Monde doesn't mention.<p>There's a whole article written about this guy because he's such a bizarre figure. Nobody can figure out where he gets his money or influence, he constantly changes the names of his organizations and it's unclear who works for or funds him. He has previously misrepresented his orgs as just grassroots activism yet they never identified who their activists are. Eventually investigative journalists discovered they were all Labour and Democrat party operatives, and it took several years for Ahmed to even admit he had any connection to these groups.<p><a href="https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/censorship-center-guise-combating-hate-covid-elon-musk" rel="nofollow">https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/censorship-...</a><p>Ahmed operates in the USA as well and has been instrumental in organizing advertiser boycotts of numerous different organizations, both on the left and right. The only consistent theme is he targets anyone outside the establishment consensus.<p>The motive underlying all of this stuff is that Britain's governing class has created a catastrophic mess and doesn't know what to do about it, so they grab onto the only idea they have: stop anyone talking about what's happening. They plan to implement the Soviet/Chinese approach in which they'll censor hard enough that reality itself stops mattering. It's the Tiananmen Square problem but for Britain. Nobody will riot when an "asylum seeker" gouges out their neighbour's eyeballs and then tries to behead them with a kitchen knife, if the only source of information anyone has is the BBC and friendly social networks where resharing the BBC is the only action allowed. And if they control all information then they can restore the cozy historical norm of two parties that agree on all the things that matter, with nobody else able to organize.<p>They had basically managed this from 2015 up until Elon bought X and uncensored it, which is why they're not going to rest until they have Musk in prison and/or x.com blocked by ISPs along with every VPN service that allows a bypass. The alternative would be to initiate a Gorbachev/Deng Xiaoping style reformation in which they admit their worldview is built on false beliefs with terrifyingly violent consequences.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2026 15:02:25 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48527881</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48527881</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48527881</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Cooling in Space"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>All the comments are negative so I'll play the devil's advocate. Here's the steelman case for SpaceX orbital datacenters.<p><pre><code>    # EARTH IS FULL
</code></pre>
It sounds ridiculous but the ability to build AI datacenters on Earth is nearly exhausted. The options are:<p>• USA, Australia. The electricity infrastructure has already bottlenecked and some datacenters like Colossus are being forced to build their own power plants, but that's also bottlenecked on gas turbine capacity. Hacks like recycling jet turbines only squeeze a bit more out. Terrestrial solar can't be used to escape this problem because you need the clusters to run at night too.<p>• Europe. Deindustrialized, EU Commission is anti AI, very expensive power, grid also bottlenecked. Forget it.<p>• Middle East. Had some datacenters until they got blown up by Iran.<p>• China. Got power but bottlenecked by trade sanctions. Might well do a big buildout when Ascend starts to be competitive, but Chinese demand is likely to absorb it.<p>• Latin America, Africa, south-east Asia, etc: bottlenecked by political stability, not pro-business enough, etc.<p>In space you don't need gas turbines because solar can be 24/7, political risks aren't there, you aren't bottlenecked by grid capacity. Even if it costs more to put stuff in space that doesn't matter if space is the only place you <i>can</i> put stuff.<p><pre><code>    # INFERENCE NOT TRAINING
</code></pre>
Trying to do backpropagation in space would be a bad idea. You need extreme locality in a single physical location for networking reasons. But a lot of modern AI load including training load is just inference, which only requires small pods not entire clusters, and bandwidth needs in/out aren't that high. Inferencing can fit on a satellite.<p>Space radiation isn't necessarily a problem. Bit flips can be tolerate to quite a high degree for inferencing because models can recover from corruptions in the activation stream or even some bad tokens.<p><pre><code>    # COOLING
</code></pre>
As the article lays out this isn't necessarily the problem people are assuming. Also there are candidate designs from decades ago for ferrofluid droplet radiators. These might be overkill but can in theory radiate huge amounts of heat without needing to launch big radiators.<p><pre><code>    # COST
</code></pre>
Unlike terrestrial data centers which are always bespoke projects, inferencing satellites can be mass manufactured. SpaceX and Elon in general are good at setting up mass production lines, and it seems apparent that SpaceX has no intention of throwing very high margin Nvidia hardware into orbit. The plan is to use Tesla's AI chips i.e. SpaceX could acquire accelerators at cost. This changes the cost calculations quite a bit. Although these accelerators might not be useful for training or research, most training workloads would stay on Earth so that doesn't matter (the inferencing loads moved into space would free up terrestrial hardware for training anyway).<p>The real wild card is if there's enough demand for a 'good enough' model that it's predicted to last the lifetime of the satellite. In that case the weights could be fabbed directly into the chips like Taalas does, and so the energy consumption would be far lower.<p><pre><code>    # BUSINESS CASE
</code></pre>
It's possible that datacenter construction goes the same way as nuclear and becomes impossibly expensive here on Earth. If so then SpaceX can end up with a near monopoly on new inferencing capacity, making them the gateway to AI and the new Nvidia.<p>What's especially confounding is that the mere existence of orbital inferencing might actually create that outcome, because politicians would find it much easier to squash datacenter / power projects to please activists if there is a genuine alternative!<p>Note: I'm not invested in SpaceX.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2026 11:32:15 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48526248</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48526248</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48526248</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Open source AI must win"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>It's possible but it's not linear. A modern AI training cluster is a supercomputer that uses very different architectures and hardware to a bunch of small PCs connected via normal networking. The networking advantage alone kills any chance of decentralized training.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 13 Jun 2026 10:31:20 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48515725</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48515725</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48515725</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Open source AI must win"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Yes it can be parallelized, it already is in real AI datacenters and no it doesn't help you. Like everyone else is saying, an AI datacenter is not just a bunch of gaming GPUs connected via normal ethernet and hasn't been for years.<p>At most a decentralized effort could contribute a little bit to some bigger centralized effort by doing inference and sandboxed CPU work. Modern model training isn't just backprop, it's got a huge and growing CPU and inferencing component too, which doesn't require intense inter-node communication. For instance, doing RL rollouts for agentic coding requires a lot of plain old inferencing and sandboxed containers for the models to practice in. The final results are just a set of rollouts and scores that can be uploaded back to a central datacenter for GRPO to adjust the weights (relatively cheap). But then, of course, you'd have to stick to models small enough to fit on people's computers so it'd never be competitive.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Sat, 13 Jun 2026 10:30:14 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48515713</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48515713</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48515713</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Ask HN: How are thinking efforts implemented?"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Don't work at a lab but I think they might be warping the probability distribution in the decoding step, at least to generate RL examples for training and maybe in production too.<p>There aren't other comments discussing this possibility at the moment, but you don't have to take the token predicted as most likely (greedy decoding). Most decoding strategies do something else which is where settings like temperature come in. So if you want the model to "think harder" you can track whether the current tokens are thinking or answer - in OpenAI's system that's called a channel - and then if you're in a thinking block you might get a model output whose top three predictions are:<p><pre><code>    60% <|channel=answer|>
    10% Wait, 
    5%  . The
    [...]
</code></pre>
Greedy decoding would stop thinking at this point and start answering, but you want the model to keep thinking so you skip that token and select the next most likely which is "Wait, ". The reasoning levels can map to the probability of skipping the channel change tokens.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 08:41:58 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48501524</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48501524</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48501524</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Switzerland wil have a referendum to cap population at 10M"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The paper was written in 2023. Citing numbers from years after it was published doesn't make sense, as it didn't make any specific claims about what would happen in future years. It was only pointing out that the narrative from pro-EU economists was false, which is what you wanted a paper for.<p>2022 had a catchup effect from COVID. Nonetheless exports and imports are both higher than in the 2010s, exports have been rising since 2023 and exports to the EU are currently increasing, not decreasing:<p><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports" rel="nofollow">https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports</a><p><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/imports" rel="nofollow">https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/imports</a><p><i>> Exports in the UK rose 0.2% month-on-month to £79.13 billion in March 2026 from £78.98 billion in February. Goods exports edged up 0.1% to £32.35 billion, driven by higher shipments to the EU (3.9%), while those to non-EU countries remained relatively unchanged.</i><p>The further we get from the actual date of leaving the less any specific trend can be argued to be caused by it though. It's especially tricky because lockdown impact was so massive it drowned out everything. But Brexit was years ago. None of the predicted economic disasters came true which is why its critics are reduced to playing with Excel.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 19:52:20 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48495540</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48495540</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48495540</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The various economic analyses are wrong, please see my other comments in this thread about that.<p>The national debt is certainly very bad, but that's because the country elected a very left wing government. It's not related to Brexit.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 19:38:06 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48495378</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48495378</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48495378</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Switzerland wil have a referendum to cap population at 10M"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>The UK went with the "hardest" exit possible in law, in which all integration was unwound, but trade levels continued on their pre-referendum trajectory. So it's not that hard, apparently.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 19:42:55 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481589</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481589</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481589</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Apple decided not to roll out Siri in EU after denied request for exemption"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Ah but look closely at those votes - do you see anything strange about them? Anything at odds with the idea that they are being cast by directly elected heads of government based on national policy programmes?<p>Edit: Nevermind, I'll be more direct.<p>What you linked to isn't the European Council that has elected heads of state in it. It's the votes of the Council of the European Union. Yes, this naming choice is astoundingly stupid, and because it's never been fixed despite many decades of confusion there are many who speculate the confusion is deliberate. It creates exactly the kind of false appearance of democracy that's tripped you up here.<p>The European Council, the one with Macron, Merz, etc in it, doesn't publish anything about their decision making process. There probably aren't votes. They don't approve or disapprove laws, either. Officially they decide things by consensus. Unofficially nobody knows because they all swear each other to secrecy.<p>The laws are approved by the Council of the European Union who are, theoretically, still ministers from the different governments i.e. a vote on a trade law would have trade ministers. In reality, that's not how it works either. You can easily verify it. Here's a random law that got approved recently by the 'democratic' parts of the system, on "the welfare of dogs and cats and their traceability":<p><a href="https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-9729-2026-INIT/en/pdf" rel="nofollow">https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-9729-2026-I...</a><p>Obvious questions one might ask include:<p>1. Why does dog welfare have to be imposed on members via transnational law they can't change?<p>2. Why are nearly all the votes of the Council passing with 95%+ support, all the time? Aren't they supposed to be from different political parties in different countries?<p>3. Is it really plausible that elected trade ministers from all over Europe travelled somewhere, met and had a meaningful debate about dog welfare?<p>The answers are respectively:<p>1. It doesn't and shouldn't.<p>2. Because they aren't real votes.<p>3. <a href="https://agenceurope.eu/en/bulletin/article/13873/27/eu-council-adopts-new-regulation-on-welfare-of-cats-and-dogs" rel="nofollow">https://agenceurope.eu/en/bulletin/article/13873/27/eu-counc...</a> says <i>"The EU Council adopted the regulation ... without debate."</i> (note the same naming confusion in the EU's own websites - they use "EU Council" to mean the body that approves laws, which isn't the body made up of heads of state that calls itself the European Council).<p>This law was waved through by some low level civil servants on behalf of the ministers. Probably neither group even read it. As is true for almost all EU law: most of the work is done by lobbyists.<p>So, when people tell you the EU is a democracy because of the Council, think about that. Or just ask them which council they mean, because they probably don't know themselves. Fun fact: there's also the Council of Europe which isn't connected to the EU at all.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 19:10:56 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481178</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481178</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481178</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>Yes, from money saved by leaving. EU membership cost would have been a fair bit higher than £350M/week by now as it's GDP indexed, even.<p>Or what are you trying to argue here? You expected tax pounds to have colours, that there was some separate bank account labelled "EU funds"?</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 19:05:04 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481101</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481101</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481101</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Apple decided not to roll out Siri in EU after denied request for exemption"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>No worries. It's called a Parliament despite not being one by the definition of the word, specifically to create this confusion.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:24:55 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48475966</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48475966</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48475966</guid></item><item><title><![CDATA[New comment by mike_hearn in "Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy"]]></title><description><![CDATA[
<p>There has been no negative impact. Every claim of negative impact falls apart when investigated. I wrote about one example on another thread:<p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48473246">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48473246</a><p>The actual data doesn't support any of these estimates.<p>Note the response of the guy I was arguing with. Faced with the reality that the sources he/she trusted are lying, they rejected the honest source they asked for because of "bias". This kind of motivated reasoning is everywhere in this debate. Quite annoying.</p>
]]></description><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:10:55 +0000</pubDate><link>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48475778</link><dc:creator>mike_hearn</dc:creator><comments>https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48475778</comments><guid isPermaLink="false">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48475778</guid></item></channel></rss>