Hacker News: mysecretaccount

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Let's Buy Spirit Air"

mysecretaccount — Mon, 04 May 2026 02:46:53 +0000

Even with your uncharitable framing I agree with both quotes.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "DeepSeek v4"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 11:32:45 +0000

> Chinese propaganda seems to hit very hard these days.

Assuming that everyone who disagrees with you is a propagandized bot is a terrible way to live. You will not learn.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "DeepSeek v4"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 11:30:34 +0000

> Hong Kong was snuffed out like a light.

I'm in Hong Kong right now. Seems like it is still here to me.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Will I ever own a zettaflop?"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 19:34:53 +0000

> If a million Claudes of compute were accessible, people would not be doing the same things they are now, but more so. They'd be doing very different things we likely can't imagine

You may as well make the same argument about commanding a billion Nintendo 64s. We cannot simply scale up Claude instances like you say, its ability to produce interesting output is bounded by the underlying model.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Will I ever own a zettaflop?"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 19:32:19 +0000

The "Claude part" is important here, though. If you believe we can produce AGI by simulating physics then the existing paradigm is far too slow. A zettaflop does not even get close, you can have a moon-sized computer and it probably will not be able to produce AGI using the current transformer-based, extremely slow, classical computing architecture. We need to improve the underlying computation paradigm.

This is why the focus on raw compute is a poor use of engineering time. We have plenty of it, we are just headed in the wrong direction.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Will I ever own a zettaflop?"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:09:33 +0000

The output undoubtedly improves when looping LLM output back into the model at inference-time, but there is a limit to this and it is still bounded by the acumen of the underlying model. You cannot just recurse these models with tooling and compute to e.g. solve new physics.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Will I ever own a zettaflop?"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:49:27 +0000

Using a single Claude agent, ask it to generate "new" ideas and it will generate an immense list. Ask it to rank those ideas by novelty and it will comply.

The results will be lackluster. Additional agents will not improve the result.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Will I ever own a zettaflop?"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 03:03:46 +0000

Fun post, but I find the industry's obsession with compute to be rather vapid, and this is a good example:

> One million Claudes. To be able to search every book in history, solve math problems, write novels, read every comment, watch every reel, iterate over and over on a piece of code until it’s perfect – spend a human year in 10 minutes. 50,000 people working for you, all aligned with you, all answering as one.

We are already near the limits of what we can do if we throw compute at Claude without improving the underlying models, and it is not clear how we can get big improvements on the underlying models at this point. Surely geohot knows this, so I am surprised he thinks that "one million Claudes" would be able to e.g. write a better novel than one hundred Claudes, or even one Claude.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%"

mysecretaccount — Tue, 30 Dec 2025 06:26:36 +0000

The poster to which I responded and the article are each speculating on the "why" for this contract. That said, we do not need to speculate about Cybertruck sales - Business Insider reported that Tesla sold only 5,400 of them in 2025Q3.

We know from this that they do not need the same level of third-party 4680 capacity, and (call it speculative if you so desire) this is the most parsimonious explanation for the L&F write down.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%"

mysecretaccount — Tue, 30 Dec 2025 05:19:58 +0000

> Tesla is actually starting to make cathodes in house via a dry process, which is why they are no longer buying cathode material from this supplier.

The latter part of this is speculative. Tesla may have begun shipping dry cathodes but it isn't clear that they're capable of matching the former third-party volume. Tesla would absolutely need the additional 4680 volume if Cybertruck sales were meeting their original projections (as opposed to now when they are ~an order of magnitude lower).

New comment by mysecretaccount in "AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 14 Nov 2025 17:12:57 +0000

I agree with both of you, but scaling isn't feasible with this paradigm. You could need continent-sized hardware to approximate general intelligence with the current paradigm.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "NASA chief suggests SpaceX may be booted from moon mission"

mysecretaccount — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 04:54:35 +0000

Clearly the poster is saying that SpaceX is "the billionaires".

SpaceX is majority owned by billionaires.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "How sober should a writer be?"

mysecretaccount — Sun, 19 Oct 2025 06:34:00 +0000

What is "low but not micro"? 80ug?

New comment by mysecretaccount in "U.S. investors, Trump close in on TikTok deal with China"

mysecretaccount — Wed, 17 Sep 2025 16:12:02 +0000

Enough with the tone policing. The original comment is accurate: Paramount seeks to install Zionist Bari Weiss. This is uncontroversially true.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "What Is Complexity in Chess?"

mysecretaccount — Mon, 01 Sep 2025 10:20:00 +0000

> We should have solved chess already. > We should be aiming to solve chess, but we are not even trying.

We are trying and we should not expect to solve it because the search space is massive. There are more legal games of chess than atoms in the universe.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]"

mysecretaccount — Fri, 04 Apr 2025 10:04:59 +0000

iPhone sales don't count as a US export when calculating the trade deficit? Does anyone have information on this? Seems like a major issue indeed.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong"

mysecretaccount — Wed, 05 Feb 2025 03:06:38 +0000

The upper class vacuuming up all profit, greatly exacerbating inequality, is a far bigger deal than the inflationary impact of immigration. Your analysis is poor.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza"

mysecretaccount — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 08:54:09 +0000

The timing of their acceptance of a 42-day ceasefire - whether now or eight months prior - bears little significance for the long-term outlook of Hamas or the civilian death toll in Gaza. Strange analysis to hang your hat on, Thomas.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza"

mysecretaccount — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 08:43:07 +0000

"[Hamas] should have taken the deal when it was first offered [because this list of people died afterward]" sure sounds like a moral argument to me.

New comment by mysecretaccount in "Israel, Hamas reach ceasefire deal to end 15 months of war in Gaza"

mysecretaccount — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 08:38:36 +0000

> 11,000 is not “tens of thousands.” It’s a horrible number. But horrible doesn’t mean numbers are meaningless.

The 11,000 figure the other poster cited is the approximate number of children that have been killed whose death was been identified and linked with a name by the Gaza Health Ministry in September. GHM was part of a barely functional government before 10/7 and now is part of a barely functional government in a war zone. The actual figure is significantly higher, but with a wide confidence interval: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/14/health/gaza-death-toll.ht...

Tens of thousands is not an understatement. Numbers are not meaningless, indeed.