Technically black swan might not be negative, but for all practical reasons, "black swan event" is what people call impactful unpredictable negative events and they expect those events to be negative. In other words, it is a synonym for "a disaster" of sorts, only "economical".

This is how an economist would call a disaster.

But situation was exactly the same before the AI. You would still get your wordpress, your React frontend and Java Spring backend.

AI doesn't change anything, it just takes the job of a poor slopper who made a living by coding React frontends. Anthropic just took their job, that's it, and you don't see the difference.

There is no break pedal on this stuff, it just rolls down the hill until eventually it doesn't. It's a runaway process that feeds itself.

Apparently deskilled people are making it look like this is normal and it supposed to be so.

But i can relate to that. Another examples of deskilling would be, of course, Java, and a more modern example - Rust.

That said, i don't think deskilling is solving mass-production problem. It was already solved with open-source software, or with a software as is.

Software is information and there is little to no cost of copying information. So mass-production isn't the problem that is being solved here.

IMO the problem being solved is that business need unskilled labor, that is slop.

You would think that if business is producing slop, it will be replaced with another business producing quality stuff. If that was so, over time, there won't be any slop on the market, but if you open your app store, you are welcomed by all kinds of slop.

Because slop is what they buy. Supply is only following the demand, business need to produce slop because people are buying it.

How many of you guys have Claude subscription? Do you know that 5 years ago i would be asking "How many of you guy have GitHub Copilot subscription"?

This is what people buy, so it is deskilling, but not a mass-production, it's just slop revolution, slop is the new norm.

The only thing that is unsettled here still is how many more people will lose their jobs and how much cumulative loss prisoner's dilemma will generate.

I saw random people on Internet suggesting to piggyback this disaster and dip into the crazy money that it is "generating", but in a zero-sum game somebody has to lose.

On the other front, people are saying that NVidia can't deliver stable drivers for like 15 months and they don't want to take software updates at all, they are more happy with last year's drivers.

I think this is a black swan event in the industry. A lot of people already suffered and more people will suffer still. Industry is going to change for sure, but probably not in a way that you would expect. Black swan simply doesn't work that way, it doesn't change industry in a good way, hence black swan.

[1]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/402969772_The_AI_La...

I only fear that this is manifestation of a wider phenomenon when new software developers are unable to maintain software created by old software developers. If that is so, they will try to simplify the software to what they can actually maintain and rewrite it into a form in which they can maintain it.

If i assume this is true, then all of this is annoying, but actually makes sense: Wayland is simpler than X11, so people will tend to maintain Wayland-related software rather than X11-related. Rust won't let unskilled coders to make some mistakes, so from their point of view it is going to be simpler to rewrite something in Rust.

Although, goodbye network-transparency, goodbye performance, goodbye stability. Oh well, but it's that time of the year.